RADIO
Last week is now in the books and the fantasy football regular season is now over for the majority of leagues. We move headlong into the fantasy playoffs. No more byes and plenty of QB injuries that have reshaped the DST landscape. Those fortunate enough to earn a first-round bye in their league may not have a game that matters until Week 16. For others, maybe the playoffs are not in the cards this season, but you are still playing to win at all costs. Along with the typical rankings and tiers, this article will include strategy and advice for those scenarios. It's "one and done" time for most playoff teams, so let's get after it!
The Dolphins are proving to be as good as advertised (advertised by me, in this article series throughout the season) with another defensive TD in Week 14. And the good times continue with Miami with the sought-after matchup with the Jets, putting them at the top of my DST rankings again this week. The Chiefs have been disappointing but have faced a rough stretch of opponents. Their schedule now opens up just in time for the Fantasy Playoffs. The Chiefs have the second-most favorable playoff schedule behind only the Rams. With the QB issues in Jacksonville, where it will either be CJ Beathard or a less-than-100% Trevor Lawrence, the Ravens are back on the map as a good play in Week 15. I am finally giving the Colts' DST the credit they deserve. After not quite buying in over the last month I have them ranked as the sixth overall DST this week. Along with the Dolphins, the Colts are the hottest DST in fantasy football right now.
A few sleeper DSTs that I do not have ranked very high this week are the Bengals (against the Vikings) and the Bears (against the Browns). There are a good amount of streaming options this week in the first three tiers, so hopefully this article can help you make the best decision for your team to up your chances of moving on to the semi-finals in your fantasy playoffs.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!
How To Determine What Defenses To Start
When it comes to determining the top fantasy football defenses each week, you should look at which units have the most upside and can change the trajectory of your matchup. Defenses are often overlooked in fantasy, but the top DST scorers from each week can outscore some of your opponent's key starters. If you started the Dolphins in Week 12 you increased your chances of winning your matchup significantly.
We also need to pay attention to matchup strength. In determining DST matchup strength, I use an adjusted fantasy points-allowed system. I include the raw fantasy points allowed per game to the DST position. I then factor in how that PPG allowed compares to the opponent's average DST PPG. For instance, let’s say Team A allows 10 fantasy points to the Cowboys’ DST. Team B allows five fantasy points to the Panthers’ DST. If looking only at raw fantasy points allowed, Team B is ranked as a tougher matchup having given up half as many points. But if the Cowboys’ DST is averaging 16 PPG while the Panthers’ DST is averaging only one PPG, that needs to be factored into the overall matchup strength. Team A’s Points Over Average (POA) allowed is -7. Team B’s POA allowed is +4. I assign weight to POA which is factored into the overall rank.
Along with season-long POA allowed, my formula for adjusted fantasy points allowed also factors in POA allowed over each team’s last five and last three games. I made some minor qualitative adjustments to the ranks to account for current situations not reflected in past results. For instance, in my formula, the Bengals still present as a tough matchup for DSTs, but the majority of the data informing that result also includes Joe Burrow as the Bengals’ starter. Now that the Bengals are relying on a backup, I am manually moving them down until we have a larger sample size with Jake Browning at QB. Each opponent will include their current rank, with lower numbers representing tougher matchups and higher numbers representing easier matchups.
Matchup strength is important, but it typically shouldn’t outweigh the strength of the DST in making a decision. To maximize the upside of your fantasy defense each week, you need to target units that can get to the quarterback constantly and cause turnovers. Sacks, turnovers, and defensive touchdowns are what create high ceilings for these fantasy defenses. To determine a somewhat safe start at defense, you should look at low point totals and teams projected to hold their opponents below 20 points.
Tier 1 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 15
Miami Dolphins DST vs. NYJ
Yahoo Rostership%: 93%
Vegas Odds: MIA favored by 12
Over/Under (Total Points): 40.5
Implied points against: 14.3
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 30th
The Dolphins get the Jets in Week 15, and while they somehow found some offense with Zach Wilson back under center in Week 14, they remain a Top 3 favorable matchup for DSTs. The Dolphins are coming off of a relatively disappointing game against the Titans in Week 14, in which they allowed 28 points and inexplicably lost at home to the Titans. However, Miami scored a defensive TD for the third week in a row, a streak that started against the Jets in Week 12. This helped them secure their fourth straight game with double-digit fantasy points. The Dolphins notched seven sacks and two interceptions along with the defensive TD the last time these teams faced off. Start the Dolphins’ defense with confidence in the opening round of your playoffs.
San Francisco 49ers DST @ARI
Yahoo Rostership%: 98%
Vegas Odds: SF favored by 13.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 47.5
Implied points against: 17
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 21st
The Cardinals seem like a better matchup than they’ve been (ranked 21st), but Kyler Murray has not been good since making his 2023 season debut and Marquise Brown has been a non-factor. Second-year TE Trey McBride has been the only consistent offensive bright spot as of late, and the 49ers have been a brutal TE matchup. The 49ers’ DST was not returning on their high draft pick investment before their Week 9 bye. It’s been a different story since. Over the last five games, the 49ers have averaged 4.4 sacks, 1.2 interceptions, 13 points allowed, and 11 fantasy points per game. San Francisco is firing on all cylinders on both sides of the ball and they are a top play in Week 15.
The ability of the 49ers defense to contain the run without consistently being +1 in the box has been a huge part of their success since the bye
— JonnydelsFA (@jonnydels) December 11, 2023
Kansas City Chiefs DST @NE
Yahoo Rostership%: 100%
Vegas Odds: KC favored by 9.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 37
Implied points against: 13.8
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 28th
Like the Dolphins, the Chiefs were a defense I was calling out earlier in the season and pleading with you to stash (when their rostership was lower) because of their late-season schedule. Unlike the Dolphins, Kansas City has been disappointing in that stretch so far. They have not scored double-digit fantasy points since before their Week 10 bye, and have allowed 20.6 points per game in the four games since. Now, another difference between the Chiefs and Dolphins is that of the two, Miami’s “good schedule” has been more favorable. The Chiefs faced the Eagles, Packers, and Bills over their last four games, all Top 10 tough DST matchups. And even though they only managed two fantasy points against the Raiders in that stretch, the appeal of the Chiefs’ schedule was always the Fantasy Playoffs. Kansas City has the second-easiest playoff schedule, starting this week against the Patriots (followed by games against the Raiders and Bengals).
The Patriots’ implied total of 13.8 points is one of the lowest of the season and in line with the minuscule 10.2 points per game the Patriots have averaged over the last five games. This is the week the Chiefs will reward managers who acquired them and held them through the recent rough patch.
Tier 2 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 15
Cleveland Browns DST vs. CHI
Yahoo Rostership%: 80%
Vegas Odds: CLE favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 37.5
Implied points against: 17.3
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 19th
The Bears surprised everyone coming out of their Week 13 bye with a dominant 28-13 win against the Lions. The Bears’ season-long POA allowed to DSTs is +3.4 PPG but they held the Lions’ DST to 3.4 fantasy points under their PPG average. However, Chicago’s POA allowed is positive (+1.6 PPG) over the last five games, and the -3.4 POA allowed against Detroit was their first negative POA allowed since Week 7. And with the Browns’ season-long PPG of 8.6, that sets them up for a solid floor in Week 14.
The Browns’ DST hit a rough patch in Weeks 11-13, with only four total sacks, zero interceptions, and two fantasy PPG. That did include two tough road matchups with the Broncos (eighth) and Rams (fourth). They returned to form against the Jaguars in Week 14 with four sacks, three interceptions, and 12 fantasy points.
The Browns defense picked off Trevor Lawrence 3x and forced a total of 4 turnovers
The last time Lawrence threw 3 ints was week 16 in 2021
Not only did they cause a top AFC QB to have a bad day, they did it without their CB1 Denzel Ward#DawgPound
pic.twitter.com/RSqChnYHoO— Mac🦬 (@tha_buffalo) December 11, 2023
New Orleans Saints DST vs. NYG
Yahoo Rostership%: 69%
Vegas Odds: NO favored by 6
Over/Under (Total Points): 36.5
Implied points against: 15.3
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 31st
Somehow, the Giants’ offense has been improved with Tommy Devito at QB, but they are still a great matchup for DSTs. While they held the Packers’ DST below their season-long average, their POA allowed is +4.9 PPG, making the Saints another great floor play (Saints’ DST average PPG is 8.4). The Saints took advantage of the best DST matchup (Panthers) in Week 14 with four sacks, a defensive TD, and only six points allowed. Start them with confidence at home against the Giants.
Saints block the punt and take it back for the TD!
pic.twitter.com/BfVrCJH7Lc— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) December 10, 2023
Indianapolis Colts DST vs. PIT
Yahoo Rostership%: 42%
Vegas Odds: IND favored by 2.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 42
Implied points against: 19.8
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 23rd
I have been ranking the Colts’ DST too low over the last month. I’m fixing that this week by putting them at sixth overall in my rankings. The Steelers’ offense has slowed to a crawl lately regardless of who has been under center. Pittsburgh has averaged 14.8 points per game on the season and only 12 points over the last three games. And while that has not turned into many big DST fantasy days for their opponents, the Colts have been an opportunistic defense. Their points allowed is not how they accumulate fantasy points, with 27.3 PPG allowed over the last three games. But over the last five games the Colts have averaged 4.2 sacks, 1.4 interceptions, and 15.2 fantasy PPG. They’ve had at least five sacks and/or a defensive TD in three of the last five games. The Colts are one of the hottest DSTs in fantasy and you can count on them again at home against the Steelers in Week 15.
Los Angeles Rams DST vs. WAS
Yahoo Rostership%: 17%
Vegas Odds: LAR favored by 6.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 48.5
Implied points against: 21
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 29th
The Rams get the 29th-ranked (fourth-most favorable) Commanders in Week 15 and also have the most favorable playoff schedule. At only 17% rostered, the Rams are a solid streaming option. The Commanders have a POA allowed of +4.6 PPG on the season, which bumps up to +7.8 PPG when looking at the last three games. The Rams have been a mediocre fantasy DST this season, but a home game against Washington sets up for a potential spike week for this unit. Over the last three games, the Commanders have allowed 11 sacks, turned the ball over eight times, and given up a defensive TD in each game.
Minnesota Vikings DST @CIN
Yahoo Rostership%: 15%
Vegas Odds: CIN favored by 3.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 39.5
Implied points against: 21.5
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 20th
The Vikings are fresh off of pitching a shutout against the Raiders in Week 14, along with four sacks and three turnovers. The Bengals are a tough team to rank as a DST opponent because of how good Jake Browning has been since taking over for Joe Burrow. Typically, a sudden change to a backup QB forces me to qualitatively adjust that team’s rank because the data creating my rankings mostly includes games with the starter being healthy. But Browning has not been the QB downgrade everyone assumed he would be. But I still consider the Bengals a positive DST matchup, and the Vikings have thrived in positive matchups, averaging 13.4 PPG in their five games against teams currently ranked 17th to 32nd versus DSTs.
the minnesota vikings defense
2022:
•EPA/play allowed: 17th
•success rate allowed: 26th2023:
•EPA/play allowed: 4th
•success rate allowed: 7thbrian flores is putting together a masterpiece
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) December 11, 2023
Tier 3 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 15
Baltimore Ravens DST @JAX
Yahoo Rostership%: 91%
Vegas Odds: BAL favored by 3.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 43
Implied points against: 19.8
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 16th
Ranking the Jaguars is also tricky at the current moment with the cloudy injury situation surrounding Trevor Lawrence. Surprisingly, Lawrence was able to start in Week 14 against the Browns less than a week after suffering a high ankle sprain. And perhaps he should not have, as he struggled in their loss to the Browns. Lawrence is currently questionable for Week 15 and my ranking of the Ravens would go up if he ends up sitting. But even if he plays he likely won’t be 100%, making this a positive matchup for the Ravens.
The Ravens’ DST has averaged 9.8 fantasy PPG on the season and 10.6 PPG over the last five games. The knock on this defense for a while now has been their playoff schedule, and after this week they play the 49ers and Dolphins. But that forecasting earlier this season occurred when the Jaguars were a much tougher DST opponent. The Ravens are a solid play for one more week.
📈Week 13 NFL Team Trends📉
EPA per drive team tiers:
The Ravens' defense has taken over as the best by EPA per drive allowed pic.twitter.com/1kfPGexvEM
— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) December 6, 2023
Las Vegas Raiders DST vs. LAC
Yahoo Rostership%: 7%
Vegas Odds: LV favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 33.5
Implied points against: 15.3
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 18th
The Raiders being in Tier 3 and in the Top 12 is purely a matter of situation and matchup. If Justin Herbert was healthy the Raiders would likely be in Tier 5. But Las Vegas will be facing their division rival with Easton Stick starting at QB. This abrupt change has the Chargers as the underdog with an implied total of 15.3 points. The Raiders have been a decent DST this season in positive matchups and have averaged a solid 9.2 fantasy PPG over the last five games.
Atlanta Falcons DST @CAR
Yahoo Rostership%: 32%
Vegas Odds: ATL favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 34.5
Implied points against: 15.8
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 32nd
After two games in double-digits against the Saints and Jets, the Falcons’ DST put up a goose egg against the Buccaneers in Week 14. But, Atlanta is in a “get-right” matchup in Week 15 against the 32nd-ranked Panthers. Carolina has descended to the level where you are starting the majority of DSTs against them, and that includes the Falcons. The Panthers’ season-long POA allowed is +3.5 PPG, but they’ve allowed a POA of 5.6 PPG over the last five games and +5.9 PPG over the last three games.
Los Angeles Chargers DST @LV
Yahoo Rostership%: 31%
Vegas Odds: LV favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 40.5
Implied points against: 18.3
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 27th
The Chargers sneak into Tier 3 with a matchup against the 27th-ranked Raiders, a team that has not scored a single point since a third-quarter field goal in Week 12. They did have a bye in Week 13, but the point stands that this is a struggling offense. The Chargers have had a tough DST schedule this season, with only six games considered positive matchups. In those six games, they have averaged 12.3 fantasy PPG, including 14 points the last time they played the Raiders.
Tier 4 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 15
The Tier 4 defenses are mostly available and there are a few decent streaming options if you’re stuck. Unlike Tier 5, multiple DSTs in Tier 4 are decent plays. However, all the defenses in the previous tiers should be prioritized over these teams. My favorite Tier 4 DSTs are the Texans, Bengals, and Bears.
Tier 5 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 15
These are the defenses that I would not be playing in Week 15 unless you absolutely have to. These units are either going up against a top offense in the league, aren’t a good defense in general, or both. They offer low ceilings and significantly low floors that can hurt your chances of winning your fantasy matchup. Avoid all these choices entirely and try to get a defense in the top two to three tiers for Week 15.
Rest-of-Season Look-Ahead: Fantasy Playoffs
The following charts show each fantasy defense’s remaining schedule with each opponent color-coded based on rank in adjusted fantasy points allowed to DSTs. Red and orange indicate tougher matchups while green represents easier matchups. Each opponent’s strength of schedule rank can be found on the right-hand side of each chart. The chart on the left shows the entire rest-of-season schedule and where that schedule ranks in difficulty. The chart on the right shows only the Fantasy Playoff schedule and where each DST’s playoff schedule ranks in difficulty. This is where you can strategize based on where you fall in the playoff seeding.
This visual depiction assists with developing what I like to call a DST Streaming Action Plan. Unless otherwise noted, this will feature DST options that are below a 50% rostership during the current week.
We can now look at an action plan through the Fantasy Playoffs. Looking at Weeks 15-17, here are potential pieces and weekly options for a DST Streaming Action Plan. If you have already secured a first-round bye, look only at the options in Weeks 16 and 17. For instance, the Broncos are almost a Tier 3 DST in Week 13, but a road matchup against the Texans pushes them into Tier 4. However, they have one of the better Week 16 matchups against the hapless Patriots, so if you have that elusive bye, consider stashing them now.
- Week 15: Colts (vs. PIT), Rams (vs. WAS), Falcons (@CAR).
- Week 16: Broncos (vs. NE), Jets (vs. WAS), Packers (@CAR), Colts (@ATL), and Texans (vs. CLE).
- Week 17: Jets (@CLE), Jaguars (vs. CAR), Colts (vs. LV), Texans (vs. TEN), Rams (@NYG), Falcons (@CHI).
Full D/ST Rankings for Week 15
In addition to going through each of the five DST tiers for Week 15, here is the full list of ranks for the 32 teams playing this week. The chart includes each team’s tier, Week 15 rank, Yahoo rostership, opponent, opponent rank versus the DST position, the over/under, spread, and implied points against.
Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on X (@MunderDifflinFF).
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
Win More With RotoBaller
Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:More Fantasy Football Analysis
Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.
