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RB Ronald Jones signed with the Kansas City Chiefs to upgrade their running back corps. What kind of a fantasy football value can we expect from him based on ADP?
It would appear at first glance that Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire's time as the RB1 in town is over. The team signed former Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones II to a one-year contract worth up to $5 million on Saturday, which should mean that Jones will have a notable presence in that backfield. There are now four key pieces in this running back room: Jones, Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams, and Jerick McKinnon, and the two latter options are free agents.
Two years ago, Patrick Mahomes replied with a one-word answer when Andy Reid and GM Brett Veach asked his opinion on who they should take with the 32nd pick of the first round of the NFL Draft: "Clyde." He was picked over Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, and D'Andre Swift, who had profiled to be picked ahead of him in the draft based on better athletic profiles and skillsets. But Edwards-Helaire quickly caught the eye of this coaching staff and front office as well as Mahomes, who revealed that he loved how he had made it through the gauntlet of the College Football Playoff with LSU and won on the biggest stage while still posting incredible numbers against top-tier SEC competition.
Since that rookie season though, which began so nicely with a 125-rushing yard output, Edwards-Helaire has clearly started to fall out of favor in this offense. He has been hurt at times, looked ineffective at other times, and has largely not been producing at a first-round level, while his counterparts that were drafted behind him have started to outpace him. This has all culminated with the decision to bring in Jones, the first real legitimate challenge to Edwards-Helaire's job. Although not the biggest splash among the bevy of NFL Offseason Moves, this signing will have fantasy football ramifications.
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What does Jones bring to the Chiefs?
Jones has been a polarizing player so far in the league. After being drafted in the second round in 2018, he had an awful rookie season, only rushing 23 times for 44 yards. He came back in 2019, accumulating over 1,000 scrimmage yards with a big passing game usage, and then turned it up a notch in 2020 with almost 1,000 rushing yards alone. After battling COVID-19 late in the 2020 season though, he relinquished the starting job to Leonard Fournette and the rest is history from there. Fournette turned in a PPR RB6 season in 2021 and was resigned this offseason to a new three-year deal, which spelled the end of Jones' tenure with the Bucs.
On the Chiefs, we can assume that Jones will be the primary early-down running back. It is worthwhile to note that Kansas City has not rushed on first down much lately; they ranked 26th in the NFL last season with a 27.6% rush rate on first down, per TeamRankings. It's also interesting to see that Jones has performed well on those first and second down opportunities. In the 2020-21 season, he averaged 4.9 yards per carry (YPC) on 132 attempts for 640 yards and six rush TDs on first down, while putting up 5.9 YPC on 53/310/1 on second down, per CBSSports. Edwards-Helaire has not fared as well, posting lower success numbers on these metrics last season.
We can probably assume that Edwards-Helaire's new role will be the primary pass-catcher out of the backfield and will contribute as a change-of-pace back on early downs, which feeds into my projection of what this room should look like.
Jones' Fantasy Outlook
Jones should be able to be a fantasy football contributor from day one in this high-powered Chiefs offense. This offensive line that was completely overhauled by the Chiefs prior to the 2021 season is geared to move downfield and help block for Jones in a gap-run scheme that will utilize his shiftiness, similar to the style of play that Williams showed last season when stepping in for Edwards-Helaire at times. You can see below how Jones' running style should be a plus in this offense.
Even given all of that, we should exercise a bit of caution as far as what we are expecting points-wise from Jones. Yes, Andy Reid has been very, very good to RBs in fantasy over his coaching career. Yes, this is also one of the most potent offenses in the NFL. Both things can be true, while the overarching fact of this narrative is that this offense does not put a ton of responsibility on the shoulders of the early-down RB in this system.
Jones will play a solid role, but it would take at least an injury from Edwards-Helaire for him to be fantasy relevant, if not an additional injury to the third back in the team's RB room. I have him currently as RB29, ahead of Edwards-Helaire (RB33). This could be a very tough fantasy backfield to trust on a weekly basis, so I prefer both of these guys a little later than where they're going off the board.
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