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Starting off on the right foot is great. That’s exactly what happened with this column, as both sell recommendations (Carlos Gomez and Aaron Sanchez) have struggled and Domingo Santana has performed well in the past week. Zack Greinke didn’t fare well in his start, but at least he got a win. Still buying him long-term regardless.

Without further ado, here are this week’s recommendations.

 

Week 4 Buys

Miguel Sano, 3B/OF, Minnesota Twins

Many were skeptical that Sano could avoid being a liability in batting average, given his high whiff rate and .396 BABIP from a year ago. He’s continued striking out at an obscene rate and the BABIP has fallen…all the way to .375. Sano ran high BABIP marks throughout the minors and makes high-quality contact, so it’s not unreasonable to expect that to more or less hold up. What’s been surprising is the relative lack of power. Sano’s gone deep just three times to this point. He still boasts a HR/FB above 20 percent, but is hitting fewer flies overall thanks to an absurd 44.2 LD%. Going forward, expect that to change. Now may be the best chance to take advantage of an owner who’s disappointed in his early performance.

 

Chris Archer, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

It will be tougher to buy low on Archer after his performance on Monday – 10 strikeouts in 6 2/3 shutout innings against the Orioles. But given how ugly his first four turns were, his owners may view that gem as the opening they need to sell you on him. Though he’s been hit hard, it’s essentially impossible for a pitcher to maintain a .433 BABIP or 31.6% HR/FB for long, and Archer is still striking out a ton of batters. As those numbers normalize, Archer should provide the level of production we all expected coming into the year.

 

Week 4 Sells

Jean Segura, 2B/SS, Arizona Diamondbacks

Segura captured the minds and hearts of fantasy owners with his outstanding first half as a rookie in 2013. Since then, he’s been one of the worst hitters in baseball. He’s off to a great start with Arizona, though, hitting .347/.374/.558 with four homers and three steals. Still only 26 and locked into the leadoff spot, plenty of folks seem ready to buy in. Yet nothing has changed in Segura’s batted ball profile that would support a BABIP 60 points above his career mark or a HR/FB% more than double what he’s done previously. And while he’s swinging (and missing) less often than usual, he remains allergic to walks.

 

Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Detroit Tigers

Zimmermann has won his first four starts and boasts sparkling ratios (0.35 ERA, 1.12 WHIP). But those numbers don’t reflect his actual performance. Zimmermann’s 8.6 K-BB% ranks 78th out of 102 qualified starters, and would be the worst of his career by a wide margin. He’s never been a strikeout pitcher, but a 5.5 K/9 is barely rosterable in the current environment. And as you might expect from that microscopic ERA, Zim has been quite lucky so far. He’s stranding 90 percent of runners and hasn’t allowed a home run in his 26 innings. The projection systems all have him running close to a 4.00 ERA with a sub-7.00 K/9 for the rest of the season.

 

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