RADIO
Michael Florio's fantasy football sneaky starts, pivot plays, and post-waiver waiver pickups for Week 16 of 2024. Start 'em as under-the-radar fantasy sleepers.
If you are reading this, congratulations! You have likely made it to the semi-finals in your league and are two wins away from the ultimate bragging rights. This is the fun time of year when you do not want to get too cute, but you also do not want to get complacent. It is a fine balance.
Last week, we saw several running backs get hurt. David Montgomery and Nick Chubb are done for the year, and Alvin Kamara and Sincere McCormick could miss time. While its awful, injuries open up opportunities for others and create more streaming options.
There are also good options at QB if you have been streaming there or if you lost Patrick Mahomes. Navigating the injuries may be the difference between winning your league and getting bounced.
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Sneaky Starts and Pivot Options
If you need a QB…
Cooper Rush has played better than he gets credit for. He has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in three of his last four games and finished as a top 10 fantasy quarterback in two of them.
This is also largely about the matchup. The Buccaneers have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. They have allowed a top 12 fantasy quarterback in nine of 14 games. Rush brings a safe enough floor to trust this week, with a higher ceiling than usual.
Since Week 11 the Bucs have blitzed 85 times, the second-most.
In Week 16 they play Cooper Rush who ranks 3rd-highest in fantasy points per dropback against the blitz in that time period...
Some sneaky shoot-out potential in that one. pic.twitter.com/sdMHPs1flQ
— Tom Strachan (@NFL_TStrack) December 18, 2024
Aaron Rodgers has been more floor than upside this year, but in classic Jets fashion, he is playing his best ball after they are eliminated. Two weeks ago, he threw for over 300 yards for the first time in years and last week he threw for 289, three touchdowns, and ran for 45 yards. Rodgers has averaged 23.8 fantasy PPG in that span. He faces the Rams, who have allowed the third-most fantasy PPG to QBs in the last month.
Drake Maye does not have the safest floor, but he brings upside. The Bills have been stingy to QBs for much of the year, but that has not been the case as of late. No team has allowed more fantasy points to QBs in the last two weeks. They have allowed the second most to the position in the last month.
The Bills are big favorites in this one and no doubt will put up points against the Patriots. That should lead to Maye, who is a certified playmaker, having to throw more a bunch. This is an upside-volume play.
Michael Penix Jr. is starting for the Falcons now. I am more excited about what this means for the Falcons pass catchers than for Penix himself. He does have a very safe landing spot though against the Giants, who get torched weekly. I would not want to trust Penix in his first NFL start with a chance to go to the fantasy championship on the line, but if you are looking for an option in two QB leagues, he is in play.
If you need an RB…
Jerome Ford went for over 100 total yards and a touchdown while averaging over 12 yards per carry against the best run defense in the league. With Nick Chubb out now, Ford should be the lead runner for the Browns.
With the QB change from Jameis Winston to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, I am anticipating more running than we have seen as of late. It could not come at a better time as the Bengals have allowed the most fantasy PPG to RBs in the last month and the third-most rushing touchdowns this season. He is a top replacement option this week.
Kendre Miller is in play if Alvin Kamara sits this week. Miller has seen 10 opportunities in two straight games and has averaged over five yards per carry in three of his four games. The Saints also throw to RBs eight times per game, on average, which is the second-most in the NFL. Additionally, Green Bay has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to RBs. Miller brings upside this week as an injury replacement.
Ameer Abdullah is someone I am plugging into several leagues this week. He led the backfield in snaps played last week and saw seven targets. He scored nearly 20 fantasy points last week. The week before Sincere McCormick took over, he scored 17 fantasy points, so the upside is there.
Especially this week against the Jags, who have allowed the third-most fantasy PPG to RBs. They are in the top five in catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns to RBs. He is very much so in play this week.
#Raiders RB Week 15 Usage (Sincere McCormick hurt early)
- Ameer Abdullah: 46% snaps, 3 carries, 21 routes, 7 targets (66 yds, TD)
- Alexader Mattison: 32% snaps, 7 carries, 8 rotues, 4 targets (24 yds)I am interested in Abdullah only because they get the Jags next week
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) December 17, 2024
While I prefer Abdullah, he won’t carry the workload himself. That means Alexander Mattison is also in play due to the matchup. I expect Abdullah to lead this backfield in carries. He is more of a floor play, but for those in deeper leagues, that could be enough to get him in the lineup.
Tyjae Spears saw an uptick in snaps and usage with Tony Pollard dealing with an ankle injury last week. Spears saw seven targets, catching six for 87 yards and a touchdown. He scored 27 PPR points and was the RB3 on the week. This week he faces the Colts, who have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to backs this season.
The Colts have given up explosive runs at the fifth-highest rate. In total, they’ve allowed the sixth-most fantasy PPG to RBs. He is risky as Pollard could be healthier, but he is an upside flier for those diving deeper.
Ty Johnson does not run the ball much for the Bills. Still, he has scored 13.5 and 17.3 fantasy points in the last two, because he is playing a bunch on passing downs. Last week he had 114 receiving yards. The floor is very low, but he brings upside for those diving deeper. Justice Hill is a similar type of play this week.
If you need a WR…
Keenan Allen is not someone you can pick up, but he is certainly someone you can elevate from your bench. Allen has scored over 20 PPR points in three of his last four games. He has four touchdowns in that span. Additionally, the matchup is fantastic. The Lions have allowed the third-most yards and sixth-most fantasy PPG to WRs. They have allowed the most yards to slot receivers. Allen is a strong start this week.
Jalen McMillan is starting to break out before our eyes. He has 13 targets, nine catches, 134 yards, and three touchdowns in his last two games combined. He’s averaged 20 fantasy PPG in that span.
McMillan is playing well in the Chris Godwin role as the number two option behind Mike Evans. He faces the Cowboys this week who have allowed the most passing yards since Week 11. He was a must-add off the waiver wire and is a very sneaky start.
Jalen McMillan has been separating at an elite rate on vertically breaking routes, per @FantasyPtsData ASS. See below since week 7 (among 120 WRs, min. 25 routes):
- 0.195 Separation Score (5th among 120 WRS)
- 19.5% Win Rate (7th)McMillan is finally producing as of late too,…
— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) December 18, 2024
Adam Thielen and Jalen Coker are in play this week against the Cardinals. They were the top two targets for Bryce Young last week with Thielen seeing seven and Coker seeing six of them. Thielen has topped double digits in three straight with over 19 in two of those. Coker has scored over 17 fantasy points in two of his last four games. Thielen is certainly the safer option, but Coker is an upside shot.
Keon Coleman returned last week and played over Amari Cooper. He only saw two targets but came down with a 64-yard catch. The floor is very low, but he is tied to a great offense and his QB is the front-runner to be the MVP. If you have to dive deeper, Coleman brings upside.
If you need a TE…
Hunter Henry is coming off of a down game, but he remains the top target for Drake Maye and has been mostly good with him as a fantasy asset. He faces the Bills, who have been tough on tight ends, but did allow over 100 yards to Sam LaPorta last week. Additionally, this is more about potentially chasing volume in a game where the Pats will likely be chasing points and have to throw a lot.
Pat Freiermuth has caught a touchdown in three straight games. He has put up 14.6 fantasy PPG in that span. He faces the Ravens now who have allowed the fifth-most yards to tight ends this season. They have been tougher as of late, but starting Freiermuth is hoping for a touchdown. He could see added volume if George Pickens is out, in a game the Steelers could be chasing points.
Brenton Strange saw 12 targets last week, catching 11 of them for 73 yards. It is a very Evan Engram-like stat line but that is the role he will be playing moving forward. The risk is it could be a one-week blip, but given the state of the Jaguars offense, he should remain involved. He faces the Raiders who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy PPG to tight ends.
Brenton Strange is a MUST-add if you’re in a tough spot at TE.
These are Evan Engram numbers when the team is healthy⬇️
12 targets, 11 receptions, 73 rec yards, 30% tgts/rtScrew the deep dive numbers. He can ball at the position.
Favorable matchup vs the Raiders this week📈
— LaQuan Jones (@RealDealFantasy) December 17, 2024
Chig Okonkwo saw 10 targets last week. He caught eight of them for 59 yards. It is difficult to trust as he had not had more than six targets in a game this season, but his best game of the year came after the Titans made a QB change. If you have to dive deep at the weakest position in the game, Okonkwo at least could see volume.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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