RADIO
Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 22 of the 2023/24 season, starting on 1/30/2024. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.
The EPL season rolls on and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
After the "winter break", we're back to a normal gameweek with all 20 teams playing over three days. Albeit this is a midweek set of fixtures. But with cup competitions and games-in-hand featuring in the coming weeks, this is about as standard of a matchday as we can expect between now and the end of the season.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @LucidMediaDFS, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
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Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Nottingham Forest (+600) vs. Arsenal (-240) - 2:30 p.m. ET
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 – 2 Arsenal
It's now two wins and two defeats for Nuno Espirito Santo in the league since he took over at Forest. They're still just four points above the relegation zone and are dealing with off-field distractions with the possibility of a points deduction for financial rules breaches. Arsenal ended a three-game losing streak in all competitions when thrashing Crystal Palace. It was a much-needed win that kept them within touching distance of the top spot.
All four of Forest's league games under Espirito Santo have seen both teams score. After keeping clean sheets in their first three away games of the season, Arsenal has kept just one in their last seven. Arsenal's lost on their last three visits to the City Ground and have a huge game against Liverpool on Sunday. An away win is far from a given but both teams to score seems the most likely outcome.
FPL Pick: Gabriel
It's not often I pick a defender as a pick, let alone a center-back. But Gabriel has an upside this week. Nottingham Forest (11) has conceded more set-piece goals than any other team this season while Arsenal (12) have scored the most. Gabriel could've had a hat-trick last weekend, scoring one, missing a free header, and having his second goal created back to him after it was awarded as an own goal.
The Premier League’s Goal Accreditation Appeals Panel upholds Arsenal's request to award Gabriel the second goal of their 5-0 win against Crystal Palace
It was first accredited as a Dean Henderson own goal. Learn more ➡️ https://t.co/fknB86725I pic.twitter.com/FEtQ5Eu5pY
— Premier League (@premierleague) January 26, 2024
Fulham (+145) vs. Everton (+185) - 2:45 p.m. ET
Score prediction: Fulham 1 – 0 Everton
Fulham suffered a heartbreaking League Cup exit at the semifinal stage earlier in the week. Only their 2-1 home win against Arsenal has provided any returns in their last five league games. Everton's draw with Aston Villa ended a three-game losing streak. They're just one point above the relegation zone following their 10-point deduction and they face the possibility for further punishment.
All 10 of Fulham's home games have had a winner and the losing side have failed to score in seven of them. Everton's four-game winless streak has seen them score just twice. Dominic Calvert-Lewin's miss last time out is symptomatic of a player and team struggling for confidence in front of goal. Fulham failed to score in four of their previous five games so goals will be at a premium here. A narrow home win looks on the cards this week.
FPL Pick: Raúl Jiménez
Fulham's last two league games saw them total four shots on target in both with Jiménez accounting for two in each game. He scored in their last home game against Arsenal. Four of his five EPL goals have come at home and Jiménez is averaging four total shots and two shots on target in his last three home games. If you're looking at a discount option up front to go big elsewhere, Jiménez at just £5.2m is ideal given Fulham's upcoming fixtures.
Luton Town (+380) vs. Brighton (-155) - 2:45 p.m. ET
Score prediction: Luton Town 2 – 1 Brighton
Luton continues to battle away and the pre-season favorites to finish bottom of the table find themselves just a point away from 17th place and safety. If they can remain within touching distance of the teams above them, they have a run-in that could see them secure Premier League status. After going 47 EPL games without a goal-less draw, Brighton now has had back-to-back nil-nil scorelines. They've blanked in three of their last five league games.
Brighton have failed to score at home for the first time this season.
They've now failed to score in back-to-back games for the first time since October 2022.#BHAFC | #BHAWOL pic.twitter.com/0Q78xp9p1K
— Soccerbase (@soccerbase) January 22, 2024
Although they've only taken eight points at home (10 games), no team has beaten Luton at Kenilworth Road by more than one goal. That's even having played seven of the current top-10 at home. Brighton's lack of goals comes despite having 70% possession in their last two games. Luton has had less possession than their opponents in eight of their home games. They've still scored in all but one home fixture. It feels like an upset home win.
FPL Pick: Alfie Doughty
Who else? My ride-or-die has four goal involvements in his last three games and is averaging 7.5 FPL points a game in his last four games. In the four games in which Doughty hasn't started for Luton, they've lost and that includes the only three games they've been beaten by more than a goal. He's become a crucial part of Luton's survival hopes while still only costing FPL managers £4.5m to bring him in.
Crystal Palace (-160) vs. Sheffield United (+450) - 3:00 p.m. ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 – 1 Sheffield United
After Palace's 5-0 defeat at Arsenal, I felt they would make a managerial change. They haven't and Roy Hodgson will need to turn around their form, which has seen the Eagles take six points from their last 10 games. Following their point against West Ham in a contender for the craziest ending in EPL history, Sheffield United has taken five points from their seven games since reappointing Chris Wilder as manager. They are yet to win on their travels.
This feels like a game that'll be edgy, tight, and have little in the way of excitement for the neutrals. Palace has failed to score in their last three games in all competitions and the ending against Arsenal felt like a side that is looking for inspiration. Sheffield United showed their fighting spirit but they still lack enough quality to stay up. They will continue to battle and make things awkward for many sides, but I can't see where their next win is coming from.
FPL Pick: Eberechi Eze
The fact that Palace's top scorer Odsonne Édouard started on the bench against Arsenal and never came on sums up the disjointed nature of their attack. Michael Olise is a huge loss, but Eze is doing his best to carry the side. He was the best Palace player on display against Arsenal and has now had 11 shots (four on target) in the last three games, scoring once. Palace has a total of 2.4 xG in their last three EPL games and need Eze's inspiration.
Eberechi Eze created the most chances (6), had the most dribbles (8) and won the most duels (10) vs Arsenal... while Crystal Palace lost 5-0. Special ⭐ pic.twitter.com/9E9ebrbTZW
— Fenomeno Football (@FenomenoFtbl) January 20, 2024
Aston Villa (-110) vs. Newcastle United (+255) - 3:15 p.m. ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 3 – 1 Newcastle United
Villa's form has been a bit up-and-down with two draws sandwiching a win and a loss in their last four EPL games. They drew their FA Cup tie with Chelsea on Friday, making it consecutive 0-0 draws in all competitions. Newcastle comes into this week having lost their previous four EPL games, despite scoring five in their last three. Having been one of the most frugal defenses, they've shipped in 18 goals in their last seven league matches.
The two teams' recent form points towards a home win. When we look at their home and away records, it looks like a banker home win. Villa's 28 home points from a possible 30 are the most in the league. Newcastle's five away points from a possible 30 are the second-fewest in the league. While I can see Newcastle upsetting the form guide and taking something from this game, their recent performances suggest both teams to score is a certainty.
🙃 Only Sheffield United (2) have earned fewer away points than Newcastle (5) in the Premier League this season pic.twitter.com/6Na1JClwQD
— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) December 31, 2023
FPL Pick: Douglas Luiz
The Villa midfielder has 97 points (10 games) this season, with 72 coming at Villa Park. After a minor barren spell, Luiz has scored or assisted in his last two. He also picked up the maximum three bonus points in those two games. I generally don't like bringing in someone for one game, but Villa is away to bottom-of-the-table Sheffield United next before another home game, so you have three matchdays where he can be a big points provider.
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Manchester City (-1100) vs. Burnley (+1900) - 2:30 p.m. ET
Score prediction: Manchester City 4 – 0 Burnley
The reigning champions haven't missed a step since returning from the World Club Championship. Three consecutive league wins, advancing in the FA Cup, and stars returning to fitness all feel ominous for the rest of the league. Burnley's last-minute heartbreak against Lut0n has kept them entrenched in the relegation zone. Things don't get any easier in the coming weeks with Liverpool and Arsenal their opponents on Matchdays 24 and 25.
While there appears to be some movement in the case against City's financial rule-breaking, it's been going on for so long it won't distract them on the pitch. They've scored eight goals in their last three league games and could have Erling Haaland back on Wednesday. City has had a habit of comfortably dispatching sides in the relegation zone at home and this game feels no different.
🚨🔵 𝐁𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐊𝐈𝐍𝐆 | Man City have been issued a hearing date for 115 financial breaches charges.
Progress on hearing could be made as early as next week, reports @TeleFootball. pic.twitter.com/q0evndrflQ
— EuroFoot (@eurofootcom) January 17, 2024
FPL Pick: Kevin de Bruyne
The Belgian maestro made a triumphant league return to league action at Newcastle. Despite only coming on as a sub after 69 minutes (nice), de Bruyne turned the game around, scoring the equalizer and then assisting the winner. If you've held on to Mo Salah in the hope he was returning soon and now need a replacement, who better than the City talisman?
Tottenham Hotspur (-175) vs. Brentford (+425) - 2:30 p.m. ET
Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 3 – 2 Brentford
Tottenham continues to keep pace with the top teams following their draw at Manchester United. Elimination from the FA Cup means they only have the league to focus on for the remainder of this season. Brentford was boosted by the return of Ivan Toney as they ended a five-game losing streak. They will hope his return and goals will help turn their misfortune around, given the 11.3 difference in their xGD and actual GD.
2023-2024 🏴 Premier League xG Difference Leaders
Arsenal (22.9)
Liverpool (21.7)
Manchester City (20.6)
Chelsea (11.9)
Aston Villa (10.4)
Brentford (7.3)
Brighton (5.1)
Newcastle Utd (4.1)
Everton (2.3)https://t.co/NyaCPCC3qF— ⚽ FBref ⚽ (@fbref) January 23, 2024
The 75 total goals in Tottenham games this season are the most of any club. While Brentford will find goals more easily to come by with Toney back, they've conceded 11 goals in their last four EPL games. He won't help with that. I can certainly make a case for Brentford getting something from this game, both teams scoring looks nailed on. That's happened in each of Tottenham's last six home games and six of Brentford's last seven games.
FPL Pick: Pedro Porro
Porro's attacking mindset makes him an ideal fit for Tottenham's style of play. While he still struggles defensively and chances will come from the gaps left by him getting forward, for FPL, he's an ideal option. His eight assists this season are more than any other defender. While he hasn't found the net himself, no defender has had more shots than Porro (34). He's also taking set-pieces, so he has plenty of routes to another solid points haul.
Liverpool (-155) vs. Chelsea (+370) - 3:15 p.m. ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 2 – 2 Chelsea
Liverpool's 4-0 win at Bournemouth extended their lead at the top of the table to five points. Following manager Jürgen Klopp's announcement that he'll leave at the end of the season, they'll want to give him the best send-off possible. While Chelsea remains unpredictable, they have won their last three league games. But their profligacy reared its head again against Aston Villa in the FA Cup as they drew 0-0 following a handful of missed chances.
These two sides have drawn their last five EPL meetings and their last seven in total. Liverpool's not beaten Chelsea at Anfield since July 2020 and while a home win looks most likely, Chelsea's capable of beating anyone on their day. The result will likely depend on whether or not Chelsea manages to take any of their chances. Chelsea's last seven away games have seen both teams score in six of them, so that looks the best play.
FPL Pick: Conor Bradley
Darwin Nunez and Diogo Jota should be atop your lists for Liverpool players to roster. But you should not be disregarding their young full-back. Bradley made his EPL debut against Bournemouth and will continue deputizing for Trent Alexander-Arnold while he's sidelined (or moved into midfield). At just £4.0m, he is the ideal cheap option, which will let you pay up elsewhere while still picking up points as and when he starts.
Premier League debut nerves?
Not for Conor Bradley, who gets an assist in a standout performance 👏 pic.twitter.com/2EK4ITPM8u
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) January 21, 2024
Thursday, February 1, 2024
West Ham United (+135) vs. Bournemouth (+180) - 2:30 p.m. ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 2 – 1 Bournemouth
West Ham will still be wondering how they didn't beat Sheffield United. The point at least kept them within touching distance of fifth place and extended their unbeaten league run to five games. Bournemouth bounced back from their second-half collapse against Liverpool by beating Championship side Swansea 5-0 in the FA Cup on Thursday. All five goals were scored in the first half, leaving them to coast through the second half.
Bournemouth was unbeaten in their previous seven EPL games before their back-to-back defeats against Tottenham and Liverpool. Their record away from home against the top-half sides isn't good. They've played five such fixtures, losing four and conceding 15 in those losses. They did score in all of them and while West Ham isn't fluid in front of goal right now, it's difficult to make a case for anything but a home win.
FPL Pick: Mohammed Kudus
If like me you kept hold of Kudus during the AFCON, your patience (or inaction) has been rewarded. Ghana's shock early elimination means Kudus is back and available to play for West Ham. He only featured in two of Ghana's matches (scoring twice) and will have had over a week off to prepare for this fixture. He's scored in each of West Ham's last three home games (four goals in total) and is set to give the Hammers a needed-attacking boost.
Returning from international duty 🔙
Will you be adding Mohammed Kudus back to your FPL squad? 👀#FPL pic.twitter.com/5HwKhaCS84
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) January 25, 2024
Wolves (+170) vs. Manchester United (+145) - 3:15 p.m. ET
Score prediction: Wolves 1 – 1 Manchester United
Wolves has now lost just once in their last seven league games and they come into this fixture unbeaten in their last four. A win on Thursday would see them leapfrog Manchester United in the table. For United, their draw at home to Tottenham meant they've won just once in their last six league games. It was also the fourth consecutive EPL game in which they've conceded twice.
While United's away record against sides in the top half of the table is dreadful (one point and one goal in five games), against the bottom 10 it's much better. They've won four of five such games, scoring in each of them and keeping three clean sheets. Wolves is unbeaten in their last eight home games and I don't see that changing. I'm struggling to see either team finding the net more than once, so a low-scoring affair looks likely.
FPL Pick: Matheus Cunha
Cunha has been one of the many bright spots for Wolves this season. He's got six goals and five assists in the league while registering five goal involvements in his last five home matches. The Brazilian has had three or more shots in five of his last six games and Manchester United has allowed the fourth-most shots in the league this season (315). With Hwang Hee-chan away on international duty, Wolves will need to rely on Cunha for goals.
Matheus Cunha's last 9️⃣ GWs:
⚽⚽⚽⚽
🅰️🅰️🅰️🅰️Just 5% owned in the Top 10K 🦄
(@LiveFPLnet) pic.twitter.com/wYuOVEzpnh
— Fantasy Football Scout (@FFScout) January 22, 2024
Betting Picks
The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Notts Forest 1 – 2 Arsenal | Arsenal -240 | O2.5 -150 | Yes -120 |
| Fulham 1 – 0 Everton | Fulham +145 | U2.5 -130 | No +115 |
| Luton 2 – 1 Brighton | Luton +380 | O2.5 -165 | Yes -160 |
| C. Palace 1 – 1 Sheff Utd | Draw +285 | U2.5 -140 | Yes +100 |
| A. Villa 3 – 1 Newcastle | A. Villa -110 | O2.5 -195 | Yes -210 |
| Man City 4 – 0 Burnley | Man City -1100 | O2.5 -300 | No -180 |
| Tottenham 3 – 2 Brentford | Tottenham -175 | O2.5 -210 | Yes -180 |
| Liverpool 2 – 2 Chelsea | Draw +330 | O2.5 -195 | Yes -180 |
| West Ham 2 – 1 Bournemouth | West Ham +135 | O2.5 -165 | Yes -200 |
| Wolves 1 – 1 Man United | Draw +245 | U2.5 +110 | Yes -200 |
| Season totals | 108/208 | 111/208 | 117/208 |
| Season parlays | 2/20 (-12.27u) | 5/20 (+8.77u) | 7/20 (+16.99u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
