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Justin determines which MLB players to target as the #1 overall pick in 2023 fantasy baseball drafts. He looks at the top-five in ADP for the 2023 season.
The No. 1 overall pick. One of the most coveted spots in fantasy sports. If you’re one of the few lucky ones to receive a number one pick, you know how stressful it can be, however. Your pick is scrutinized by the rest of your league mates and that makes it more fun, or worrisome. Here we are to break down the top players according to fantasy baseball ADP and help you decide who you should draft first.
This season there is a clear top five players in most leagues, and a case could be made for any of these five players to be taken first overall. These five players are ranked in the top five of RotoBallers fantasy baseball rankings and have an ADP in the top five for RT Sports, NFBC, and Fantrax.
The superstars to be recognized in this article are Trea Turner, Jose Ramirez, Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Julio Rodriguez. That is their RotoBaller rank and may very well be where you rank them yourself, but this article will help you decide who you’d like to grab first overall.
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Fantasy Baseball ADPs for 2023
| RotoBaller Rank |
Player Name |
RT Sports ADP |
NFBC ADP |
Fantrax ADP |
| 1 | Trea Turner | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| 2 | Jose Ramirez | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 3 | Aaron Judge | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 4 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | 4 | 3 | 3.5 |
| 5 | Julio Rodriguez | 5 | 4 | 4.5 |
Trea Turner Fantasy Baseball Outlook
A 20-20 season while hitting .298, driving in 100, and scoring 101 times, it’s easy to see why so many people have Turner going first overall. That was a down year from his 2021 season where he produced a .328/28/77/107/32 line. The added RBI in 2022 was able to jolt him to true five-category superstardom, however.
The 29-year-old had a down year in some other categories as well last season. His strikeout rate rose to 18.5%, the highest since 2019. His ISO dropped to .169, his lowest since 2018. And his wOBA fell to .350, his lowest since 2018 as well.
The newly minted $300 million man is headed back to the NL East, going to a potent Philadelphia Phillies lineup. Playing in a similar lineup with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the last year and a half, you should be able to count close to the same counting stats.
One thing with the former first-round pick, like most superstars, is he doesn’t have any concerning splits. He can hit home or away, in any leverage situation, versus lefties or righties and produced in every month of the season last year.
ATC has a .291/22/80/99/28 projection for Turner in 2023 and that looks like a decent bottom line for the superstar. It’s hard to project higher but he may tack a few notches to each category.
Jose Ramirez Fantasy Baseball Outlook
Ramirez had 35 barrels over 528 events last season, clocking in at 6.6%. He had a .255 expected batting average and a .408 expected slugging percentage. None of those are very good, yet he was again one of the best players in baseball and a possible No. 1 overall pick in fantasy leagues in 2023.
The 30-year-old third baseman produced a line of .280/29/126/90/20, rivaling that of Turner’s numbers. Ramirez had a 12% strikeout rate in 2022, good for 9th best among qualifiers. Of the players with a better percentage, only St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado had a higher ISO than Ramirez’s .235. That combination of power and ability to put the bat to the ball makes for a highly coveted slugger.
The projections for the Dominican are like his output last season. A .268/30/102/94/21 is what ATC calls for and that’s someone who deserves a good hard look at the first overall spot. According to Fangraphs Offensive Runs Above Average, Ramirez was again a top-10 hitter, coming in 8th with a 36.0 number.
Look for the slugger to again be in the heart of the lineup and play every day, as he’s played in 152 games in five of the last seven seasons. 20 homers and 20 stolen bases seem like the bottom line for Ramirez, and he could push for 30 and 25, respectively.
Aaron Judge Fantasy Baseball Outlook
The new AL home run king. One of the best offensive seasons of all time, easily topping player raters across the fantasy baseball landscape. .311/62/131/133/16. If Judge were guaranteed to even come close to that in 2023, he’d be the no doubt number one pick. But last season was special and can’t be considered the norm.
In every major statistical hitting category you look at, Judge is either at the top or near the top. ISO, wOBA, WRC+, and WAR, on top of the counting stats. Judge made everyone else's seasons look punitive in comparison. We don’t have to talk about the rest of the stats because Judge was first in most of them.
Will it happen again is the question? It would be impossible to predict another such season, but not impossible to predict Judge as the best fantasy player in baseball. If he can stay healthy, the man is a machine that not many can keep up with, even those on this list.
With a .284/43/105/104/9 projection, that’s a number one overall pick. And that may be a little on the low end for a healthy age 31 season Judge. With the best power in the game in a potent lineup, along with his propensity for knowing when to steal a base, don’t be afraid to grab him first overall.
Ronald Acuna Jr. Fantasy Baseball Outlook
30-30 and a .280 average is something fantasy owners drool over. Well, how about 40-40? That’s the type of potential Acuna Jr has. He almost reached that plateau in 2019 at the age of 21, hitting 41 homers and stealing 37 bases. Unfortunately, injuries have plagued him since then and he hasn’t topped 24 home runs or 29 stolen bases since.
In 119 games last season, the Venezuelan outfielder had a .266/15/50/71/29 line. His BB% was down to 9.9% last year, his worst since his rookie year. He had a better-than-career average of 23.6% K% but a .148 ISO. That ISO combined with his SLG of .413 shows how much his power was zapped last year.
There’s no denying the talent the 25-year-old has. The only thing holding him back is injuries. That’s something that will usually put off prospective fantasy owners, but with no clear No. 1 overall pick, it may be the year to look beyond that history.
ATC has full-year projections for Acuna, accumulating 622 plate appearances. .270/29/75/101/32 is a superb line and one that may be on the low side for a healthy Acuna in a great lineup. If he overcomes his injury history, watch out.
Julio Rodriguez 2023 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
First off, he started 2022 as a 21-year-old in the majors. He hadn’t spent a day over AA before the season. Through 560 plate appearances in 2022, he hit .284/.345/.509, for a WRC+ of 146, 46% better than the league average. He hit 28 HRs, stole 25 bases, drove in 75, and scored 84 times.
His WRC+ was tied for 8th, but he was 8th among those players in PAs due to missed time with wrist and back injuries during the season. He broke his fingertip at the end of the season but should be fine for spring training.
According to Fangraphs Off stat, Rodriguez was 10th. Again, he had fewer PAs than everyone above him on the list, so a full year should see him creep up a bit. With a 21.4% HR/FB number, Rodriguez was 5th in the league behind big power names Austin Riley, Kyle Schwarber, Yordan Alvarez, and the new AL HR king, Aaron Judge.
Rodriguez’s .284 average would be a boost in today’s game as he finished 24th in the league, and his hit tool was rated as his worst tool as a prospect. He hit .362 in AA in 2021 after hitting .325 in high A that same season. His speed isn’t top-notch, but he could push 30 steals with a little more seasoning on the basepaths in his second year. Combine that with 30+ home run power and he’s in rarified air.
Rodriguez spent most of the season as the leadoff hitter for the Mariners but also got 96 ABs in the 3-hole and a combined 61 ABs hitting second and fourth. Depending on where the M’s deploy him this season, you may see his RBI numbers increase to boost his worth even more. He hit .302 w/ a .362 OBP in the leadoff spot but pumped those numbers to .333 and .396 in the 3-hole.
Those are the five players who most deserve your attention for the first-overall pick. Though it would be a good idea to check out RotoBaller's fantasy baseball rankings to see if you want to test the waters on someone else. Study the ADP tables, look at projections, and read outlooks. You can get it all from RotoBaller and decide for yourself who to grab first.
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