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Luke's fantasy football league-winning draft picks and breakout candidates for 2025. His top draft values and targets for fantasy football, including Colston Loveland and more.
As we approach the redraft season, mock drafts are unfolding left and right to predetermine who you can get in each round to build your dream team. If you're coming off the 2024 season, where you drafted Bo Nix as a late-round flyer at his QB23 ADP, Bucky Irving at his RB53 ADP, or even Jonnu Smith at his TE21 ADP, you're certainly coming into this season eager to find the late-round value with these sorts of dart throws. Whether you played them through the final stretch of the season to win your league or used them as a key trade package to "color up" at a certain position, they were steals at their double-digit ADP.
How can we repeat this? Where do we continue to develop luck that wins us the league? Mock drafts are essential to understanding where certain players are going in each round. Regardless of what approach you are taking in the draft, selecting the players with the highest upside at the end of drafts and seeing them hit are key contributors to making valuable trades or having extra depth once the season wears on your early-round picks. While hindsight is always 20-20, there are a few key indicators to finding the league-winning upside.
Hitting on a player in the later rounds is one of the best feelings ever, especially when your league mates start making valuable offers for them. Choosing the right player in these late rounds could be a combination of the way your team is built or simply having a clear visual of how "this player" can vault into fantasy stardom. Without overpromising and underdelivering, let's dive into some of the key contributors in this year's fantasy drafts that might end up winning you the league.
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Potential League-Winning Quarterbacks For Fantasy Football
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
With a current ADP of 121, Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence barely slips into credibility for the 10-plus round league-winner contenders.
After adding a surplus of excitement this offseason for Lawrence with QB guru Liam Coen ditching Baker Mayfield and coming to lead Lawrence to greatness, the Jaguars also traded up to select Travis Hunter (second overall), who some believe to be the best WR in the 2025 NFL Draft to pair with 2024 rookie breakout Brian Thomas Jr.
Before Lawrence got hurt, he was also doing more with his legs. He rushed for three rushing touchdowns in the two games before he got injured in Week 13. With Coen making Mayfield a steal at his ADP last year while throwing to a plethora of weapons, Lawrence should be considered a sleeper to make the same leap as long as he can remain healthy.
People are quick to forget Trevor Lawrence had back-to-back 4,000 passing yards seasons in 2022 & 2023!
Are you giving Lawrence another shot in 2025?
— FastDraft Fantasy (@fastdraftapp) June 28, 2025
J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
If you decided to punt QB early in your draft last year and took a shot on the unproven Sam Darnold, you would've been pretty well off. With the Minnesota Vikings' prolific offense (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson), it wouldn't be a surprise to notice McCarthy stepping right into a successful role after having a full year to study the playbook and watch film with Kevin O'Connell.
Not only did McCarthy average a 4.5:1 TD-to-interception ratio throughout his entire career at Michigan, but he also reportedly ran a 4.48 40-yard dash before his final season at Michigan. This should be an easy upside pick in the 11th round to stack with any of these star receivers, even as a QB2 on your roster.
JJ McCarthy looks...ELITE 🎯
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) June 7, 2025
Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
On average, Michael Penix Jr. is being grabbed at pick No. 135 overall in drafts. Penix Jr. had a small sample size last year after being second on the depth chart while Kirk Cousins was seemingly overpaid and fell off after a strong start to the season.
In the final game of the 2024 season, Penix Jr. would make some astonishing plays en route to a QB7 overall finish in half-PPR formats. He also granted a WR1 overall finish to Drake London with 10 catches on 18 targets for 187 yards and two touchdowns. If you manage to get London on your roster for 2025, be sure to grab Penix Jr. for the stack just in case we see this become a trend this season.
Remember, Penix Jr. was a controversial pick at eighth overall in the draft ahead of McCarthy and Nix. We will see if Penix Jr. can sustain that performance and evolve into a franchise QB this year for the Atlanta Falcons.
MICHAEL PENIX JR. WITH A DART TO Kyle Pitts ON 4TH & GOAL TO TIE THE GAME 🤯 😱
WHAT A TIME FOR THE ROOKIE’S FIRST NFL TD 🔥
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/y8FQOUc3Dw— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 30, 2024
Potential League-Winning Wide Receivers For Fantasy Football
Jayden Higgins, Houston Texans
Currently going at 134 overall in drafts, Jayden Higgins has some big shoes to fill in Houston. Stefon Diggs was providing solid WR2 numbers in Houston up until his season-ending knee injury in Week 8. Higgins has been compared to Nico Collins coming out of Iowa State after tallying 1,183 yards and nine touchdowns in his final season.
After being drafted 34th overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, Higgins will have an immediate opportunity to replicate those numbers opposite Collins. People will sleep on him because of the unknown NFL analysis coming in as a rookie. But ultimately, the upside at this pick could certainly make you a contender, especially since rookies typically produce the most later in the season.
Jayden Higgins is looking legit 👀
pic.twitter.com/PwtYwmgTxX— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) June 10, 2025
Marvin Mims Jr., Denver Broncos
At the end of the 2024 season, Mims started to flash the greatness we had all been waiting for. Sean Payton has prohibited Mims from having a high snap count despite proving to be explosive when on the field. In three of the final five regular-season games last season, he put up three WR1 performances, including a hyper-efficient WR4 half-PPR performance with eight catches for 103 yards and two touchdowns in Week 17.
This is a no-brainer upside to chase when he's going in the 11th or 12th round in drafts.
BO NIX FINDS MARVIN MIMS ON 4TH DOWN FOR THE GAME-TYING TD 🤯
WHAT IS HAPPENING??!!!?!
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/lMFfMcYvUw
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 29, 2024
Potential League-Winning Running Backs For Fantasy Football
Isaac Guerendo, San Francisco 49ers
After star running backs Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason went down last year, Isaac Guerendo took over running back duties. While he dealt with a few lingering injuries himself, he put up three RB1 finishes in three of the four games he saw at least a 55% snap count.
The fact that San Francisco was willing to trade away Mason this offseason shows confidence that Guerendo can get it done when asked to do so. If McCaffrey gets hurt this year, expect Guerendo to be a plug-and-play dominant RB1 who you can grab in the 13th round of drafts.
In the 5 games Isaac Guerendo saw 10+ touches, he averaged 16.3 fantasy points.
IG has already showcased the perfect balance of speed, physicality and elusiveness!
Going in the 14th round Guerendo is an absolute steal!
Here are some of his top plays from 2024👇🏽@isaacGuerendo pic.twitter.com/G0wY8dDFt9
— Tim (@FireUpFantasyTG) June 3, 2025
Will Shipley, Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley led the NFL in touches by a dramatic margin with 482 touches. Historically, there have been several backs in recent years who have suffered injuries in the following season due to the wear and tear from leading the NFL in touches. Without wishing ill will upon the notorious Barkley, Will Shipley could be another solid plug-and-play RB1 if Barkley were to miss any time.
Shipley was a dynamic dual-threat running back in college and would likely be a three-down back running behind an offensive line that provided Barkley with 1,328 yards before contact last season. Take Shipley with your 15th or 16th pick as a flyer to win your league if this scenario comes to fruition.
Nothing screams peak offseason content like a Will Shipley post in late May. #FlyEaglesFly
(Via @eaglesmuse_) pic.twitter.com/gtU8WWX5K6
— James McKeith (@freshprincephi) May 26, 2025
Jaylen Wright, Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins traded a future 2025 third-round pick to grab Jaylen Wright in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. While the Dolphins struggled throughout 2024, De'Von Achane continued to see success, and Raheem Mostert would still have 104 touches in his 13 games on the field.
Wright offers a different type of upside due to his standalone value in vacated touches within the Dolphins' offense. If we date back one more year to 2023, we saw Mostert finish as the RB2 overall in half-PPR leagues.
With Wright having the speed the Dolphins love, combined with having put on some more muscle (six pounds) this offseason, he should have a legitimate shot at sharing the backfield with Achane and carving out his role aligned with a path to league-winning upside.
In addition, Wright could see even more opportunities with tight end Smith being traded to Pittsburgh. Grab him in the 13th round as a standalone flex option with a higher upside if Achane misses any time.
#Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel on Jaylen Wright:
“I would expect a hard guy to tackle, that continues to get his assignments right, to get more action… [Wright] can help us and will, and we’ll make the necessary adjustments to make sure that he can contribute his skill set.”… pic.twitter.com/BYZmxHHUXt
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 28, 2024
Potential League-Winning Tight Ends For Fantasy Football
Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears
Enter Johnson, the man who led the Lions to break their playoff drought and developed Sam LaPorta into the TE1 overall in his rookie year. Johnson's first pick as the Chicago Bears head coach was Colston Loveland at 10th overall in the 2025 NFL Draft. Loveland had shoulder surgery in the offseason and still drew this draft capital.
It would be difficult to see him not having a path to becoming this year's Brock Bowers or LaPorta, although he does face a lot of competition for targets. Coming off a 27.9% target rate in his final college season at Michigan while earning every one of those through his crisp route running, Johnson should develop Loveland into a star by the end of the season at the latest.
Feel free to grab him as your first TE in the 11th or 12th round and watch him put up TE1 numbers in the back half of the season.
Colston Loveland is a WR in a TE body. Mismatch nightmare with rare versatility.
Bears got it right. #DaBears #Bears pic.twitter.com/jqmZmjlCpI
— Clay Harbor (@clayharbs82) April 25, 2025
Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars
Exit Evan Engram and enter Brenton Strange as a developing asset out of the prolific Tight End University of Penn State. As Engram faced injuries during eight games of his 2024 season with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Strange put up four TE1 finishes.
Jaguars GM James Gladstone has already hyped up Strange in press conferences, saying he will "have a part in the offense, moving forward, in a way we haven't seen yet." Without promising that he will be a weekly reliable top-five TE just yet, the potential upside is certainly there, especially with Coen turning Cade Otton into an offensive focal point in certain games last year.
#Jaguars GM James Gladstone on Brenton Strange:
“Really excited about his ascension in Year Two, and I think he’ll have a part in the offense moving forward, in a way that we haven’t seen yet.” pic.twitter.com/1I7qHMt0vS
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) February 25, 2025
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