RADIO
Week 11 saw a bit of a rebound in picking the right defenses. With the weather and injury updates on Sunday, we were able to nail six of the top-10 defensive units with the Bucs still to come. Miami laid a bit of an egg against a banged-up Denver team, and the Chargers weren't able to capitalize on the Jets the way that other teams had; however, the week itself was a success.
As we move into the final weeks of the fantasy season, it's important to keep an eye on how a team's real-life play may impact their decisions. For example, the Dolphins, who are still in playoff contention benched Tua Tagiovaola in the second half in the hopes that Ryan Fitzpatrick could lead them to a come from behind victory. While the team downplayed the move, if Tua struggles to move the ball consistently next week, could the Dolphins make the move again? That would potentially give them an offense that scores more points, but one that also turns the ball over more and makes them more attractive to stream against.
Similarly, there are rumblings that Philadelphia may see what Jalen Hurd can give them under center, and you may see a team like the Lions shut down veteran Matthew Stafford once the team has been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs if his thumb injury continues to impact his play. As with all aspects of fantasy football, people on top of the news and trying to think one or two steps ahead is always beneficial in attacking fantasy defenses. I would argue that, at this point in the season, having a second defense on your bench with an eye towards next week's matchup can often be more valuable than a 5th WR or RB who would never play for you unless you suffer mass injuries.
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Picking The Right Defenses
When choosing a defense, you want to be looking for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards per play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below - but they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. NFL offenses have scored 7,963 points or 24.9 points per game so far this season and allowed 359.3 yards per team per game, which is the most through the first 11 weeks of any season in the Super Bowl era in either stat.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
We can also identify the offenses that we want to attack based on current performance. Injuries can always change this, but, for right now, defenses going up against the Jets, Broncos, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Bengals, and Washington Football team have scored considerably more points on average than defenses facing other offenses. Now, attacking these teams doesn't always work, and you don't want to elevate a bad defense too far just because they get one of those teams; however, it is a key factor to keep in mind when making your decision.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Week 12 Defenses To Start & Stream: Tiers & Rankings
These rankings are from before the Monday Night Football game and will be adjusted throughout the week to take into account weather and injuries.
Below are my Week 12 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 12 of the NFL and fantasy football season. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver wire pickups to improve your lineups, and to decide which defenses to start, sit, target, avoid or stream for Week 12. I've broken out our defense rankings into tiers with analysis on each matchup. Some of these Week 12 defenses have good matchups and are not widely-owned, representing fantasy scoring opportunities if they are available on your league's waiver wire for a Week 12 pickup or add.
Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating, which Bill Dubiel started last year, is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of a straight point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. I take a lot of factors into account: opponent injuries, home-field advantage, weather (which will be updated during the week), etc. We still have only one game of in-season data to work with, so this week's rankings weigh schedule and personnel heavier than they will down the line.
Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues and Tier 5 being desperation plays or good defenses in horrendous matchups.
Tier 1 Defenses
| Rank | Tier | DST | Week 12 Opponent | Confidence Rating |
| 1 | 1 | New Orleans Saints Defense | @ DEN | 14.1 |
| 2 | 1 | Miami Dolphins Defense | @ NYJ | 13.1 |
| 3 | 1 | Cleveland Browns Defense | @ JAX | 12.7 |
| 4 | 1 | New York Giants Defense | @ CIN | 11.7 |
We attacked Denver last week with the Dolphins, and it didn't work out, but we're going right back to the well here. The Broncos are 18th in sacks allowed, 31st in offensive drives ending in a turnover, and 28th in offensive drives ending in a score. Simply put, they turn the ball over a lot and don't puy many points on the board, which is why they allow the second-most points to opposing DST. That's problematic against a Saints defense that has been the 2nd best unit in fantasy football over the last four weeks, notching 53 points or 13.3 points per game over that span.
The Dolphins underperformed on Sunday against the Broncos, but they'll get another chance to put up big fantasy points against a relatively inept Jets offense. Despite the let down this weekend, the Dolphins are the 3rd ranked fantasy defense over the last four weeks. They are 5th in defensive drives ending in an offensive turnover and 15th in sacks over the course of the 2020 season. Meanwhile, the Jets are dead last in offensive drives that end in points and 23rd in sacks allowed, so they will give the Dolphins opportunities to rack up fantasy points while also making it unlikely that the Jets put up a massive point total.
Cleveland took advantage of another poor weather game and got after the Philadelphia Eagles in the rain. They won't find the sledding much tougher against the Jaguars this Sunday. The Jags are 23rd in offensive drives ending in a turnover, 25th in offensive drives ending in a score, and 27th in sacks allowed. That's a terrible recipe against a Browns defense that is 3rd in defensive drives ending in an offensive turnover and 8th in sacks. The Browns biggest weakness is in the deep passing game, but I'm not convinced that Jake Luton is the man to take advantage of that or that the Jaguars offensive line can provide enough time for the receivers to get open downfield.
The Giants may be an underwhelming team overall, but they've been solid on defense, ranking as the 12th best unit over the last four weeks and averaging 6.5 points per game over that time. While those aren't impressive numbers, they give me confidence against a Bengals offense that just lost Joe Burrow for the season and put Joe Mixon on IR. The Bengals were 20th in the league in offensive drives that ended in a score and 16th in drives that ended in a turnover, but I'd expect those numbers to get worse with Ryan Finley under center. The Bengals are also 31st in sacks allowed, which is problematic against a Giants team that is 4th in pressure rate, 10th in sacks, and best in the league in quarterback knockdown rate. I expect the Giants to harass Findlay throughout the game, leading to a handful of sacks and a couple of turnovers.
Tier 2 Defenses
| Rank | Tier | DST | Week 12 Opponent | Confidence Rating |
| 5 | 2 | Washington Football Team Defense | @ DAL | 11.4 |
| 6 | 2 | Los Angeles Rams Defense | vs. SF | 10.8 |
| 7 | 2 | Pittsburgh Steelers Defense | vs. BAL | 10.1 |
| 8 | 2 | Buffalo Bills Defense | vs LAC | 9.8 |
Washington is tied for 3rd in the league in sacks and will take on a Cowboys offensive line that is 26th in sacks allowed. Even though the Cowboys got Andy Dalton back and surprisingly beat the Vikings on Sunday, they are dead last in offensive drives that end in turnovers, which means that Washington's pressure could lead to a few turnover opportunities. Moving Zach Martin to right tackle has helped strengthen the Cowboys' offensive line a little, but they still give up the third-most points to fantasy defenses, which makes Washington a high floor option with the potential to push a high ceiling with their pressure rate.
The Rams defensive line showed up to play on Monday night. Despite allowing 24 points, they were in Tom Brady's face most of the game. Coming into the game, they'd averaged 11 points per game over their last three games and will now face a 49ers team that has underperformed all year. Yes, San Francisco will likely have Deebo Samuel and Raheem Mostert back, but the offensive line is 20th in sacks allowed, and the team is 25th in offensive drives ending in a turnover. The Rams will have Jalen Ramsey able to shadow Deebo Samuel and a defensive line that is 6th in pressure rate able to attack the 49ers offensive line and provide plenty of chances to put up fantasy points.
We all know the Steelers are a dominant defensive unit, so their ranking here has nothing to do with their talent but more with the fact that the Ravens are a solid offense. However, they do have their weaknesses. First of all, the Ravens, despite Lamar Jackson's scrambling ability, are 19th in sacks allowed. They are also 19th in offensive drives that end in a turnover and only 16th in offensive drives that end in a score. Basically, they are a league-average offense. Yes, they will probably bring the fight to the Steelers in a rivalry game, especially with their playoff hopes taking a hit with the most recent loss, but this is a matchup the Steelers can do damage in. They are tops in the league in pressure rate and sacks, and 4th in defensive drives that end in an offensive turnover. All of that has led to the Steelers being the best fantasy defense all season with 11 fantasy points per game.
The Bills defense was much maligned at the beginning of the year, but they're the 6th ranked fantasy defense since Week 7, scoring nine points per game. That has come despite matchups against solid offenses in Arizona and Seattle. The Chargers can certainly put points on the board, but they are actually only 23rd in offensive drives that end in a score and 16th in sacks allowed. With the Chargers Defense also faltering of late, the offense could be forced to play catch-up against Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. That would be bad news against an opportunistic Bills defense that is 2nd in the league in defensive drives ending in an offensive turnover and 9th in sacks. I expect the Chargers to put up points in this game but not enough to outweigh the points the Bills defense will get from sacks and turnovers.
Tier 3 Defenses
| Rank | Tier | DST | Week 12 Opponent | Confidence Rating |
| 9 | 3 | Green Bay Packers Defense | vs. CHI | 8.7 |
| 10 | 3 | Indianapolis Colts Defense | vs. TEN | 8.4 |
| 11 | 3 | Baltimore Ravens Defense | @ PIT | 8.3 |
| 12 | 3 | Arizona Cardinals Defense | @ NE | 8.2 |
| 13 | 3 | Philadelphia Eagles Defense | vs. SEA | 7.4 |
| 14 | 3 | Houston Texans Defense | @ DET | 6.8 |
| 15 | 3 | Seattle Seahawks Defense | vs. PHI | 6.7 |
For me, there is a big drop off this week between the Tier 2 defenses and Tier 3 defenses this week. For now, we keep the Packers here. The Packers' defense had a golden opportunity to put up a solid fantasy line against a Colts offense that was allowing solid finishing to fantasy defenses based on their inability to hit big plays. However, this Packers defense is simply not a great unit. They are ranked 19th over the last four weeks with four fantasy points per game. They are 29th in defensive drives ending in a turnover and 17th in sacks. However, they are 10th in defensive drives ending in points allowed, which gives them a chance at a high-floor game against a Bears offense that is 30th in offensive drives with points allowed. The Bears are also 21st in sacks allowed and 20th in offensive drives ending in a turnover, so the Packers have a chance to take their high floor game and provide some ceiling plays which will land them in the top-10.
Fantasy defenses facing the Packers had scored the fewest points in the league up until Sunday when the Indianapolis Colts put an end to that. Unfortunately, it doesn't get much easier as the Titans allow the third-fewest points to fantasy defenses so far this season. They are best in the league in offensive drives that end in a turnover, 11th in offensive drives that end in a score, and 9th in sacks allowed. They simply don't give opposing defenses many chances to accumulate fantasy points. The Colts are 8th in defensive drives that end in a turnover, 5th in defensive drives that end in points, and 15th in pressure rate, so they are a solid unit, but I can't see many pathways to a ceiling game that gets them inside the top-10.
The Steelers versus Ravens game is likely to be a defensive struggle, as usual. The Ravens are best in the league in defensive drives that end in score, 5th in pressure rate, tied for 8th in sacks, and 3rd in blitz rate, so they are not going to roll over and let the Steelers march down the field. It's far more likely that the Ravens, playing to maintain a shot at the division, keep this low-scoring and come after Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has been known to take chances when under pressure, so I think the Ravens can keep this close and make a few plays. However, this Steelers offense is 2nd in sacks allowed and 4th in offensive drives that end in a turnover, so they aren't going to shoot themselves in the foot or allow the Ravens to put up a high ceiling fantasy day.
The Cardinals' defense failed to deliver against the Seahawks offensive line on Thursday. This week, they'll get a bit of an easier challenge against the Patriots. Yes, the Patriots are 12th in the league in sacks allowed, but that is more to do with their ball-control style of offense. They love to run the ball, limiting the number of plays, but also limiting the number of points as evidence by them ranking 22nd in offensive drives ending in a score. To make matters worse, the Patriots are 30th in offensive drives ending in a turnover, and face a Cardinals defense that is 10th in pressure rate and second in the league in blitz rate. The Cardinals are going to come after Cam Newton early and often, which may lead to a slower-paced game with more running plays, fewer sustained drives, and fewer points on the board. All of it gives the Cardinals a high floor and a chance to push into the back-end top-10.
The Eagles will face a stiff test against the Seahawks on Monday night, but this is a defense that is 5th in fantasy scoring over the last four weeks. They are also 5th in pressure rate and 2nd in sacks and will take on a Seahawks offense that can put points on the board but is also 24th in offensive drives that end in a turnover and 30th in sacks allowed. This might be a high-scoring game, but I expect the Eagles to be able to get enough sacks and turnovers to keep them as a viable deep-league option.
Houston failed to deliver against the Patriots on Sunday, but they get another chance to right the ship on Thanksgiving. Despite Carolina having one of the worst fantasy defenses, they finished as a top-three option thanks to a depleted Lions offense. With D'Andre Swift and Danny Amendola getting in no practice on Monday and Matthew Stafford battling an injury to his throwing hand, the Lions are looking like another tasty matchup on Thanksgiving. On the plus side for Detroit, Kenny Golladay did get in a limited practice on Monday, so there is a chance that he could play. If he does, it would knock Houston down a little bit. INJURY UPDATE: Swift did get in a limited practice on Tuesday, which would imply that he's likely to play on Thursday. However, Golladay was downgraded and seems less likely to suit up.
It's amazing how much better the Seahawks defense looked with Carlos Dunlap. By getting pressure on the quarterback, the Seahawks took the pressure off of their secondary and prevented the type of offensive explosion we expected from the Cardinals. That's also welcome news considering the Eagles allow the most sacks of any team in football and fantasy defenses against the Eagles average the 6th most points in the league. That keeps the Seahawks on the deep-league radar.
Tier 4 Defenses
| Rank | Tier | DST | Week 12 Opponent | Confidence Rating |
| 16 | 4 | San Francisco 49ers Defense | @ LAR | 6.3 |
| 17 | 4 | Chicago Bears Defense | vs. GB | 6.1 |
| 18 | 4 | Tennessee Titans Defense | @ IND | 5.7 |
| 19 | 4 | Denver Broncos Defense | vs. NO | 5.1 |
| 20 | 4 | Dallas Cowboys Defense | vs. WAS | 4.8 |
| 21 | 4 | Los Angeles Chargers Defense | @ BUF | 4.5 |
| 22 | 4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense | vs. KC | 3.2 |
Tier 5 Defenses
| Rank | Tier | DST | Week 12 Opponent | Confidence Rating |
| 23 | 5 | Kansas City Chiefs Defense | @ TB | 3.0 |
| 24 | 5 | Atlanta Falcons Defense | vs. LV | 2.9 |
| 25 | 5 | New England Patriots Defense | vs. ARI | 2.7 |
| 26 | 5 | Minnesota Vikings Defense | vs. CAR | 2.4 |
| 27 | 5 | Las Vegas Raiders Defense | @ ATL | 2.1 |
| 28 | 5 | Cincinnati Bengals Defense | vs. NYG | 1.6 |
| 29 | 5 | Carolina Panthers Defense | @ MIN | 1.5 |
| 30 | 5 | Jacksonville Jaguars Defense | vs. CLE | 1.3 |
| 31 | 5 | New York Jets Defense | vs. MIA | 0.9 |
| 32 | 5 | Detroit Lions Defense | vs. HOU | 0.6 |
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