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The fantasy baseball season is quickly approaching, and we are less than 55 days until Opening Day. The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers will start the season on March 20 in Seoul, South Korea. The rest of the MLB will start their regular season on March 28.
That means you might have to start your fantasy baseball drafts one week earlier. Don't worry, though, because RotoBaller will have you covered with all types of content leading up to the season opener, including sleepers, busts, and plenty more.
In this article, I will go through three first basemen I think will bust in 2024. These three players are currently going somewhere in the middle to later rounds and should be avoided at their ADP. So, let's dive in and see which players will bust this season.
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Many people might be surprised to see Cincinnati Reds first baseman Spencer Steer on this list. After all, he's coming off a strong 2023 campaign where he finished sixth in the National League Rookie of the Year voting. On the year, Steer hit .271 with 37 doubles, 23 home runs, and 86 RBI across 156 games. That seems like pretty good numbers for a rookie who will likely build on that in 2024.
However, there is reason to be skeptical about Steer's 2023 production and if it will translate to 2024. For starters, the metrics suggest that the 26-year-old might have gotten a little lucky at the plate. His hard-hit rate (37.1%), barrel rate (6.7%), and average exit velocity (88.7 mph) were all below league average last year. His expected batting average was also at .252, 19 points lower than what he finished the year with.
The 10.2% walk rate was a nice sign to see as a rookie, and Steer did put together a solid rookie campaign. But he's just too risky to take a gamble on. The 26-year-old is roughly the 10th first baseman off the board in drafts this year and is going inside the top 100 in most leagues. That seems a bit too high for a player who doesn't do anything at an elite level.
Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox first baseman Andrew Vaughn was selected third overall in the 2019 MLB Draft. But he has yet to showcase his full potential in the majors. Vaughn has a career .256 batting average with 53 HRs and 204 RBI across three major league seasons. The 25-year-old is averaging 21 HRs and 80 RBI over those three years, which is exactly the numbers he finished with in 2023.
Vaughn hit a career-high 21 HRs, 30 doubles, and 80 RBI last year. He has also always hit the ball hard with a career 90.8 mph average exit velocity and a 47.4% hard-hit rate. However, the White Sox first baseman does not carry much upside in fantasy on an offense that might be bottom-five in baseball.
If Vaughn is not hitting the ball out of the park, there's going to be a lot of rough days at the plate. He strikes out a lot and barely walks. In 2023, he struck out in 21% of his plate appearances and only walked 5.9% of the time, both of which are around his career average. The young first baseman is likely better in points leagues, though there isn't a lot of upside he can provide for your roster this season.
Rhys Hoskins, Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers made a solid signing this offseason by agreeing to a two-year, $34 million deal with first baseman Rhys Hoskins. Hoskins missed the entire 2023 season after tearing his ACL in spring training, so there are going to be some struggles for him at the plate at times. When he steps on the field for Opening Day, he will have gone over 500 days without playing in a competitive baseball game. But that's not the sole reason why the right-handed slugger is on this list.
Hoskins should be more than healthy by the time the season begins, and there should be "little to no limitations" as he told reporters when he signed in Milwaukee last month. However, it's his landing spot with the Brewers that might really limit his production in fantasy.
With the Brewers just trading away Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, shortstop Willy Adames -- who is a free agent after this season -- could be the next player gone. That would give Hoskins fewer chances to drive in runs. Still, even with the current lineup in Milwaukee, it's not enough for me to love the first baseman, especially since his batting average has never been that great over his six-year career.
Hoskins only has a career of .242 BA and has hit under a .250 average in five of his six MLB seasons. The power will always be there for the 31-year-old veteran, who has hit at least 27 long balls in four straight full seasons. But how much time will it take for him to adjust back to the major league level after a full season off?
Like Vaughn, Hoskins is a slightly better player in points leagues, especially with his home run numbers over the years. But in roto leagues, he doesn't provide much outside of HRs and possibly doubles. This Brewers lineup is a big downgrade for the first baseman compared to Philadelphia, which could limit his numbers in 2024.
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