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John Johnson breaks down fantasy football rookie sleepers and risers for Week 10 of 2024. Which NFL rookies from 2024 could be fantasy football league winners?
We're officially past the halfway point in this NFL season. While a ton of the rookies have broken out and some have even settled into their roles, the NFL never stops changing. As the GOAT of all fantasy football podcasters, Sigmund Bloom, put it, there are "seasons within seasons".
Narratives around players can completely flip in a few weeks based on their last few performances. Remember in 2023, when Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane was "made of glass" and "couldn't last a full season"? He's missed zero games (due to a conveniently timed bye), and that's only because everyone is vulnerable to concussions.
So which players are the narratives changing for? Which first-year guys can help you get to the championship, fill in for injured players, or even have an outside chance at being a difference-maker?
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Pick Up Now: Jalen Coker
It looks like he might be the real deal. It's rare to see undrafted free agents at any position contribute significantly in their rookie years (or ever, for that matter), but the former Holy Cross Crusader is doing things, which is cool. Cokeheads, as his fans (really fantasy managers who are high on him) are called have been excited about some of his advanced metrics.
Mingo out the door clears the way for more Jalen Coker snaps the rest of the way
Coke Heads, rise up. pic.twitter.com/lhvEEcdAiP
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) November 5, 2024
Additionally, the team traded away both WRs Diontae Johnson (to the Baltimore Ravens) and Jonathan Mingo (to the Dallas Cowboys), clearing the way for (potentially) more targets for him.
89's Route of the Week - Carolina Panthers WR Jalen Coker @SteveSmithSr89 shows off the nuances in Coker's routes that get him open over the middle of the field. pic.twitter.com/kXN4fNKwI6
— Underdog (@UnderdogFantasy) November 7, 2024
While the title of this article has "searching for league-winners" in it, it would be tough for him to make a big difference. However, he could serve nicely as an injury fill-in at some point. Every little bit counts in helping boost your team to enough wins to make the playoffs.
Jalen Coker didn’t start getting a significant amount of reps until Week 5 and he leads the #Panthers in yards per reception, CROE, receiving EPA, YAC over expected, and air yards per target.
Feed this man imo.
— Jared Feinberg (@JRodNFLDraft) November 8, 2024
He could become the WR1 for the Panthers this year, and that may mean something.
Speculatively Pick Up: Jermaine Burton
The Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver has certainly been doing his best to bungle his opportunity with the team, routinely missing meetings and showcasing the bad attitude that he garnered infamy for at his college, the University of Alabama.
Jermaine Burton split release glance route. Love that he leans into the defender and plays physical to create separation. pic.twitter.com/oarDXrnydZ
— mike (@bengals_sans) November 8, 2024
The talent is certainly there, but he's just a bonehead. In fantasy football, all that matters is talent, and you're best off picking up players considering what their best outcome is. The worst-case scenario for every player is that they score zero points. Obviously, elite talents like running back Derrick Henry will not score zero points.
But that's why the worst-case scenario is irrelevant. If you stash him on your bench for a few weeks and he does nothing, so what? But if he gets more playing time and stops acting up, then he could be big down the stretch, especially in deeper leagues.
Jermaine Burton is a certified BUM
Gets suspended for sleeping in, and then the day after a game he’s sitting at a slot machine by himself
IN THE SAME HOODIE HE HAD ON THE DAY BEFORE
Bum. pic.twitter.com/8O5LMT13MI
— Football Fanatics (@FFB_Fanatics) November 4, 2024
He'll need to clean his act up, but anyone that has (or should've had) anything close to first-round draft capital likely has upside that could be exploited. If he gets worked into the offense and his fellow WR Tee Higgins (quad) continues to struggle with injuries, who knows what could happen.
Cheapest He'll Ever Be: Jonathon Brooks
The Carolina Panthers paid Chuba Hubbard a bunch of money. He signed a four-year, $33.2 million contract. It was somewhat of a strange move -- they probably could have signed him for less, and they already paid his backup, Miles Sanders, a nice chunk of cash before last season, when they signed him to a four-year, $25.4 million deal.
Miles Sanders: 4 years, $25.4M
Chuba Hubbard: 4 years, $33.2M
Jonathon Brooks: 46th overall pickWut? pic.twitter.com/zW2eAIuRfI
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) November 7, 2024
The most sensible thing to expect now is that the team wants a situation similar to that of the Detroit Lions, who have both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs playing at very high levels, and switching off drives with each other. The presence of the two puts significant and unique strains on defenses.
While Brooks and Hubbard don't profile similarly to the two, they can both be productive (provided the rookie is fully healthy), though the freshman may not be fully unleashed until next season. This isn't great news for fantasy managers who hoped that he would take over the backfield eventually and that Hubbard would be released or traded.
Still, there's some potential PPR upside to be had. You may be able to acquire him in some of your leagues for minimal assets, or he may have been dropped in many leagues. He's at least worth giving up a speculative player or picking up off free agency as a bench stash. Don't forget that his excellent talent made him a second-round draft pick.
Also The Cheapest He'll Ever Be... Malik Nabers
This can be a relatively short section. Nabers has historic target share dominance, is extremely good at football, his quarterback, Daniel Jones, loves him, and his head coach is still scheming up plays for him. He also has a ridiculously easy stretch of schedule coming up. In Week 10, he gets the Carolina Panthers.
Week 9 leaders in first read target share via @FantasyPtsData
Darnell Mooney 52.9%
Jakobi Meyers 47.8%
Ja'Marr Chase 45.5%
Marvin Harrison 45.5%
JSN 42.1%
Malik Nabers 41.7%
Josh Downs 41.2%
Courtland Sutton 41.2%
Calvin Ridley 40%
Noah Brown ????? 40%
Tae Adams 39.3% pic.twitter.com/C82ztlEArW— Andy (@andy_buckler) November 5, 2024
The Giants had an odd game in Week 9. Jones threw just 26 times. He averages over 33 passes per game. The Panthers do have a bad run defense, and New York's running backs could have a field day against them, but we're just talking about Week 10. The Giants have a bad pass defense and will throw the ball much more down the stretch.
Most fantasy managers probably don't want to sell Nabers for a reasonable price, but if there is one in your league who wants to, you should jump on it. He could be a league-winner -- numbers closer to his early-season stretch are highly likely soon.
Buy Now: Ladd McConkey
After a monster game in Week 8, where he exploded for 29.8 PPR fantasy points by catching all six of his targets for 111 yards and two touchdowns, McConkey fell back to Earth in Week 9, scoring 11.4 FPTs on five catches for 64 yards. However, there's little question left as to who is the team's leading receiver.
Jim Harbaugh on Ladd McConkey:
“I watch the film of Ladd and he reminds me of Steve Smith.” pic.twitter.com/B8oKm2hZzx— Ryan DePaul (@RyanDePaul) October 28, 2024
He's been brutalizing press man coverage at one of the best rates in the league -- on a per-route basis, he gains the second-most yards in the league when defenders attempt to press him. The first is Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown. Most NFL followers are well aware of how good Brown is.
If Ladd McConkey is hit in stride here, he might just house this for 70 yards. pic.twitter.com/iKqDgEiU5O
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 4, 2024
He's not really been coverable so far. If the Chargers keep up their elevated rate of passing (thanks Greg Roman?), No. 15 could be a league-winner.
About To Go Off, Buy If You Can: Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Whatever a nightmare matchup is for running backs, this is the opposite. Tracy will face his toughest... just kidding, absolute easiest test of the season when he faces the Carolina Panthers in Week 10. They're atrocious against running backs this season. The loss of their best defender, defensive tackle Derrick Brown, really screwed them over.
Running back fantasy points vs. the Panthers.
Good news for Tyrone Tracy Jr. managers.
(sorry had expected points in first tweet) pic.twitter.com/mvE,kb90Yvl
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) November 6, 2024
Usually the pattern goes like this. Rookie has his first big game. Everyone wants him. Rookie has a mediocre game. Everyone cools off. Rookie has another big game. Everyone wants him again. Rookie has another bad game. Everyone cools off again. That's two cycles of cooling off. You don't want to wait for a third.
After the third, people can become entrenched in the idea that he really is that good, and demand more for him. Don't wait for that to happen. You should be able to get a solid deal when trading for him.
Stash If You Need A Tight End: Ja'Tavion Sanders
The tight end hell we were in for a few weeks has lightened up. But you should be more concerned with season-long upside rather than a few good games. Assuming a player who's had a solid stretch will continue to be great all season isn't the best idea.
Ja'Tavion Sanders.
pic.twitter.com/taf7Jaicyn— Claudia 🤘 (@TexasEx10) November 3, 2024
Maybe the return of fellow tight end Tommy Tremble (back) will cut into his playing time. That would suck. But Sanders is worth an extra look. He saw 85% of snaps last game. Some people are still desperate for a tight end, and even if you're not, this guy is worth keeping your eyes on.
Ja’Tavion Sanders 📈📈📈
I really like how Sanders has an knack for creating windows for his QB to throw him open and his RAC ability is a very underrated trait for a bigger guy.
Dan Morgan, kudos ! pic.twitter.com/L3Oy1o4WFe
— IAmWestsideFetti 💙🖤🤟🏾 (@4MR_Fetti) November 7, 2024
So What Should I Do If I Want To Win My League?
Make sure you read everything! Seriously. There's some good info here. Then go pick up some of these guys!
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