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Another month has flown by, and with it comes another update to my Top 500 overall dynasty rankings. We've seen plenty of movement within the top-50 with a couple of some names falling this season, a major injury to a top-5 arm, and plenty of risers as well.
As I have previously, I'll be posting my new top 50 dynasty rankings below with analysis on a bunch of names that are trending right now. To see the full top 500, you can subscribe to my Patreon.
The rankings can be found below the player notes.
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There's no exact answer to this, but I weigh the following...
- Current/Recent Performance
- Expected future short-term performance
- Expected future long-term performance
- Profile/metrics analysis
- Durability
- Team Context (It matters a little bit)
Dynasty Rankings Notes
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
Already a top-10 caliber player entering the season, Bobby Witt Jr has taken a nice step forward here in year two, already surpassing his rookie season when he went went 20/30. In 525 plate appearances, Witt is already up to 23 home runs and 34 steals with a .276/.317/.495 slash line. And since the start of July, Witt has bee one of the best fantasy players in the game with 11 home runs and 11 steals in 174 plate appearances with a .342/.376/.658 slash line.
Witt is the only player in Major League history to open his Major League career with back to back seasons of more than 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases.
The 5.1% walk rate is still lower than you'd like to see, but Witt Jr. has improved his quality of contact metrics, trimmed the strikeout rate to 18.7%, and has slightly improved his contact and whiff rates as well. Given his power and elite speed, there's no reason to believe Witt Jr can't flirt with 25/40 seasons for the foreseeable future, just as he's doing this season.
Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
Mookie Betts is a gosh darn cheat code. There are other words I wanted to use in place of "gosh darn" but let's keep this family friendly. Betts was already an elite player and now he's added second base and shortstop eligibility on top of his outfield eligibility? Plus, the guy can dunk, bowl a 300, and do whatever he wants on the baseball field.
In his age-30 season, Betts is having arguably the best season of his career outside of 2018. In 528 plate appearances, Mookie is slashing .295/.394/.579 with 31 home runs, 81 RBI, 98 runs, and eight steals. All he needs are another five dingers to surpass his single-season career high for home runs which he set last season. Getting this type of production with dual or tri-positional eligibility, depending on your league eligibility thresholds, is absolute fantasy gold.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Toronto Blue Jays
This has been a very weird season for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I've gone from driving the "Vlad Jr is not a top-10 player" train to now conducting the "Vlad Jr. might be a bit undervalued" train. All the metrics with Guerrero are elite and many are the same or even better than last season. Guerrero is currently running a 12.1% barrel rate, 93.3 mph AVG EV, and 53.7% hard-hit rate along with exceptional contact and approach metrics. He's also trimmed his groundball rate from 52.3% to 46.6% and increased his average launch angle from 4.3° to 9.3°.
So what gives? Honestly, I think lady luck is partially to blame here. Damn her! Guerrero is one of the biggest underperformers this season when you compare his actual AVG and SLG to his xBA and xSLG. While I still don't think he's a top-10 player and 2021 will probably be his best season of his career, Guerrero still passes the sniff test of an annual top-25 player capable of .280+/30+ with plenty of run production along with it.
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
With all the share I have, I can't begin to explain how relieved I am that Corbin Burnes is back to his old dominant ways. Because honestly, the pedestrian version was beginning to get on my nerves. Over his last nine starts, Burnes has recorded a 2.34 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 9.9% walk rate, and 29.6% strikeout rate across 57.2 innings.
Burnes does have nine walks combined in his last three outings, but he's looking more like the pitcher many considered the #1 or #2 guy entering the season. And with McClanahan now out long-term, Burnes is back to being my #2 starting pitcher behind Spencer Strider.
Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays
Speaking of McClanahan, I'm really bummed by the recent news of him being out until 2025 due to needing Tommy John surgery. Am I surprised? Not at all. We all expected this to be the case and it's just another red flag for this Tampa Bay organization who can't seem to keep any of their arms healthy.
But as you can see, I still have McClanahan as a top-10 pitcher and top-50 overall player in my rankings. Assuming he's back on opening day 2025, McClanahan will be a month shy of turning 28 and proved over the last three seasons that he's one of the five best pitchers in the world. If your contention window is more in the 2025-2026 range, I'd definitely be looking to acquire McClanahan for a discount this offseason.
Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles
My #1 prospect, Jackson Holliday, checks in at #30 this month, and honestly, you could make a case for him a little bit higher than this too. As a 19-year-old now in Double-A, Holliday has slashed .336/.452/.530 with 40 extra-base hots, 10 home runs, 21 steals, and nearly as many walks as strikeouts. He's one of the best pure hitters to come through the minors in a while and projects to add more power moving forward as well. We could easily be looking at a 20/20 caliber player that can exceed a .300 average and .400 OBP annually as well.
Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies
Unfortunately, this might be the last time you see Trea Turner inside my top-50 overall. The former top-10 player has seen his production take a Wiley E. Coyote drop off a cliff this season. Turner has always been a speed first guy, and these are hard to trust as they get into their 30s as Turner has.
Turner is still an elite runner, but 22 steals for a guy like Turner in today's landscape where even I currently have 26 steals, can definitely be considered a disappointment. On top of that, Turner has see his contact, zone contact, strikeout, chase, and whiff rates regress from previous levels. I'm sure he can stick around as a top 50-100 player for the next several years, but the days of him being a core dynasty building block are probably in the rear view mirror.
Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers
There aren't a ton of bright spots in Detroit these days but Riley Greene is certainly one of them. In his second Major League season, Greene has improved his quality of contact metrics, trimmed his groundball rate, increased his launch angle, and ranks in the top-10 percent of hitters in xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA. However, given his below average zone contact and whiff rates, I'm not really expecting this .309 average to maintain moving forward. But could Greene settle in as a .270-.280 hitter with around 25 home runs and 10 steals annually? Absolutely.
Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox
Sneaking in at #50 as my #5 first baseman is Boston's Triston Casas. As a Red Sox fan, seeing him really flourish this season has been exciting to watch and he's becoming that middle of the order beast I thought he could become when I saw him live a bunch during his time with Double-A Portland.
Over his last 183 plate appearances, Casas is slashing a robust .323/.404/.627 with 13 home runs and a 12% walk rate. For the season, Casas has an elite 14.7% barrel rate along with a 91.6 mpg AVG EV and 46.9% hard-hit rate. Welcome to the top-50 overall Mr. Casas. Now go chase down that top-4.
Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings
Updated: August 2023 | The full Top 500 along with additional rankings, analysis, and more, check out Eric's Toolshed Fantasy Patreon.
| Rank | Player | Pos. | Team | Age | Prev |
| 1 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | OF | ATL | 25.68 | 1 |
| 2 | Shohei Ohtani | UT,P | LAA | 29.14 | 2 |
| 3 | Corbin Carroll | OF | ARI | 23.00 | 3 |
| 4 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SS,OF | SDP | 24.64 | 4 |
| 5 | Kyle Tucker | OF | HOU | 26.60 | 7 |
| 6 | Julio Rodriguez | OF | SEA | 22.65 | 5 |
| 7 | Juan Soto | OF | SDP | 24.83 | 6 |
| 8 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 3B,SS | KCR | 23.19 | 13 |
| 9 | Yordan Alvarez | OF | HOU | 26.16 | 8 |
| 10 | Elly De La Cruz | 3B,SS | CIN | 21.61 | 11 |
| 11 | Bo Bichette | SS | TOR | 25.47 | 9 |
| 12 | Mookie Betts | 2B,SS,OF | LAD | 30.88 | 15 |
| 13 | Aaron Judge | OF | NYY | 31.33 | 10 |
| 14 | Jose Ramirez | 3B | CLE | 30.93 | 12 |
| 15 | Bryce Harper | OF | PHI | 30.85 | 14 |
| 16 | Luis Robert | OF | CHW | 26.05 | 16 |
| 17 | Rafael Devers | 3B | BOS | 26.83 | 19 |
| 18 | Corey Seager | SS | TEX | 29.33 | 20 |
| 19 | Spencer Strider | SP | ATL | 24.82 | 27 |
| 20 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | TOR | 24.44 | 18 |
| 21 | Austin Riley | 3B | ATL | 26.39 | 30 |
| 22 | Michael Harris II | OF | ATL | 22.46 | 23 |
| 23 | Pete Alonso | 1B | NYM | 28.71 | 24 |
| 24 | Freddie Freeman | 1B | LAD | 33.95 | 29 |
| 25 | Manny Machado | 3B | SDP | 31.13 | 34 |
| 26 | Corbin Burnes | SP | MIL | 28.84 | 31 |
| 27 | Matt Olson | 1B | ATL | 29.41 | 37 |
| 28 | Ozzie Albies | 2B | ATL | 26.62 | 35 |
| 29 | Gunnar Henderson | 3B,SS | BAL | 22.15 | 32 |
| 30 | Jackson Holliday | SS | BAL | 19.72 | 49 |
| 31 | Francisco Lindor | SS | NYM | 29.78 | 40 |
| 32 | Mike Trout | OF | LAA | 32.05 | 28 |
| 33 | Jordan Walker | OF | STL | 21.25 | 25 |
| 34 | Gerrit Cole | SP | NYY | 32.96 | 33 |
| 35 | Trea Turner | SS | PHI | 30.15 | 22 |
| 36 | Eury Perez | SP | MIA | 20.35 | 36 |
| 37 | Nolan Arenado | 3B | STL | 32.36 | 38 |
| 38 | Zac Gallen | SP | ARI | 28.06 | 43 |
| 39 | Riley Greene | OF | DET | 22.90 | 81 |
| 40 | Adley Rutschman | C | BAL | 25.54 | 44 |
| 41 | Randy Arozarena | OF | TBR | 28.48 | 26 |
| 42 | Adolis Garcia | OF | TEX | 30.48 | 45 |
| 43 | Shane McClanahan | SP | TBR | 26.32 | 21 |
| 44 | Oneil Cruz | SS | PIT | 24.88 | 46 |
| 45 | Framber Valdez | SP | HOU | 29.76 | 39 |
| 46 | Christian Yelich | OF | MIL | 31.72 | 78 |
| 47 | Sandy Alcantara | SP | MIA | 27.96 | 52 |
| 48 | Brandon Woodruff | SP | MIL | 30.53 | 59 |
| 49 | Marcus Semien | 2B,SS | TEX | 32.94 | 53 |
| 50 | Triston Casas | 1B | BOS | 23.60 | 129 |
If you enjoyed these rankings and want to see the full Top 500 along with additional rankings, analysis, and more, check out Eric's Toolshed Fantasy Patreon.
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