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Nick Mariano's 2023 fantasy football draft sleepers for PPR leagues - NFL running backs (RB), wide receivers (WR) and tight ends (TE) to target in PPR drafts.
The term "Sleeper" is thrown around more haphazardly than a Mitchell Trubisky out route, but there's no doubting its place in our fantasy lexicon. I do think that everyone that uses it then needs to define what it means within the context of the article. In my mind, we need to head outside of the top-36 RB & WR, as well as the top-10 TE. That's not helpful to me. No one is gaining much of an edge inside of that.
For me, the term sleeper just means a mid-to-late round pick who could be an excellent value where they are currently being drafted. In this article, I will highlight two or three of my favorite sleepers at each of the three traditional positions. Those of you seeking kicker or defense sleepers, feel free to try me on Twitter but really you just need to play Week 1 schedules.
I'd advocate you avoid drafting K or DEF and use the extra bench slots on late-round fliers, anyway. All ADP data used for this article is from FantasyPros aggregate ADP data for PPR drafts and was updated on 09/03/2023.
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2023 Running Back PPR Draft Sleepers
Samaje Perine (DEN), RB38
Perine was brought in by Sean Payton as a strong option as Denver waits to see how Javonte Williams recovers after dealing his ACL and LCL in October 2022. The Broncos let most of the RBs who played for them in ‘22 move on. Guys like Latavius Murray, Melvin Gordon III, Chase Edmonds, Mike Boone, and Marlon Mack are all elsewhere (or still a free agent).
The thin depth chart in Denver is a bit strange given Payton’s desire to pound the rock and his history of deploying RB rotations in New Orleans. And the ‘22 Broncos had a timeshare rocking even when Williams was 100% anyway. Of course, the offense collapsed and was usually forced into catch-up mode that required more passing.
While Perine hasn’t handled a starter’s workload since his rookie year in ‘17, he stepped up with 237 total yards and three TDs in two games he started for an injured Joe Mixon last year. He also caught a career-best 38 passes last year (287 yards, 4 TDs) and owns an 82.7% catch rate over his six-year NFL run. He can earn touches with a hot start as Williams gets up to speed and be a nice value with pass-catching chops in Denver.
If we're looking for "this year's Jamaal Williams," I'd like to nominate Samaje Perine, who I bet reminds Sean Payton of a once underrated Saints RB. pic.twitter.com/CrQj3YaLAy
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) June 28, 2023
Tyjae Spears (TEN), RB60
Father Time comes for us all, and that includes Derrick Henry. Now, the rookie is not here because Henry is “dust” or anything of the sort. But Henry has plenty of mileage and another year increases injury risk and workload concerns. The Titans have built this team around his availability and offer relatively little competition from receivers for the ball.
Spears steps in with notable buzz about his worn-down knee that doesn't have an ACL tendon, with other words like arthritis being thrown around, but I'm not asking you to take him in dynasty leagues. He looked A-OK at Tulane last year, posting over 1,500 rushing yards with 19 ground scores with a 22-256-2 receiving line. Tennessee saw fit to invest in Spears, and now Hassan Haskins was arrested on an aggravated assault charge.
Working Spears into being comfortable at NFL speeds can come in many ways. Spelling Henry on passing downs is a logical one. His size limits the pass-pro potential, but his draft profiles all rave about his willingness to enter the fight. If he gets a few chances per game to show off his explosiveness then he could wind up as a de-facto WR3/4 in Tennessee. And look at this man bully USC:
Tyjae Spears vs USC is as good of a game as any RB I've watched this year. pic.twitter.com/KhyfojGMNQ
— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) February 25, 2023
2023 Wide Receiver PPR Draft Sleepers
They’re too high for inclusion here but the band of WR36-40 in Treylon Burks, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kadarius Toney, Jahan Dotson, and Jordan Addison is very exciting. All could easily pop 10 spots beyond their ADP and I wouldn’t be too shocked.
Rashee Rice (KC), WR68
Rice hype finds itself in a strange bind. On the one hand, he’s on the Chiefs and that automatically puts a player on the map. But the Chiefs haven’t thrown rookie WRs into a heavy rotation either.
Many are looking to fellow second-round pick Skyy Moore now after a very limited rookie campaign with only 22 receptions. And back in 2019 it was Mecole Hardman being taken in the second. He would tally 26 catches (with a wild 538 yards and six touchdowns on them, of course) before earning a larger role.
Perhaps one difference working in Rice’s favor is he played four years of college ball versus the three by Hardman and Moore. Hardman had just 60 catches at Georgia and Moore only popped in his junior year, while Rice had a steady increase leading his senior-year explosion (96-1355-10). Does a more polished Rice make an easier transition? Gain trust earlier? The KC upside is worth a shot.
Jayden Reed (GB), WR75
Reed could easily be Green Bay’s starting slot receiver from Week 1 on if he performs well this preseason. The Michigan State man was taken inside the top 50 in 2023’s NFL Draft and enters a Green Bay WR room that is, well, very green.
Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are both entering their second year. Other rookies such as Dontayvion Wicks and Grant DuBose are high up on the depth chart as well. The Pack also used a second-round pick on Luke Musgrave before a third-rounder brought in Tucker Kraft.
Jordan Love has a chance to grow with the next generation of Packers and could easily find chemistry with a safety-blanket slot man in Reed. Not all slot receivers are automatically Wes Welker or Randall Cobb, and the Pack will surely buy Love space with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, but Reed is in an excellent spot to make good on a low ADP.
Packers lost their Top 3 slot snap pass catchers
Randall Cobb - 209
Allen Lazard - 195
Robert Tonyan - 151Gutekunst & Sullivan repeatedly spoke about Jayden Reed's versatility despite predominantly playing on the outside over the last 2 yrs
"Great complement to Watson/Doubs" pic.twitter.com/bPMwez0fx3
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) May 9, 2023
2023 Tight End PPR Draft Sleepers
Sam LaPorta (DET), TE18
Rookie tight ends can face a steep climb when it comes to immediate NFL production but Detroit has little competition in the room. LaPorta was taken 35th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft as a replacement for now-Viking T.J. Hockenson.
The Lions boast an exciting offense, ranking fifth in the 2022 season with 26.6 points per game. That mark climbed to a league-leading 33.1 at home. This is a great offense to grab a piece of and no one here thinks Brock Wright is a fantasy-relevant threat. And Detroit needs some additional firepower at the season’s start with Jameson Williams suspended for six games.
Outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown, the Lions don’t have standout producers to start. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are solid receiving options out of the backfield but not to D’Andre Swift’s degree. At least as far as median projections are concerned. Get LaPorta as a way into Detroit’s offensive upside at a position where it’s essentially top-8 production or “bust” (aka streaming).
#OnePride Receiving Depth Chart
1. Amon-Ra St. Brown
2. Sam LaPorta 👀
3. Marvin Jones (33 years old)
4. Josh Reynolds
5. Denzel Mims (if he makes team)*Jameson Williams (suspended W1-6)
Josh Reynolds is entering his 7th NFL season and has never finished with more than 52… https://t.co/QItEPJakQx
— Jesse Morse, MD (@DrJesseMorse) July 22, 2023
Cade Otton (TB), TE37
The Bucs inspire little confidence going into 2023, what with an uncertain QB competition and a disappointing ‘22 campaign. But volume and opportunity still count, no matter what the uniform says. While I like Payne Durham in the long-term for Tampa, this should be Otton’s show in 2023.
Otton’s rookie year was helped along by Tom Brady’s NFL-leading (and career-high) 733 pass attempts. The Washington alum would catch 42-of-65 targets for 391 yards and two scores over 16 games, but inconsistency seemingly drew Brady’s ire at times (understandable) and Otton’s weekly floor remained low.
Between Weeks 4-10, Otton was the TE10 in PPR formats as one of six tight ends with over 275 yards in said window. The encouraging piece was their willingness to utilize him in the slot. But Tampa’s Week 11 bye was followed by a goose egg, and Otton wouldn’t top 30 yards again over their final seven games.
There’s no putting lipstick on a pig and saying Tampa will be a Cinderella story. But trailing often should lift the passing volume a touch and could give us a store-brand version of the 2022 Lions. As long as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are out there then no secondary would ever give Otton a spotlight.
(Those understandably unenamored with Otton should be sure to give Tyler Conklin, Hayden Hurst, Irv Smith Jr., Hunter Henry, and Noah Fant a long look in the TE27-31 band.)
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