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Our Sleeper.com NFL DFS prop picks - over/under props for the early slate of games in Week 13. Ellis' favorite prop bets on Sleeper.com.
We started this week on fire, finishing 4-0 for our Thursday picks. Last week we had a good showing finishing 10-7 in total (6-6 Thursday and 4-1 Sunday) and moving our total to 53-45. This might be my last week this season writing a Sunday prop article so I have something special lined up for this one!
This week I will be selecting a prop for each early slate game prop and an additional bonus selection, totaling eight selections. It’s a good week to do it as we have some marquee matchups such as Broncos vs. Texans, Colts vs. Titans, and of course, 49ers vs. Eagles.
My name is Ellis Johnson and I have been writing for RotoBaller for four years. You can catch my weekly Fantasy Pie Shop articles on RotoBaller (trust me, it’s as fun as it sounds). RotoBaller is coming out with weekly DFS plays and lots of great analysis with their DFS pass. Be sure to check it out as the team has been crushing it so far this year!
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C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU)
Under 269.5 Passing Yards, Texans @ Broncos
Picking an under for C.J. Stroud is terrifying. Not only did it not work out the last time I tried this, but I also didn’t want to cheer against the guy. Stroud has been fabulous and made this Texans offense one of the most exciting offenses in the league.
Despite all of that, I really like this under. Since Week Seven, the Broncos have allowed the seventh-fewest passing yards per game (201 yards/g). On the season, Stroud has only played four teams who were in the top 10 for the fewest passing yards allowed (Ravens, Falcons, Saints, Panthers). In all four of those games, Stroud failed to reach 250 passing yards.
I like this line as I think it is taking advantage of the public perception of Stroud and the skewed season-long statistics of this Denver defense.
Sam Howell (QB, WAS)
Over 264.5 Passing Yards, Dolphins @ Commanders
So, Sam Howell is still leading the league in passing yards. That’s wild. Howell has been cooking all season and it doesn’t look like it’ll stop anytime soon. The Commanders' defense is constantly giving up points and Head Coach Ron Rivera loves to be aggressive.
This week Howell should be in a great game-script as the Commanders take on the high-powered Dolphins. Although the return of both Xavien Howard and Jaylen Ramsey has tightened things up, Miami is in the bottom half of the league against the pass this season.
Even if the Dolphins' defense plays well, Howell will have plenty of passing attempts to surpass this line. Howell has passed this mark in seven of his 12 games and has done it in each of his last six games.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
Over 72.5 Receiving Yards, Colts @ Titans
For some reason, it does not feel like it, but Pittman is currently seventh in both targets and receptions at the WR position. The whole season, Pittman has been making plays and being a safety net for whoever is under center.
On the season, Pittman has passed 72 yards in six of his 11 games and now faces a Titans team that allows the 9th most yards to the position (176 yards/g). Considering Pittman has eight or more targets in five of his last six games, and 10 or more targets in four of those, he will have every opportunity to cash in on this matchup.
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Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)
Over 62.5 Rushing Yards, Chargers @ Patriots
The only functional parts of this Patriots offense have been Stevenson and Demario Douglas. Over the last few weeks, it’s been clear that the coaches feel the same as both players have continued to see an increase in their involvement.
Stevenson is coming off three straight games with 80-plus rushing yards, and two straight games of 20 or more rushing attempts. If he gets that workload again (which he should) he will torch this Chargers defense. Over the last three weeks, the Chargers have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards to the position on the 14th-most attempts. This is the perfect matchup for Stevenson to have another big day.
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)
Over 47.5 Receiving Yards, Cardinals @ Steelers
Johnson is coming off one of the weirdest performances of the season. From dropping a clear touchdown to loitering beside a live fumble, something was going on. Despite all of this, he finished with eight targets and 50 yards.
This week he plays a Cardinals team that has been brutal on defense all season. Last week, Matthew Stafford passed for four touchdowns and Kyren Williams rushed for over 150 yards. Since Johnson has eight targets in each of his last two games, and this new offense wants to throw over the middle of the field, he should easily find his way to 50 this week.
Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ)
Under 51.5 Receiving Yards, Falcons @ Jets
This is a sad one. Wilson is an incredible talent, stuck on a floundering team with Tim Boyle under center. Not only does Boyle have arguably the worst college statistics of any NFL quarterback, but he also has a 4-11 touchdown to interception ratio in his 19 career NFL games.
Last week we saw Boyle aggressively target Wilson, and save his fantasy day with a garbage-time touchdown. However, that was against the Dolphins and not the Falcons who currently allow the sixth-fewest yards and fifth-fewest receptions to the WR position over the last three weeks.
This Falcons secondary is coming off a huge game where they tortured Derek Carr and the Saints. Unless Wilson gets 15 targets (which he might), I am happy to bet against Boyle throwing catchable passes against a very solid defense.
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)
Over 40.5 Receiving Yards, Lions @ Saints
Laporta has had an incredible rookie season. He is fifth at the position in yards and tied for second in touchdowns. This week he faces a Saints team allowing 4.5 receptions and 45 yards per game to the position. Although that is above average, they allow the most touchdowns per game to the position.
The Saints thrive at stopping the run, and that’s where the Lions like to keep the ball. I can’t see the Saints stuffing this run game, but if they slow it down Laporta will see plenty of looks. He has 40 or more yards in eight of his 11 games played this season. I think Laporta is in line for a big game this week.
Bryce Young (QB, CAR)
Over 198.5 Passing Yards, Panthers @ Buccaneers
I am going from fading C.J. Stroud to backing one of the most disappointing first-overall rookie seasons. Bryce Young is an awesome person and a very talented QB, whether it’s a mix of that organization being a disaster, his team lacking top-end talent, or his inability to adapt to the NFL level, something bad is happening in Carolina.
This will be their first game after firing their head coach Frank Reich which could be a great thing for this offense. Plus, teams are notoriously successful the first week after firing their head coach (look at the Raiders this year). If the new head coach narrative comes to fruition, Young will have 200 passing yards.
The Buccaneers is a pass-first team with a great run defense and Swiss cheese for a secondary. Tampa Bay allows the third most passing yards per game and the 10th fewest rushing yards to RBs. This run game has struggled against all opponents this year, paving the way for Young to find success through the air.
Thanks for reading. Check out my prop picks for the second Thursday game this week!
Disclaimer: Please gamble responsibly. I am writing this as a thought-provoking guide that can hopefully help individuals make their own decisions.
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