November 8, 2016

Nick Mariano analyzes Week 10 sleepers available on your 2016 fantasy football waiver wire. These NFL running backs (RBs), wide receivers (WRs), tight ends (TEs), quarterbacks (QBs) and defenses (DEFs) are fantasy football sleepers.

Welcome to the post-Week 9 installment of the Waiver Wire weekly series for the 2016 fantasy football season.

Week 9 didn’t see any big names go down, and so there really aren’t any big-name adds. Week 10 yields a four-team bye, with Buffalo, Detroit, Indianapolis and Oakland hitting their hammocks for a breather. Let’s check in on players that are owned in roughly 40% of leagues or less, so that you can make an educated decision about who to add to your squad.

Be sure to also check out our weekly rankings and analysis columns, with in-depth analysis for all options heading into Week 10.

Editor's Note: Once you're done here, be sure to read about even more Week 10 waiver wire recommendations, for all fantasy-relevant positions. Just click on any link: ALL - RB - WR - TE - QB - DEF - FAAB - CUTS

Week 10 Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups

Rob Kelley (RB, WAS) – 27% Owned

Remember, Kelley just totaled 87 rushing yards on 21 carries in Week 8 before Washington hit their bye. The obvious issue entering Week 10 is Matt Jones’ health and where he fits in when he’s healthy. Head coach Jay Gruden said that Jones could “come back in here and get some of those reps back [from Kelley].” Whoever does start gets a lousy draw against the Vikings, so this isn’t exactly a gold mine. *UPDATE: Mike Jones of the Washington Post tweeted out that Gruden thinks Kelley will get the bulk of the carries and that Jones will have to earn his way back. Add Kelley.

Tim Hightower (RB, NO) – 43% Owned

After Hightower tallied 26 carries and 102 yards against Seattle last week, he turned 23 carries into 87 yards and a TD. He also chipped in a 15-yard catch. While Mark Ingram easily had a better day (15-158-1 rushing, 2-13-1 receiving), Hightower touched the ball more and still held his own for New Orleans. It’s rare for a defense to be so bad that it yields two RB1 finishes to multiple RBs, but the 49ers are absolutely those guys. New Orleans' next three matchups come again Denver, Carolina and LA, and even though Denver just got gashed by Oakland on SNF, this is not an ideal situation for speculators. Still, some opportunity beckons here and Hightower becomes the clear-cut lead back again if Ingram puts the ball on the ground again.

Dion Lewis (RB, NE) – 41% Owned

Lewis returned to practice on Oct. 27 after being removed from the PUP list, and the hope remains that he’ll put on the pads and play in New England’s Week 10 matchup against Seattle. He’s a better pickup in PPR leagues, but the Patriots generate lots of offense and there are plenty of games that profile as “Lewis” games compared to “LeGarrette Blount” games, just like last season. James White’s stock takes the hit here.

Alfred Morris (RB, DAL) – 35% Owned

Morris rushed the ball 17 times for 56 yards in Dallas’ Week 9 rout of Cleveland, as they really didn’t need to risk rising star Ezekiel Elliott with the game in hand. This is not about Morris’ potentially being useful as the B-side of a committee though, as we’re still dealing with that domestic abuse case floating around. It doesn’t feel like there’s much traction here, but there’s no point in an Elliott owner leaving themselves exposed with no handcuff anyway.

James Starks (RB, GB) – 25% Owned

Starks is supposedly targeting Week 10 for a return, which would give him a matchup against the Titans as a “welcome back”. Tennessee has been much better against the run than the pass this season (9^th in run DVOA, 24^th in pass), but we’re stashing Starks here for his long-term value as Green Bay’s only true running back. The Packers haven’t looked right for a while, and HC Mike McCarthy is likely aching for an RB he can trust to hold down the traditional role (even one as mediocre as Starks).

Kenneth Dixon (RB, BAL) – 23% Owned

There can’t be anyone that feels good about stashing Dixon at this point, but at least he touched the ball 11 times in Week 9 after only racking up nine total touches over his first three games in the NFL. He only collected 13 total yards though, and somehow made Terrance West’s 15 carries for 21 yards look okay. The Ravens just haven’t moved the ball that consistently in 2016, and this further dulls Dixon’s prospects even if West were to go down.

C.J. Prosise (RB, SEA) – 22% Owned

With Seattle set to play on Monday night, we don’t have much more to add to last week’s blurb. In a nutshell, Prosise rushed four times for 23 yards and caught all four of his targets for 80 yards, including a 43-yard reception on a nifty trick play. That came against the Saints defense of course, and Monday night’s battle with the Bills should be a better gauge of things moving forward. The looming return of Thomas Rawls will also throw the snap counts through a loop, but Prosise should have a pass-catching role for the rest of the season here.

Paul Perkins (RB, NYG) – 17% Owned

The breaking news of Week 9 is that the Giants still suck at running the ball, but at least Perkins racked up 32 yards on 11 carries and added in two 15-yard catches to give him 62 total yards. No one would’ve been happy playing him in Week 9, but the point here is that New York gave him a chance to play and be somehow outshone Rashad Jennings (11-26-0, 3-13-0). The Giants will remain at home for their next two games (CIN, CHI) before heading into Cleveland. Those in PPR formats should be more eager at this pickup, but there’s some upside to chase for all. If only his pass-blocking skills could be trusted.

Peyton Barber (RB, TB) – 15% Owned

Tampa Bay is really pushing the limits of “next man up” here. While Doug Martin does have a chance to return for the Bucs’ Week 10 home date with the Bears, he’s light years from a sure thing and is unlikely to return to a full workload right off the bat. With Antone Smith joining the ranks of injured Tampa Bay RBs, Barber is an intriguing short-term add.

DuJuan Harris (RB, SF) – 10% Owned

Harris stepped up in San Francisco’s shootout with the Saints, a game that saw 64 total points go up on the board with DuJuan garnering 23.2 PPR points. As we said with Kaepernick, expectations will need to be tempered for these next few matchups, especially after expectations may be anchored by this soft matchup. Carlos Hyde has had injuries linger before, so he’s worth a speculative grab for those truly desperate in standard and in PPR formats based on volume.

Ronnie Hillman (RB, MIN) – 10% Owned

Matt Asiata failed to get any sort of stranglehold on Minnesota’s backfield with Adrian Peterson and Jerick McKinnon out, and even though McKinnon is back now, it’s a dark-horse candidate that ran the best in Week 9. Hillman, the Denver castoff, totaled 30 rushing yards on seven totes and added a 32-yard reception into the mix. McKinnon’s seven carries turned into a measly eight yards, and Asiata gave us a plodding 9-27-0 line (with 2-14-0 receiving). Stranger things have happened, and Minnesota’s Week 10 opponent -- Washington -- had the worst rushing defense per DVOA.

Kapri Bibbs (RB, DEN) – 5% Owned

I’m sure eyebrows were raised by his 69-yard TD on a screen pass, but this is still just a handcuff type who only saw three touches on Sunday night. Denver isn’t sporting a great offense, and while Bibbs may have earned a few more touches with his scamper, he still can’t be started with Devontae Booker active. Tuck this away, but those blessed with deep benches might as well snag some upside with the slots.

Terron Ward (RB, ATL) – 3% Owned

Tevin Coleman is still hurt, so Ward is still the cuff. While Devonta Freeman obviously dominates the touches on this potent Atlanta offense, Ward would enjoy some fantasy relevance should he miss any time. The Falcons will tussle with the Eagles in Philly before hitting their bye on Week 11, so do note that this is a real longshot. Coleman should be okay by Week 12 even by most conservative marks.

Kenneth Farrow (RB, SD) – 2% Owned

Here’s a guy I’d much rather scoop compared to Ward, as Farrow is the only man left standing behind Melvin Gordon now that Dexter McCluster is done for the season. Gordon limped off the field for one play in the fourth quarter against the Titans, which illustrates the potential value of Farrow – especially to Gordon owners. Of course, Gordon came right back in the next play and absolutely steamrolled multiple defenders en route to a 47-yard run.

Mike James (RB, TB) – 1% Owned

Plain and simple, if Doug Martin and Jacquizz Rodgers are both still out for Tampa Bay in Week 10 then James is the only warm body at RB for the Bucs behind Peyton Barber. It’s unlikely that they’ll utilize the green Barber as a workhorse, so James should get sprinkled in and contribute a little for those who are truly in dire straits.

Week 10 Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups

J.J. Nelson (WR, ARI) – 16% Owned

In case anyone forgot during Arizona’s bye week, Nelson caught 8-of-12 targets for 79 yards and two TDs against the Panthers in Week with a team-high 65 snaps. Head coach Bruce Arians said Nelson has earned a spot as the Cardinals’ #2 receiver in front of John Brown and Michael Floyd, which is a nice place to be. He gets to face an ugly San Francisco defense in Week 10 before doing battle with Minnesota’s stud corners in Week 11. Still, a starting WR for Arizona’s offense deserves a look or three.

Rishard Matthews (WR, TEN) – 46% Owned

Matthews turned in his highest target total (10) of the season in Tennessee’s Week 9 loss to the Chargers, which he turned into a lovely six catches for 63 yards and two TDs. He has now scored five touchdowns over his last five games, and has a stellar trio of matchups on deck (GB, @IND, @CHI) before the Titans’ Week 13 bye. He’s their #1 receiver, and should be owned as such.

Steve Smith Sr. (WR, BAL) – 38% Owned

Smith returned to action in what was one of Baltimore’s rougher offensive showings, but still mustered four catches on seven targets for 47 yards and a two-point conversion. He looked sharp with his route running and didn’t appear limited by the injury, though Flacco’s general ineptitude was limiting enough. He’ll be a high-end flex option against the Browns defense in Week 10 though, with more to offer for PPR owners.

Brandon LaFell (WR, CIN) – 36% Owned

While LaFell was an absolute nonfactor (two targets, one catch for six yards) in Cincinnati’s ugly Week 8 27-27 tie, he had still scored four touchdowns with 21 targets in the previous three games. He’ll square off with a Giants secondary in Week 10 that has really showed itself this season, and perhaps he shouldn’t be a big consideration with Tyler Eifert back in the fold. Add at your own risk, but he likely has a few good games left in him. It just won’t be fun waiting around for them.

Kendall Wright (WR, TEN) – 25% Owned

In the four weeks since Wright has fully been involved (after recovering from an early-season injury), he has totaled 16 catches on 23 targets for 293 yards and two TDs. While the bulk of that (8-133-1) came in that Week 6 thumping of the Browns, he’s still been a pretty efficient WR in an offense that has really put up some points lately. Matchups against Green Bay, Indianapolis and Chicago’s defense in the coming weeks should provide ample opportunities to keep it up.

Tyreek Hill (WR, KC) – 22% Owned

Hill, and honestly all of Kansas City’s offense, really didn’t do much of anything against Jacksonville in Week 9. He did see five targets, but only caught three of them for 11 measly yards. Hopefully no one ever sold him as consistent, but the long-bomb ceiling is still there and should be very much in play against Carolina next week and Tampa Bay in the following week. No one in either of those secondaries can match Hill’s speed.

Marqise Lee (WR, JAC) – 14% Owned

Lee tied his season-high mark in targets with eight, catching four of them for 84 yards. Most of the damage came on a 51-yard strike, and his little spike back up after Week 8’s disappointment was likely tied to Allen Hurns’ leaving the game with a concussion. If Hurns is out for Week 10, it means Lee may be Bortles’ safely valve against a stingy Houston pass defense. You’re not chasing a high ceiling, but the volume of a slot receiver can yield solid PPR value.

Adam Thielen (WR, MIN) – 14% Owned

Thielen’s numbers won’t astound, but he has seen at least five targets in each of his last four games and put up at least seven points in PPR formats in each as well. He caught four-of-six targets for 68 yards in Week 9 against a lousy Detroit defense, as new OC Pat Shurmur’s dink-and-dunk approach would play well for Thielen in PPR settings. He shouldn’t draw much of Josh Norman in Week 10 when Minnesota faces Washington, and should make for a decent bye-week fill-in as Minnesota fleshes out its new offensive identity.

Cordarelle Patterson (WR, MIN) – 13% Owned

While Week 8’s three targets saw his little streak of six-plus targets snap, he bounced back with a season-high eight in Minnesota’s Week 9 loss to Detroit. He has notably only surpassed 50 yards once this season, but just as we noted with Adam Thielen, Patterson may benefit from a more voluminous passing attack. We can’t count on quite this much love to go around, but those in deep leagues may love a guy who sees roughly six targets a week. If you count return yards, then even better.

Percy Harvin (WR, BUF) – 12% Owned

No one knows what to expect here, as the Bills shook Harvin out of retirement to come provide some life to their depleted WR corps. Without Sammy Watkins, they’ve been relying on Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, Greg Salas and Walt Powell. Woods and Goodwin have been banged up, and Buffalo needs a little electricity here. Last season he caught 19 balls for 218 yards and one TD, a 51-yard bomb, across five games before retiring. If you are as desperate as the Bills then go for it, but don’t expect much, especially against a Seattle defense on Monday night.

Adam Humphries (WR, TB) – 11% Owned

Don’t overreact to Humphries' 5-46-1 line from Week 9, as most of it came late when the game was well in hand for Atlanta. It also came after Mike Evans was forced from the game with a possible concussion. This provides his only real avenue to sustainable production again, as he’d be the most experienced receiver on the field should Evans be ruled out for Tampa Bay’s Week 10 matchup against the Bears. *UPDATE: Evans is practicing on Monday, and while concussions can worsen with time it looks like he'll be good to go as of now. Downgrade Humphries.

Eli Rogers (WR, PIT) – 9% Owned

Rogers was Ben Roethlisberger’s clear-cut #2 wide receiver in their brutal Week 9 matchup against the Ravens behind Antonio Brown. LeVeon Bell is basically the #2 WR, but Rogers got a lot more work with Markus Wheaton in the doghouse and Darrius Heyward-Bey hurt. Things should shift when Ladarius Green gets up to speed, but for now Rogers could be a decent PPR flex play in Week 10 against Dallas.

Russell Shepard (WR, TB) – 5% Owned

Shepard is dealing with a hip issue, but if he is cleared to return for Week 10 then he could be in line to pick up where he left off as far as scoring touchdowns goes. He found pay dirt in Weeks 7 and 8 before missing Week 9 with the injury, and was the clear fill-in for the injured Vincent Jackson as Tampa Bay’s #2 WR opposite Mike Evans. Obviously if Evans is held out with his concussive symptoms and Shepard is active, then he’d be a solid play in all formats.

Bryce Treggs (WR, PHI) – 1% Owned

Treggs was an undrafted free agent that Philadelphia claimed from San Francisco, and was active for the first time in their Week 9 battle against the Giants after WR Josh Huff was waived. He announced his presence to the league with a nice 58-yard reception, and caught two balls on four targets for 69 yards when the final whistle blew. With Nelson Agholor and Dorial Green-Beckham underwhelming, Treggs could become more than just a big-play threat in short order for the Eagles.

Roger Lewis (WR, NYG) – 1% Owned

Lewis caught one of his two Week 9 targets against the Eagles for a 30-yard TD, which is all well and good in itself, but the story here is that Victor Cruz never returned to the game after suffering an ankle sprain. While it was called a “non-serious” sprain after the game, his Week 10 status is still up in the air. Perhaps Lewis has shown enough to step up if Cruz is limited or out, making him a decent add in very deep leagues.

Week 10 Quarterback Waiver Wire Pickups

Joe Flacco (QB, BAL) – 44% Owned

Flacco still doesn’t look right, and much his still-mediocre game was thanks to lots of YAC by Mr. Mike Wallace on a franchise-record 95-yard TD scamper. Despite this boost, he only tallied 241 yards overall on 18-of-30 passing with that TD and a pick to boot. The thing is, Flacco and the Ravens get to face the Browns at home next week, and that alone makes him a streaming target.

Sam Bradford (QB, MIN) – 34% Owned

Bradford failed to blow us away in a cupcake matchup against the worst pass defense in the league according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, but he still completed 31-of-40 passes for 273 yards and a TD. There was a clear emphasis on quick, high-percentage passes. Of course, there was that whole thing about this being the first week of Pat Shurmur running the offense in the wake of the recently “resigned” Norv Turner. A road date against a rested Josh Norman and Washington looms in Week 10, but some upside looms for those who have faith in this new system taking flight a bit.

Jay Cutler (QB, CHI) – 21% Owned

Cutler and da Bears got a well-deserved week off after embarrassing the Vikings in Week 8, and now get to take on a Buccaneers defense that has made opposing QBs into superstars. Cutty’s thumb looked just fine as he resuscitated the value of Alshon Jeffery, and the resurgence of Jordan Howard helped bring some balance to the offense. He’s a solid streamer here, though a road date with the Giants in Week 11 limits him to a one-week buy.

Colin Kaepernick (QB, SF) –24% Owned

Props to y’all who trusted Kaep enough to stream him against that atrocious Saints defense, as he turned in 398 passing yards and two TDs with 23 rushing yards alongside one interception and a fumble lost. He still had his share of horrid throws, but this was a high-flying affair that rewarded many participants. Week 10 brings a horrible draw in Arizona against the Cardinals though, and Week 11 sees the Patriots roll into San Francisco. His legs give him a decent floor, but he’s unlikely to be better than a mid-range QB2 here.

Jared Goff & Case Keenum (QB, LA) – Both 14% Owned

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: *Knock knock*, “Who’s there?” “Case Keenum” “….Please leave”.

While Keenum didn’t stand much of a chance with Carolina’s stout front seven in his face all Sunday long, he still failed to take advantage of a secondary that has yielded many top QB performances in 2016. He mustered 27 completions on 46 attempts for 296 yards, a TD and a pick. To be fair, Lance Kendricks dropped a pretty easy score. The crowd was chanting for first overall pick Jared Goff, though Fisher hasn’t hinted at a change yet. He should. It sounds like he'll stick with Keenum until the Rams are officially out of contention for 2016 though. Regardless, the Rams get a terrible Jets secondary in Week 10 if one wants to chase here.

Cody Kessler (QB, CLE) – 9% Owned

Kessler didn’t have an easy test in his first week back in action, as Dallas ruled the game with an iron fist for much of the contest. Kessler made several nice throws, but also bounced a TD throw early to Andrew Hawkins before the game got out of hand. This is only for the truly desperate, as Cleveland’s next three weeks before their bye bring @BAL, vs. PIT and vs. NYG matchups.

Nick Foles (QB, KC) – 14% Owned

*Andy Reid just said Alex Smith will start in Week 10, so this can be ignored outside of further injury speculation*

Foles wasn’t very good against Jacksonville in Week 10 (20-of-33 for 187 yards and one TD), but he was missing Spencer Ware and Jeremy Maclin here. If Alex Smith misses more time, Foles would draw a Week 10 start against Carolina’s porous secondary on the road before a dream date at home against the Bucs in Week 11. Don’t look to him for much, but he’s a QB2 who could back his way into low-end QB1 territory should the Chiefs put themselves in a position to exploit Carolina’s weakness.

Week 10 Tight End Waiver Wire Pickups

Cameron Brate (TE, TB) – 37% Owned

Brate’s six targets in Week 9 matched his combined total from their previous two games, and he caught five of them for 43 yards and a late, garbage-time TD. Points are points though, and Brate would be yet another beneficiary should Mike Evans be limited or out due to his concussive symptoms. Tampa Bay draws a Chicago defense next that is middle of the pack against tight ends (16^th in DVOA against them entering Week 9), which makes Brate a TD-dependent guy with a shot at low-end TE1 numbers yet again.

C.J. Fiedorowicz (TE, HOU) – 22% Owned

Fiedorowicz was on a bye and so his ownership dipped a bit, but owners should scoop up the talented Texan as he’s seen at least seven targets in each of his last four games. While Houston’s Week 10 matchup against the Jaguars isn’t particularly appealing (they’re 12^th against the TE), Weeks 11 (@OAK), 12 (vs. SD), 14 (@IND) and 16 (vs. CIN) bring matchups against defenses that rank in the bottom-third in DVOA against the tight end.

Austin Hooper (TE, ATL) – 18% Owned

Hooper finally failed to haul in a target in his first start of his NFL career, but still caught three of his six looks for 46 yards and a touchdown against the Bucs. Jacob Tamme normally sits above him on the depth chart, but a shoulder injury kept him out of Atlanta’s Week 9 tilt and if he misses Week 10 in Philadelphia then Hooper could be a decent TE2. Do note that the Eagles entered Week 9 with the fourth-best defense against TEs according to DVOA though.

Lance Kendricks (TE, LA) – 15% Owned

Kendricks saw a whopping 12 targets in Los Angeles’ Week 9 loss against the Panthers, as the tight end hauled in seven catches for the second straight week. His 90 yards were nice, and a season-high mark, but the day could’ve been so much better had he just held onto a rather easy ball at the goal line that would’ve resulted in six points. Still, he has now seen at least eight targets in each of his last three games, and he’ll face a poor Jets defense next.

Vance McDonald (TE, SF) – 13% Owned

The good news is that McDonald has seen six targets in each of San Francisco’s last two games, with the latest yielding a nice 3-84-1 line for fantasy owners. The bad news is that he has only four catches on those 12 targets, and has benefited from matchups against the respected defenses of Tampa Bay and New Orleans. Matchups against Arizona and New England are likely to be sobering, so just keep an even head when you look at his recent numbers.

Dominique Jones (TE, MIA) – 0% Owned

If you’re absolutely pressed against the wall for a tight end, then perhaps Mr. Jones can help you. Jordan Cameron may have to retire thanks to his concussion history, and Dion Sims is also dealing with a concussion ahead of him on the depth chart. Jones caught three-of-four targets for 42 yards and a TD against the Jets in Week 9, and now faces a San Diego defense whose LB corps is very banged up, as evidenced by their ranking 21^st against the TE per DVOA metrics.

Week 10 Defense Waiver Wire Pickups

Los Angeles D/ST – 39% Owned

The Rams defense is back towards full health, and it showed in Week 9 as they limited Carolina’s offense to a measly 13 points while sacking Cam Newton five times despite LA’s offense offering little help. Now this unit gets to face a Jets team that has a turnover-happy QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick who may not be at 100% after suffering a left knee injury against the Dolphins. May Peyton Manning help them if they are forced to turn to Bryce Petty against this Rams defense. Having Tavon Austin as a return man doesn’t hurt the D/ST chances of a TD either.

Baltimore D/ST – 39% Owned

The Ravens have played quite well this season, with their most recent game being a defensive victory over the Steelers in a gritty divisional game despite their secondary sporting multiple injuries. Now they turn around on a short week to face a Cleveland team that just got taken to the shed by Dallas on Thursday night, but at least Baltimore doesn't have to do any traveling here thanks to back-to-back home games. They should defend their house quite well in Week 10.

Chicago D/ST – 11% Owned

Don’t look now, but Chicago’s defensive line has really brought the pain lately. They’ve recorded multiple sacks in seven of their eight games this season, with their five sacks from Week 8 tying their season high. Now they’re coming fresh out of a bye week into a road matchup with a Buccaneers team that is struggling in all facets of the game. The Bucs were already dinged, and their Week 8 loss to Atlanta saw them finish the game with Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, and starting center Joe Hawley all out with injuries. Keep an eye on Tampa’s practice report, but this is a good matchup for a low-owned defense that deserves more respect.