RADIO
Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 28 of the 2023-24 season, starting on 3/9/2024. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.
The EPL season rolls on and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We have a huge weekend of EPL action this week. The top two clash on Sunday in a game that'll go a long way to determining where the title ends up this season. We have fourth and fifth play each other in a game that could have big ramifications for Champions League qualification. And there are big matches at the bottom end of the table with relegation looming over a handful of clubs.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @LucidMediaDFS, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
Saturday, March 9, 2024
Manchester United (-115) vs. Everton (+300) - 07:30 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Manchester United 2 – 0 Everton
Manchester United may have lost their last two games, but appear overpriced. They have been inconsistent, yet opponents Everton have been consistently poor. They're without a win in their last 10 EPL games and scored just seven goals in that span. On their travels, Everton have picked up two points in five games (scoring twice). It's difficult to see anything but a home win.
Fantasy Player Pick: Diogo Dalot
While United should win this game, they have few standout fantasy options with Rasmus Højlund out injured. Banking on them to keep a clean sheet makes sense given Everton's struggles to score. Dalot has been a regular at full-back throughout the season and is fourth on the team for most shot-creating actions (55). Dalot is a reliable if unspectacular play this week.
Bournemouth (-285) vs. Sheffield United (+700) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Bournemouth 3 – 0 Sheffield United
Sheffield United is a club in shambles so it's difficult to think they will get anything from this (or any other) game. They are on course to set the EPL record for most goals conceded. They have been better away from home, but the 30 goals conceded on their travels are joint most in the league. Seven of their 13 away games have seen three or more goals while 17 of Bournemouth's 26 games this season have hit on over 2.5 total goals.
Fantasy Player Pick: Dominic Solanke
If playing at home to the league's joint-worst away defense wasn't enough, Solanke also gets the other joint-worst away defense in midweek. Bournemouth's rescheduled game with Luton Town takes place on Wednesday. Bournemouth's double gameweek made Solanke the perfect captain option in FPL but the two opponents couldn't have been any better. If you still have it available, triple-captaining the Bournemouth forward is the play.
Despite consecutive blanks, is Dominic Solanke a must-own in #FPL with these fixtures coming up? pic.twitter.com/T1qLla5jl9
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) March 4, 2024
Crystal Palace (-130) vs. Luton Town (+360) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2 – 1 Luton Town
It's still too early to know how Palace will play under new manager Oliver Glasner. Especially given his first game in charge was against a Burnley side reduced to 10 men in the first half. Five of their last six EPL games have seen both teams score while eight of Luton's last nine league games have seen a goal at both ends. I expect a home win but it's the same odds for both teams to score so I'd rather bank on the latter.
Fantasy Player Pick: Eberechi Eze
After missing Palace's previous four EPL games, Eze returned to their starting XI last weekend. He got his name on the scoresheet for the fourth time in his last four starts and sixth time this season. Despite only starting 14 games this season due to injuries, Eze has eight goal involvements and should be able to make it nine against a Luton side that's conceded four goals in each of their last two away games.
Wolves (+155) vs. Fulham (+175) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Wolves 2 – 1 Fulham
Fulham's victory at Manchester United two weeks ago was only their second away win (13 games) this season. Only the league's bottom two sides have scored fewer goals than Fulham (13) away from home. Wolves have won six of their last ten games so their form has been solid. They've faced six of the current bottom ten teams in the league at home so far, winning four of them. The odds for a home win are too juicy to miss out on.
Fantasy Player Pick: Pedro Neto
Neto failed to add to his 11 assists this season against Newcastle. That was in part due to a hamstring issue forcing him off at halftime. He is expected to be fit to face Fulham but is one to keep an eye on in DFS. If Neto does start, he will be looking at avoiding a three-game streak without a goal involvement for the first time this season.
Arsenal (-450) vs. Brentford (+1000) - 12:30 p.m. EST
Score prediction: Arsenal 3 – 1 Brentford
Arsenal have started 2024 by breaking all kinds of records. They've won all seven games, scoring 31 goals, although their streak of scoring two goals in eight consecutive halves of football ended on Monday. Brentford's problem has been keeping teams out, with 28 goals conceded in that run. Both teams scoring has appeal. Arsenal could easily run out comfortable winners so taking over 2.5 goals is a safer play.
🚨 𝗔 𝗡𝗘𝗪 𝗥𝗘𝗖𝗢𝗥𝗗 🚨
Arsenal have scored the most goals in 7️⃣ consecutive Premier League games ✨
A record previously set by reigning champions Man City in the 2017/18 season ⏮️ pic.twitter.com/EBOHGreotF
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) March 4, 2024
Fantasy Player Pick: Martin Odegaard
Kai Havertz has a goal and an assist in three consecutive games. Bukayo Saka is averaging 11 FPL points per game over the last six matches. But I'm going with the Arsenal captain as my pick. He's been in scintillating form of late and has two goals and three assists in the last four games. His performances have coincided with Arsenal's goal-scoring glut and will be instrumental in the Gunners' bid to go top of the table.
Sunday, March 10, 2024
Aston Villa (+135) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (+170) - 8:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 – 3 Tottenham Hotspur
The race for a top-four finish heats up and this would normally be the 'game of the weekend'. It should still see plenty of goals. Aston Villa's games have averaged 3.56 goals while Tottenham's have averaged 3.62 goals. Tottenham's last nine games have seen both sides score and at least three goals. Each of Villa's last six games has seen at least three goals scored. Over 2.5 goals has the better odds but playing both teams to score is just as appealing.
Fantasy Player Pick: Ollie Watkins
Watkins is on course to be the FPL points leader by the end of the season. Another brace last week has seen him take his tally to 16 goals and 15 assists this season. He scored in the reverse fixture and with 11 goal involvements in his last six games, Watkins could easily end up with another double-digit points haul for FPL managers.
Ollie Watkins has more double-digit hauls than blanks in his last eight Gameweeks 😳
Is he the most essential player to own in FPL right now? 🔥#FPL pic.twitter.com/1tq5XXWObO
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) March 7, 2024
Brighton (-135) vs. Nottingham Forest (+340) - 9:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Brighton 2 – 1 Nottingham Forest
Brighton's Europa League campaign all but ended on Thursday. Whether they suffer a hangover of sorts this weekend remains to be seen so backing them to win might not be a good idea. Eight of Forest's last ten games have seen them score and concede. That same outcome has occurred in 12 of Brighton's 13 home games this season. Backing both teams to score looks like the best play this weekend.
Fantasy Player Pick: Simon Adingra
After scoring twice in his first game back from winning the African Cup of Nations, Adingra blanked and then started on the bench last weekend. With Kaoru Mitoma now set to miss the remainder of the season, Adingra will be needed to provide a spark for a stuttering Brighton attack. Four of his six goals have come at home and with Forest averaging 2.38 goals against away at top-half teams, Adingra is in a great spot.
West Ham United (-155) vs. Burnley (+400) - 9:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: West Ham United 3 – 0 Burnley
West Ham appears to have turned the corner. They've won back-to-back games scoring seven goals in the process. That followed a run of six winless games and scoring just three goals in that run. Burnley looks resigned to relegation. They've picked up just two points from their last nine games. Burnley's also conceded 18 goals in their last six games. Anything but a comfortable home win doesn't bear thinking about.
Fantasy Player Pick: Mohammed Kudus
Jarrod Bowen and James Ward-Prowse should be on the radar this week. But I'm backing Kudus to shine. West Ham's three straight losses offered no returns but he's tallied an assist in each of the last two games. In a game the Hammers should dominate, two-goal involvements aren't out of the question.
Liverpool (+190) vs. Manchester City (+130) - 10:45 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Liverpool 1 – 1 Manchester City
The game of the week sees the top two go head-to-head. A case can be made for either team to win but I'm hedging on a draw. If it's level in the second half, neither team will want to risk losing. When these two teams, we can expect goals. They've faced each other 14 times over the last five years in all competitions. Both teams scored in 12 of those games. That's something we should expect again this week.
Fantasy Player Pick: Phil Foden
Foden has emerged as City's focal point in attack. He's scored three goals in the last two games taking his total to 11 goals and seven assists this season. His 158 FPL points rank fourth among all players and third among midfielders. Foden has 110 shot-creating actions (sixth most), 83 shots (tied third most) and 34 shots on target (fourth most). His all-round attacking threat shouldn't be underestimated.
It's back-to-back double-digit hauls for Phil Foden 🌟#FPL #MCIMUN pic.twitter.com/ychx2c1IS6
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) March 3, 2024
Monday, March 11, 2024
Chelsea (-115) vs. Newcastle United (+260) - 3:00 p.m. EST
Score prediction: Chelsea 2 – 2 Newcastle United
Chelsea failed to bounce back from their EFL Cup Final disappointment and their form continues to see them drop down the table. Newcastle's form has been erratic for most of the season. However, their only defeat in the last six games came at Arsenal. One thing that looks certain is plenty of goals being scored. Newcastle's eight games in 2024 have seen a total of 40 goals. Chelsea's last five games have totaled 21 goals.
Fantasy Player Pick: Alexander Isak
After missing three games due to an injury, Isak has started Newcastle's last two EPL games. He scored last time out against Wolves, his 11th goal of the season (16 starts). Isak scored in the reverse fixture and with Chelsea having kept just three clean sheets at home this season, he will fancy making it 12 on the season.
Betting Picks
The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Man United 2 – 0 Everton | Man United -115 | U2.5 +120 | No +135 |
| Bournemouth 3 – 0 Sheff Utd | Bournemouth -285 | O2.5 -185 | No -105 |
| C. Palace 2 – 1 Luton | C. Palace -130 | O2.5 -120 | Yes -130 |
| Wolves 2 – 1 Fulham | Wolves +155 | O2.5 -115 | Yes -150 |
| Arsenal 3 – 1 Brentford | Arsenal -450 | O2.5 -240 | Yes -105 |
| A. Villa 2 – 3 Tottenham | Tottenham +170 | O2.5 -300 | Yes -320 |
| Brighton 2 – 1 Notts Forest | Brighton -135 | O2.5 -165 | Yes -165 |
| West Ham 3 – 0 Burnley | West Ham -155 | O2.5 -145 | No -140 |
| Liverpool 1 – 1 Man City | Draw +270 | U2.5 +150 | Yes -230 |
| Chelsea 2 – 2 Newcastle | Draw +310 | O2.5 -225 | Yes -230 |
| Season totals | 136/266 | 149/266 | 154/266 |
| Season parlays | 2/26 (-18.27u) | 6/26 (+7.14u) | 8/26 (+17.54u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
