November 19, 2016

Nathan Powell analyzes fantasy football lineup sleepers and avoids for Week 11 of the 2016 NFL season. These are boom or bust plays for DFS and seasonal leagues.

Welcome back, RotoBallers. In this article, I will cover five of my favorite boom or bust plays for Week 11 of the fantasy football season.

The Boom or Bust play is one of the most talked about aspects of fantasy football each week. Boom or Bust players can be used as lineup options in deeper leagues, when it appears you are a heavy underdog in your head-to-head matchup or even in Guaranteed Prize Pool Tournaments in DFS. Let's get rolling.

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Quarterback

Blake Bortles, Jaguars QB at DET

Blake Bortles is often referred to in the fantasy community as a “garbage time warrior”, accumulating many of his points in the 2nd half when his 2-7 Jaguars team is down multiple scores. Relying on large deficits to accumulate points makes him a risky boom/bust play each week. Despite many in the media calling for his starting job due to poor play, Bortles remains the starter and this week he has a matchup that he may not even garbage time to have a big fantasy week.

In week 11, Bortles and the Jaguars face a Lions defense that has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks so far this season. Lions/Jaguars is the 3rd highest projected matchup of the week with an over/under of 47, and with the Lions as 6.5 favorites, Bortles should get some garbage time opportunity even if he doesn't need it in the plus matchup. The re-emergence of Allen Robinson has been big for Bortles as Robinson has at least 7 catches and 70 receiving yards in each of the last 3 games.

Verdict: Boom

Running Back

C.J. Prosise, Seahawks RB vs PHI

C.J. Prosise has been one of the most talked about players in fantasy football in recent weeks. Prosise proved he was worth the hype as a versatile running back with 153 total yards, including 7 catches for 87 receiving yards, finishing week 10 at RB7 overall against the Patriots. In week 11, Thomas Rawls is expected to play for the first time since week 2 after a hairline fracture injury.

From a broad scope, I have always been high on Prosise and low on Rawls, but I think that Prosise’ floor is low in this matchup against an Eagles defense that has allowed the 8th fewest fantasy points to running backs. The Seahawks are 6.5 point favorites and could rely on Rawls to run out the clock leaving Prosise as the receiving back on the sideline. Prosise is being ranked as a top 15 back by many rankers, but that doesn't factor in the possibility that Rawls gets the bulk of the carries.

Verdict: Bust

Wide Receiver

Marvin Jones, Lions WR vs JAC

Marvin Jones started the season as one of the hottest receivers in fantasy football and looking like of the best free agent pick ups in the NFL this offseason for the Lions. Jones scored 70.8 PPR points in the first 3 games, but since, he hasn't eclipsed 14 PPR points and has scored only 7.8 points in his last 2 games. The fade of Jones has directly correlated with the emergence of Golden Tate taking back the role of the most targeted wide receiver on the team.

Coming off of a bye in a plus matchup, I think this is the week we see early season Marvin Jones come back. 4th overall pick Jalen Ramsey has been one of the few bright spots on the Jaguars team, I think he shadows Tate for much of the game as he is Stafford’s top target, leaving the rest of the poor Jaguars secondary which has allowed the 9th most fantasy points to wide receivers so far this season.

Verdict: Boom

Tight End

Zach Miller, Bears TE at NYG

Calling the Bears receiving corps depleted would be one of the bigger understatements of the offseason. With Kevin White out for the season and Alshon Jeffery suspended for 4 games, Zach Miller is the only legitimate option on the offense for Jay Cutler. Cameron Meredith has shown flashes, but he has only seen 6th targets combined in the last 3 games combined. While that number is bound to increase with Jeffery, I do think that Miller is the biggest benefactor of the Jeffery suspension.

In week 11, Miller and the Bears have a neutral matchup against the Giants and Vegas projects Bears scoring to be few and far between with a team total of 18, but in PPR leagues, Millers target volume should be enough to make him a top 10 TE play with a top 3 ceiling on the week if he is able to get into the end zone. He is a much less attractive plan in non-PPR formats as that becomes more touchdown dependent.

Verdict: Boom

Hail Mary of the Week

In the Hail Mary of the Week, I will choose a Boom/Bust candidate who is available on the waiver wire or at the end of benches in most fantasy football leagues and could have a big week:

Derrick Henry, Titans RB at IND

The Titans game plan against Andrew Luck and the Colts will be the same as it has been all season, run the ball as much as possible to keep the opposing offense off the field and to tire the defense for the 4th quarter stretch. Demarco Murray has rode that plan to being a top 5 fantasy running back and Derrick Henry has only surpassed 7 PPR points once.

So, why is Henry worth the Hail Mary throw this week? Titans/Colts is projected to be the highest scoring game of the week at 53 and I think Henry is a sneaky way to get exposure to this game, as the season goes on, I think that Henry will become more involved to keep Murray’s legs fresh for a possible playoff that the Titans have an opportunity at thanks to the division they play in. Henry does have a low floor like any desperation play, but if he breaks a long run, it could pay off big.