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The free agency period has quieted as we await the 2023 NFL Draft. So let's check in on the quarterbacks who have their playing destinations for the 2023 NFL season.
It is almost time for the 2023 NFL Draft. That means the free-agency frenzy will take a back seat to the draft.
With the biggest quarterback names, Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers, bouncing through Dante's Nine Circle of Hell, our fantasy projections are in flux. Fortunately, the other quarterbacks on the free-agent market found a home.
Will the new digs for these free-agent quarterbacks raise our fantasy hopes or smash them unceremoniously? After free-agent signings, the quarterback risers and fallers will have implications for their real-life teams. But this is about our fantasy dreams.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Is Derek Carr a Fantasy Football Riser or Faller After Signing with the New Orleans Saints?
Carr was the first substantial quarterback domino to get signed. For the Saints, he is a riser. For fantasy purposes, it is a "meh" signing as far as Carr is concerned. Carr has never finished higher than QB10 in fantasy scoring...and that QB10 season was in 2016. His current ADP is in the 12th round, and per CBS.com, he is trending down one spot.
In 2021, he had his most passing attempts (626) and his most passing yards (4,804), with 23 touchdowns, and still only averaged 15.1 fantasy points per game. He finished that season as QB13. Now he is in New Orleans, joining a team with only a 49.3% pass rate for the past three seasons, and last year, their quarterbacks collectively attempted 512 passes. Without the rushing upside, Carr's fantasy value is stagnant.
His weapons are another story. Last season, Carr averaged 9.4 air yards per attempt. Unfortunately, his completion percentage, 60.8%, had his average yards per attempt at 7.0. Still, Carr was fifth in deep-ball attempts, averaging 4.8 per game, and 11th in red-zone attempts, averaging 3.9 per game. He led the league in touchdown passes of 30 yards or more.
Chris Olave will be the riser with Carr under center.
Most yards per route run by a rookie WR over the last 10 years (PFF)
1. 2014 Odell Beckham Jr. (2.75 yards per route run)
2. 2019 A.J. Brown (2.67)
3. 2020 Justin Jefferson (2.66)
4. 2021 Ja’Marr Chase (2.51)
...
5. 2022 Chris Olave (2.42)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 31, 2023
Last season, Olave was ninth in aDOT (14.0), eighth in air yards (1,670), and 10th in yards per route run (2.57).
Is Jimmy Garoppolo a Fantasy Football Riser or Faller After Signing with the Las Vegas Raiders?
We again have another quarterback who was never really going to be your QB1 in fantasy. Garoppolo has never been in the top 10 for fantasy points. Since 2017, he has averaged between 15.3 and 16 fantasy points. The exception was in 2020 when he only played six games and averaged 11.6 fantasy points.
This brings us to another problem with Garoppolo: his ability to stay on the field. He has missed 35 starts since 2016. His injury list includes a shoulder sprain, calf injury, sprained thumb, torn shoulder capsule, and a broken foot. When on the field, he is a good intermediate passer with a 67.7% completion rate in his last three seasons. His peripheral weapons were yards-after-the-catch monsters in San Francisco.
This is good for Davante Adams, who had 30% of his passes in the intermediate range last season and was third in yards after catch (528 or 2.9 yards per target). It also bodes well for Jakobi Meyers, who ran 51.7% of his routes out of the slot last season. While not a YAC monster, PPR players should value his volume.
Ultimately, Garoppolo is a riser because, for now, he is the QB1 in Las Vegas, he is familiar with Josh McDaniels' system, and he has weapons in Adams, Meyers, and Josh Jacobs. But he could fall if he cannot stay on the field for the full season.
Jimmy Garoppolo officially arriving for his Raiders press conference wearing all black everything, custom designed by yours truly 🔥 (via @loganreever) pic.twitter.com/8Xty0MhHTo
— Gentleman's Playbook (@GentsPlaybook) March 17, 2023
Is Baker Mayfield a Fantasy Football Riser or Faller After Signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Since 2019
Baker Mayfield Daniel Jones
84.5 Pass Rating 86.5
13,092 Pass + Rush Yds 13,311
81 Pass + Rush TD 72
61 Turnovers 57
25-31 W-L 21-31-1 pic.twitter.com/JLW4afJs8V— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) March 7, 2023
Mayfield is competing with Kyle Trask for the starting position in Tampa Bay. Trask is heading into his third year and has played in one NFL game. His stats were 3-23-0 on nine attempts. Mayfield, the No. 1 overall pick in 2018, likely wins this battle.
Mayfield has not lived up to his No. 1 overall draft status. In fantasy, he finished as QB21, QB28, QB26, and QB34 for fantasy points per game in his first four years in Cleveland. Last year, he finished as QB41 from his appearances in Carolina and Los Angeles.
He finished strong in his five games with the Los Angeles Rams. He had a 63.5% completion percentage with four touchdowns. Mayfield only threw for 6.6 yards per attempt and had a 3.1% touchdown rate.
For his career, Mayfield has thrown 64 interceptions in five years; his average completion percentage for that period is 60%. Mayfield's stock is slightly on the rise because he is the presumptive starter. But the rise is only as a QB2 at best.
However, Mayfield's arrival could be a welcome sign for running back Rachaad White. After the Buccaneers dismissed Leonard Fournette, White is the de facto RB1 in Tampa. Last season, he was on the receiving end of 58 targets. Mayfield targeted his running back 23.7% of the time last season, which was sixth among quarterbacks who played in five or more games.
Is Jacoby Brissett a Fantasy Football Riser or Faller After Signing with the Washington Commanders?
Last season, Brissett was bought into Cleveland as a stopgap until Deshaun Watson's suspension was served. Brissett did more than just manage the game. Brissett finished his stopgap role with a 64% completion percentage and 7.1 yards per attempt. He was sixth in air yards per attempt (9.0) and eighth in QBR (59.7) but only had 369 passing attempts. Brissett added 243 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns to his 12 passing touchdowns.
This season, Brissett will be competing for the starting position with second-year QB Sam Howell. Both are playing under new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy.
NFC East QB rankings, Excluding Media Narrative:
1. Danny Dimes
2. Jalen Hurts
3. Jacoby Brissett
4. Tyrod Taylor
5. Dak Prescott— NYG_PETE (@nyg_pete) April 4, 2023
Brissett is a slight riser, especially when he wins out the starting position from Howell. We don't know what type of offense Bieniemy will install with Washington. Will he favor Howell's athleticism over Brissett's steadiness? Will he follow head coach Ron Rivera's desire to be a run-first team?
Last season, Terry McLaurin fell flat catching passes from Carson Wentz. McLaurin had a 16.3% target share and 1.52 yards per route run. When Taylor Heinicke replaced Wentz, McLaurin's target share rose to 29.8%, and his yards per route run rose to 2.73.
In Week 18, McLaurin had a 33% target share with Howell under center. Jahan Dotson's season was plagued with a hamstring injury. Curtis Samuel played all 17 games. He finished with four touchdowns and 843 scrimmage yards.
The wild card is Bienemy.
Is Daniel Jones a Fantasy Football Riser or Faller After Re-signing with the New York Giants?
Jones finished as QB9 last season under head coach Brian Daboll. Jones had 15 touchdown passes and only five interceptions in 2022. But what makes him a riser is his 708 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns and the possibility that the Giants will upgrade his receiving options.
If he remains healthy, the addition of tight end Darren Waller will give the Giants a reliable pass-catching option. And the re-signing of Isaiah Hodgins and the signing of Jamison Crowder shows the Giants are moving in the right direction.
Jones doesn't fall. His ability to run keeps him in the top-10 conversations. His QB9 finish last year was a pleasant surprise.
Is Geno Smith a Fantasy Football Riser or Faller After Re-signing with the Seattle Seahawks?
This one is slightly harder to navigate. Smith won NFL Comeback Player of the Year last year, leading the league in completion percentage (69.8%) while finishing as QB5 in fantasy land. Smith threw for 30 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He also ran for 366 yards with one rushing touchdown. QB5 is rarified air. Causing Smith to fall to earth this season.
Top 5 Quarterbacks in the NFC
1. Jalen Hurts
2. Kirk Cousins
3. Dak Prescott
4. Kyler Murray
5. Geno Smith
(Pending Rodgers Trade to Jets) pic.twitter.com/f1gPu5msJo— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) March 23, 2023
Not a bust but not in the top five for fantasy quarterbacks.
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