Key Starters and Tough Calls - Week 16 Lineup Spotlights for Fantasy Football Include Jonathan Taylor, Rashee Rice, Trey McBride

December 24, 2023

Scott breaks down his fantasy football lineup starts/sits for Week 16 (2023). He spotlights key NFL players to start, and tougher lineup start/sit decisions.

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my Week 16 Lineup Spotlights - Key Starters and Tough Calls for fantasy football. Every week, I zoom in on some of my favored players to go with when dealing with challenging lineup decisions. These picks are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a discount and get access to my ranks in all formats, plus a full roster of tools and analysis for the remainder of the 2023 fantasy football playoffs.

We feature players that you should lean to in tough calls and guys who may exceed expectations this week are also highlighted, so you can feel even more confident about starting or adding them. Skill position analysis here is based on my PPR rankings.

When considering each player for your lineup, also consult our fantasy football rankings to see exactly where they are positioned when compared to your other possible lineup choices.

Running Backs – Fantasy Football Week 16

Jonathan Taylor

Fantasy players are naturally anxious about starting a player who is coming back from an injury layoff. It’s a legitimate concern to be unsure about a player’s level of production in his first game back. Will there be rust or even elevated potential for re-injury?

It does depend on the type of injury to evaluate those factors, and I am not a medical expert whatsoever. But as a fantasy analyst, my rule on players returning from injuries is if their NFL team clears them to play without any reports of the player being on a “pitch count”, then I clear them to play for my fantasy team. I go by the published reports to indicate the level of concern that I should have.

I expect #ForTheShoe Jonathan Taylor & Michael Pittman to return in Week 16.

Full workload with NO restrictions! https://t.co/qgQm3nzWaD

— Jesse Morse, MD (@DrJesseMorse) December 21, 2023

In this case, all published reports indicate that Taylor is good to go for Week 16 and I have no hesitation about recommending him as a back-end fantasy RB1 starter. He was removed from the injury report, which further reduces concerns about his overall outlook. The one issue could be catching passes out of the backfield after coming off thumb surgery. That factor does cap Taylor’s fantasy ceiling a bit, but I still like him enough against the Falcons’ middling run defense  (ranked 15^th in the NFL) to rank the Colts star as a back-end fantasy RB1 for Week 16.

D'Andre Swift

It has been hard to trust Swift during the fantasy playoff push, but he did tie a season-high with 18 carries last week, and the matchup with the Giants does point to him possibly coming through with one of his best games as an Eagle in the second round of the fantasy playoffs. The Giants rank 30^th in rushing yards allowed to RBs, and Philadelphia has the fourth-best run blocking grade of any team for Week 16 on Pro Football Focus.

The Eagles desperately need to take care of business against a hated rival, and DeVonta Smith’s knee injury could force the offense to adjust and lean more on other top available options, which include Swift. I am expecting at least adequate totals from the Philadelphia RB. When considering the opponent and the importance of the victory to stop a losing streak and remain in the running for a top NFC playoff seed, I want to ride with Swift for some actual upside.

Derrick Henry

If you had a first-round bye in the fantasy playoffs, or somehow managed to survive one of the worst performances of Henry’s career in Week 15, then gulp hard, put that memory behind you, and start him this week. Yes, he totaled 10 scrimmage yards on 20 touches and played a significant role in eliminating many fantasy teams from the playoffs. If he is on your roster, though, get ready for a rebound outing.

The longtime Tennessee standout will be playing in what may be his next-to-last home game as a Titan, and Henry undoubtedly wants to bounce back for pride and to make sure he gives the fans and the franchise something to remember him by instead of last week’s terrible showing. In seven home games this season, Henry has averaged 83.9 rushing yards per game with seven rushing TDs.

The Seahawks have allowed 14 rushing TDs to RBs, which is second-most in the NFL. You could miss out on a potential two-TD day from Henry if he is reserved. His Anytime TD odds on DraftKings Sportsbook are at -115, which are the best odds of any player in the Tennessee-Seattle matchup.

Kevin Harris

So many of you reading this are asking “who are you talking about, and why are you talking about him?” Scott, do I have to list you as questionable for giving me some wacky fantasy advice?” No, I am good. There are some fantasy players, though, who are desperate for a super-duper sleeper, and Harris is my ultra-gutsy big swing for the fences in such situations.

End-zone view of Kevin Harris’ 18-yard TD run — aided by some poor angles from Chiefs DBs and strong interior blocks from RG Sidy Sow and C David Andrews — shows Harris’ combination of patience and then decisiveness.

Could be playing himself on to the roster from the p-squad. pic.twitter.com/QIHQffOGK7

— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) December 19, 2023

Published reports from those who cover or follow the Patriots closely have indicated that Harris, who has been promoted from the practice squad, could potentially be ticketed for some quality work against Denver after rushing for an 18-yard TD against the Chiefs last week. Ezekiel Elliott has not averaged more than 3.1 yards per carry in his last three games as the lead RB for New England with Rhamondre Stevenson out.

The Broncos have allowed the most rushing yards to RBs this season and the Patriots have the sixth-best run blocking grade on PFF for Week 16. Fantasy leaguers who must dig very deep for an RB hole-plugger or flex option can consider taking the long shot on Harris. He may have no apparent statistical floor, yet there seems to be a path to some possible success.

Wide Receivers – Fantasy Football Week 16

Rashee Rice

The Chiefs' rookie has been surging, with 18-plus PPR points in three of his last four games. He has emerged as the most dependable fantasy pass-catcher on the Chiefs just in time for the fantasy championship drive. Yet, his recent rise to fantasy WR3 prominence has created some challenging lineup decisions for those who roster Rice. Just who do you start Rice over in tight calls when considering him against other more established performers?

Rice has the ninth-best WR/CB matchup advantage grade of any WR against an opposing CB group on PFF for Week 16. I have Rice ranked as a top-15 WR for Week 16, based on such a factor and his recent performances. I would start him confidently for WR2 production, over some more proven types such as Tee Higgins (who I do like a lot for this week, but Rice has a better QB situation, of course) and Davante Adams.

I also prefer Rice over some other quality options such as Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton. Rice is simply a must-start in many situations where you are evaluating him over another WR2, and he should definitely be started over other WR3 types.

Garrett Wilson

100% of top-40 WRs (16/16) to face the Commanders have scored double-digit PPR points.

This is a Garrett Wilson Tweet.

— Seth Woolcock (@Between_SethFF) December 22, 2023

Even with Trevor Siemian at QB, Wilson has a road to at least a respectable outing against the league’s worst pass defense. The Jets’ only reliable pass-catcher has seven-plus receptions in five of his last six home games. Washington has allowed the most receiving yards to WRs, so you can stream Wilson as a WR3 or use him as a viable flex option in Week 16.

Zay Flowers

I am recommending benching Flowers in Week 16 in any close lineup calls involving him. This may be the week when the Ravens get exposed by the 49ers for truly lacking standout playmakers on offense to support Lamar Jackson. San Francisco has dominated other top teams with better weaponry, such as Philadelphia and Dallas. Flowers has a 31.3 WR/CB matchup grade against the 49ers' CBs on PFF for Week 16, which qualifies as “below average.” The rookie has yet to reach 80 receiving yards in a game this season and has not reached the 50-yard mark in three of his last four games.

Wan'Dale Robinson

This is the deeper play at WR for Week 16. The Eagles have allowed the most FPPG to WRs. By this point of the season, their secondary is broken and cannot be repaired. The Giants might put up a fight for a while against a hated rival. Robinson caught six passes for 79 yards against Green Bay in Week 14 and he is capable of providing a similarly respectable double-figure PPR performance this week.

Quarterback And Tight End – Fantasy Football Week 16

So that's both starting safeties (Wallace and Hooker), starting corner (Murphy-Bunting), starting DT (Simmons), and starting middle linebacker (Gibbens) all out. https://t.co/GsUvIafZcf

— Field Gulls (@FieldGulls) December 22, 2023

Geno Smith

Seattle’s starter returns to action in Week 16 in a good matchup against a Tennessee defense that is riddled by injuries. Meanwhile, the Seattle offensive line is mostly healthy and Smith should get ample time to locate his fine trio of WRs for several key strikes and some big plays. The Titans rank 21^st in FPPG allowed to QBs and will be even more vulnerable this week. Smith is a back-end fantasy QB1 play for Week 16.

Trey McBride

Since Week 8, McBride has been the No. 2 overall scoring TE in fantasy football, and he has averaged the most FPPG at the position (16.7) during that span. He is matchup-proof and the Cardinals will be without Marquise Brown this week. The Bears allow the third-most FPPG to TEs. Any question I get this week on starting McBride or another TE goes in his favor. He is my No. 1 ranked TE for Week 16. Yes, you can even start him over Travis Kelce, who is TE9 overall since Week 8 and 10^th in FPPG at 11.9.

Scott Engel's fantasy and betting analysis is also featured at The Game Day.

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