RADIO
This is part 1 of my dynasty starting pitcher rankings for fantasy baseball. We are deep into dynasty season here at RotoBaller, and we've already analyzed dynasty rankings for Third Base, Catcher, Shortstop, First Base, Second Base and Outfield Part 1 and Part 2.
In standard drafts, ignoring starting pitchers until late is fine. There are plenty of quality arms littered throughout the draft, and then there's the gold mine we call the waiver wire. In a dynasty draft, that should not be the case. It's much harder to find arms who can fill in off the waiver wire because the rosters are so much deeper. Pitching remains incredibly deep in today's game, so there are plenty of good starters available throughout a dynasty draft, but you'll have to pick your spots carefully to make sure you get a nice crop of hurlers .
Editor's Note: Be sure to check out all of RotoBaller's 2015 fantasy baseball rankings articles & rankings analysis to prepare for your drafts. Let's win some leagues!
Tier 1 - Dynasty / Keeper Starting Pitcher Rankings
1) Clayton Kershaw, 26, LAD
2) Felix Hernandez, 28, SEA
3) Chris Sale, 25, CWS
4) David Price, 29, DET
5) Madison Bumgarner, 25, SF
Kershaw is the Mike Trout of pitching. Or is Mike Trout the Kershaw of hitting? Either way Kershaw is easily the top pitcher in the game right now and shouldn't make it past the first five picks of a fresh dynasty draft.
King Felix isn't quite Kershaw. How dare he have a 2.14 ERA and 9.46 K/9 last year compared to Kershaw's 1.77 ERA and 10.85 K/9. Both players have put up these types of numbers throughout their career. Kershaw has just been a little better at it than Hernandez.
Sale detractors are going to say that while his numbers are impressive, he's only reached 200 innings once in his young career. However, Sale has had a great career so far. Last year, he upped his game by pitching to a 2.17 ERA and 10.76 K/9. He is here to stay.
Everyone knows Price has had a great career. In recent years he's even managed to cut down on his walk rate while keeping his strikeout rate consistent. I wouldn't blame anyone for taking him over Sale, they are neck and neck.
Bumgarner, or better knowm as "The Mad Bum" has been on the cusp of greatness for the past few years. Over the last two years he finally achieved it, with his pinnacle coming in the 2015 playoffs and World Series. I don't see any reason he can't continue to put up similar numbers for years to come.
Tier 2 - Dynasty / Keeper Starting Pitcher Rankings
6) Jose Fernandez, 22, MIA
7) Matt Harvey, 25,NYM
8) Yu Darvish, 28, TEX
9) Stephen Strasburg, 26, WAS
10) Max Scherzer, 30, WAS
I know a lot of you are worried about Fernadez coming off Tommy John. The real question is what pitcher isn't coming off Tommy John at this point? He's only 22 and across 224 innings in the majors he's pitched to a 2.97 ERA with a 10.31 K/9. This is a guy who can be your staff ace for the next ten years.
Harvey is also coming off Tommy John surgery. Like his pal Fernandez, he is worth the risk. In 237 innings in the majors, he's pitched to a 2.39 ERA and 9.88 K/9. Sound familiar?
Unlike the two listed before him, Darvish did not have Tommy John recently. However, he did have elbow issues. That wouldn't stop me from drafting him and his career 3.27 ERA and 11.22 K/9. He is a lock for over 200 strikeouts whenever he pitches a full year.
Strasburg sort of feels like the forgotten child because he couldn't live up to the ridiculous standards we set for him. Yet all he has done is pitch, with a 3.00 ERA with a K/9 hovering between 9-11. He's been steadily improving over the years and is coming off a career season. With health, he's capable of being one of the best in the game for a long time.
Strasburg's new teammate is no slouch either. There's a reason the Nationals spent heavily on Scherzer, and it's because he's broken 200 strikeouts the past three years. Moving to the National League should only help him pile up those strikeouts even more.
Tier 3 - Dynasty / Keeper Starting Pitcher Rankings
11) Corey Kluber, 28, CLE
12) Johnny Cueto, 28, CIN
13) Jordan Zimmermann, 28, WAS
14) Jon Lester, 31, CHC
15) Masahiro Tanaka, 26, NYY
I'm sure there will be those of you who say Kluber is only ranked so high because he won the Cy Young. That's not true, I've been a Kluber Trooper for a while now. It started last year when I noticed his great K/9 and an xFIP that suggested he was a much better pitcher than his ERA. He broke out in a big way. With two of the best pitches in baseball, he isn't going anywhere.
Cueto is often injured, but when he is on the field he is among the best. Sure, he's almost always beating his xFIP indicators, but that means it's not a fluke. Last year, he also had a WHIP under 1.00 and batting average against of .192. Sign me up for more of that please!
It says a ton about the truth of the Nationals "super rotation" that three of their pitchers make my top 15 for dynasty pitchers. While Zimmermann is not quite Strasburg or Scherzer, he is great in his own right. Last year included an increase in strikeout rate and decrease in walk rate. I believe those are changes can stick. He could fall down my rankings if he is traded from the Nationals to an American League team.
Lester has had a roller coaster of a career, although it's been mostly on the upswing. His stock did fall a bit in the 2012-2013 seasons when he seemed to lose some of his strikeout stuff. However, he did a ton in 2014 to re-establish his value as a real life and fantasy pitcher. I love the move to the National League for him.
Tanaka would be higher on my list except for one thing. The tear in his elbow. I'm not sure with how many splitters he throws that he can pull off trying to pitch with the tear like Adam Wainwright. Tommy John may be in his future, but this is a guy who seriously impressed in his major league debut last year. Don't be afraid to take the risk.
Tier 4 - Dynasty / Keeper Starting Pitcher Rankings
16) Cole Hamels, 31, PHI
17) Zack Greinke, 31, LAD
18) Gerrit Cole, 24, PIT
19) Garrett Richards, 26, LAA
20) Adam Wainwright, 33, STL
If your league awards points for wins, you're most likely desperately hoping that Hamels gets traded from the Phillies. However, if you're not chasing wins. you might want to look at Hamels. Since 2010 he has pitched to a 3.00 ERA, 8.63 K/9, and 1.12 WHIP stat line. You could also tell the rest of your league you got a pitcher with one of the best changeups in the game.
Since 2010, Greinke has been an every other year 200 inning pitcher. Minus his Cy Young award winning 2009 season, the past two seasons with the Dodgers have been among Greinke's best. There's nothing to suggest he can't have continued success, but he's definitely more of a 1B starter than 1A.
I love Cole. Maybe not as much as some other fantasy analysts, but the love is still there. He has the prospect pedigree. He has four plus pitches. He pitches in the National League. There's a lot to like. Don't be surprised to see him breakout in a big way this coming season.
Garret Richards seemingly came out of nowhere last year. He was a revelation pitching to a 2.61 ERA with an 8.75 K/9 before going down. He should be the Angels' ace going forward, but keep an eye on his knee.
If this were a list for the upcoming year, Wainwright would be much higher. While Wainwright's numbers look great on the surface, he had the third highest rate of line drives against him among qualified starters. Waino probably only has a few more productive seasons once we consider his declining strikeout rate rate, injuries, and age.
Tier 5 - Dynasty / Keeper Starting Pitcher Rankings
21) Julio Teheran, 23, ATL
22) Alex Wood, 24, ATL
23) Alex Cobb, 27, TB
24) Sonny Gray, 25, OAK
25) Yordano Ventura, 23, KC
It's hard to remember that Teheran is only 23. He's fresh off pitching his first 200 inning season. Even though he's been great over the past two years, I have some concerns about his xFIP. His ERA should be much higher, and his strikeout totals are a tad low for my taste. Still, it's hard to ignore a 23-year-old who has pitched to a 3.03 ERA, 7.88 K/9, and 1.12 WHIP over the last two years.
Wood seriously impressed me in his first full major league season. In his first 249 innings, he's pitched to a 2.89 ERA, 8.91 K/9, and 1.24 WHIP. If he can bring the walks down, he will be a devastating pitcher.
Say what you will about the Rays, but they know how to develop pitchers. Cobb is no exception. Since 2013, Cobb has pitched to a 2.82 ERA, 8.22 K/9, and 1.14 WHIP. The only thing holding him back from being ranked higher - he has yet to break 200 innings in his career.
Gray had a great rookie campaign and followed it up with another great season. I would like to see a better K/9 and less walks, but that will come with time. The Athletics are too good at developing young pitching to ignore Gray's potential.
Ventura is very similar to Gray. Electric stuff, but I'd like to see better control from him before I give a full endorsement. Kaufman stadium is a great place to pitch. If the World Series was any indication, this is a kid you want in your rotation going forward.
Tier 6 - Dynasty / Keeper Starting Pitcher Rankings
26) Jeff Samardzija, 29, CWS
27) Jake Arrieta, 28, CHC
28) Michael Wacha, 23, STL
29) Gio Gonzalez, 29, WAS
30) Hyun-Jin Ryu, 27, LAD
Samardzija has gone over 200 strikeouts the past two years. You might be worried if you look at his ERA in 2012 and 2013, but his xFIP suggest he was a better pitcher. Still, there are reasons for concern. The Shark is moving from a pitcher friendly ballpark to hitter friendly U.S. Cellular. The White Sox don't have the best defense. The strikeouts should remain, but an inflation in ERA is coming.
Arrieta is a favorite of mine. He's a different, better pitcher after changing his mechanics. I'm buying into the breakout 100 percent. It doesn't hurt that he pitches in the National League.
Wacha has been brilliant for the Cardinals in his young career. However, that's over a limited sample size, and the shoulder injury does provide a warning sign. Don't be scared off.The Cardinals are great at developing their pitching. Given a few years, Wacha could be Wainwright's heir apparent.
Last year, I remember constantly hearing that Gonzalez was terrible. Sure, he only pitched 158 innings, but he was very effective in them. Gio has some clunkers here and there. Since 2010, he has pitched to a 3.22 ERA, 8.74 K/9, and 1.24 WHIP. He's worth the risk since he's capable of going over 200 strikeouts the next few years.
Let's not kid ourselves. Most of us don't consider Ryu a sexy option. It doesn't help that his season was derailed by injuries including a shoulder injury in September. However, Ryu improved on his strikeout ratio last year while providing a great ERA and WHIP. His strikeout rate may normalize, but he will provide a lot of stability to your rotation.
That's it for now Rotoballers. Look for part two soon.
-Rek
