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Welcome, RotoBallers, to the latest in our weekly rest-of-season series that looks at my top 101 SP Baller Ranks breakdown. We hope you're staying cool as the temperatures and humidity make this writer sweat more than Carlos Rodon watching another first-inning meatball get smashed. Read on for the Week 16 edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
Check out my SP thoughts with tiered ranks, complemented by a rest-of-season auction value ($), their Previous Week's Value (PV), the trend between the two, and a (+/-) column denoting the rank shift compared to last week. Please note most stats here are gathered before Tuesday's games.
These ranks are geared toward traditional 5x5 roto leagues, and I typically exclude most injured SPs, lest a return is imminent. With the break approaching, we'll be a bit more flexible this time. This week will be more "stream of consciousness," so let's see where my mind goes in navigating my top 101 SPs!
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
-Kevin Gausman went into the lab after his worst start of the season (7 ER, 5 BB vs. NYY) and emerged with a potential fix. He entered a prime Seattle matchup with a plan to begin his delivery “more hunched over.” His average vertical and horizontal release points were at their lowest, sliding ~2-3 inches.
Kevin Gausman was getting too much movement, which isn't a problem most pitchers run into.
So he hunched over a bit, turned back the clock on his mechanics and thinks he's found something. From this week's #BlueJays Newsletter: https://t.co/Cm6HLIGwCC
— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) July 9, 2024
The result was ~1.5 mph of gained velocity on his four-seamer, splitter, and sinker, with a spin rate boost of roughly 50 rpm to all of his pitches. He induced 17 whiffs on 37 swings against the four-seamer alone, with 21 whiffs in total. Some of that is on Seattle. We saw Gausman crush Oakland a month ago so one must be open-minded to this being a blip, but a marked change in approach feels encouraging. He lines up to face the Giants in San Francisco on July 11 next.
-Ranger Suarez could use one of those revitalization techniques, as he got smoked by Atlanta for five runs on six hits (two homers) and two walks on Saturday. But at least he had seven strikeouts after zero in the previous clunker. One can rarely run perfectly through an entire MLB season, but the latest poor start bringing strikeouts back at least provides optimism.
If he settles in the 3.00-3.40 ERA range instead of being this mystifying 2.00 ERA breakout, then most can live with that. This writer would buy low if there’s sizable panic afoot.
-Luis Gil pulled out of the spiral by allowing one run on four hits and zero walks (!) with nine strikeouts against the Red Sox on Sunday night. It’s his longest start and the most strikeouts since May 29, as well as his first outing of the season without issuing a free pass.
His average four-seam velocity jumped back up to 97.7 mph from a 96.6 mph average in his previous outing. You have to decide whether this is a brief sell-high window or the beginning of a turnaround. This is a reminder that Gil is nearly at 100 IP after missing most of 2022 and 2023.
-Bobby Miller got demolished again on Tuesday night, allowing nine runs on 10 hits and three walks over four innings. Many are expressing confusion and the Dodgers insist that he’s healthy, but most would prefer to blame a physical issue at this point. The faithful will hope the time off through the midseason break gets him on track, but he’s testing our patience. One can’t blame anyone for jumping ship given the ratio damage done, but remember that first start of the season (6 IP, 0 ER, 11 K)? Ugh.
Bobby Miller & Dave Roberts were adamant that the pitcher is heathy — despite his recent struggles and slight drop in velo
Their belief is that Miller’s struggles have more to do with mechanics/execution. Miller is hoping to reset before his next start, which will be post-ASB
— Jack Harris (@ByJackHarris) July 10, 2024
-Spencer Schwellenbach had a great Saturday against the Phillies, who were missing Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. The rookie once again displayed his six-pitch arsenal, though this time he threw more splitters (20%) with five whiffs on nine swings. One of them was put into play at a hapless 69.7 mph.
Overall, his 37% CSW% on 81 pitches highlights a trend that he’s not afraid to attack the zone. We expect his 5.02 ERA to keep coming down toward the 3.57 FIP/3.62 xFIP/3.62 SIERA.
-Andrew Heaney averaged 83.6 mph with less break on his slider against a yearly average of 81.9 mph and it delivered a 50% whiff rate on 18 thrown. The overall 32% CSW% gives him four straight solid outings (23 ⅓ IP, 7 ER, 2 HR, 6 BB, 30 K) despite facing good offenses in the Mets, Brewers, Orioles, and Rays. (Well, mostly good offenses.) If he’s unlocking some of the form that gave up a 35% strikeout rate in 2022 with the Dodgers, then we have to be there.
-Christian Scott tossed 5 ⅔ IP of two-run ball against the Pirates, with all of the damage coming on an Oneil Cruz home run. It was the only hit he allowed on the day and that’s nothing to be ashamed of. However, he only struck out three batters, which gives him 16 Ks in his last 26 ⅓ IP in the bigs. He’s also given up a homer in five of seven MLB starts.
And then the bigger report came out that not only was Scott intentionally limited to 75 pitches, but he might’ve needed Tommy John surgery last season. Tread carefully and see if a prospect-lover in your league will bite on name value.
-Zac Gallen is showing improved velocity coming off the IL. There were preseason fears around his massive 2023 workload affecting his 2024 campaign, but perhaps this midseason breather will help for the second half. Unfortunately, Arizona left him in an inning too long against Atlanta on Tuesday.
Gallen said the rest helped - fastball velocity by game #DBacks pic.twitter.com/boTOuQZFmr
— MLBdream (@MLBdream) July 9, 2024
-Luis Castillo answered my fear with a strong outing against the Blue Jays, but I’d like to see the whiffs become a trend rather than a one-off before I back down.
-Tanner Houck was done dirty by a rain delay in New York so I’m not going to sweat bullets here, though it seems some are constantly waiting for the other shoe to drop on this breakout. Float a low-ball offer if you’d like.
-Bailey Ober continues to enjoy plus matchup after plus matchup. I hesitate to move him much higher without more of a test, but consistency has to count for something as well.
-Shane Baz looked better than I anticipated in his first major league outing of 2024, especially with the four-seamer command. Can he locate well enough to avoid mistakes against the big Yankee bats in his next turn? I won’t blame anyone for selling early given his lengthy medical sheet, but he has a top-25 upside.
-Gavin Williams had a rough 2024 MLB debut, but turned it around in start No. 2, holding the Tigers scoreless over 5 ⅓ IP. He scattered four hits and a walk with five strikeouts on the day. He notably more than doubled his curveball usage, ramping that up to a career-high ~30%. The average four-seam velocity also climbed from 96.8 mph to 97.5 mph.
The 2021 first-round pick has been fortunate in facing the White Sox and Tigers out of the gate, but he’ll face a Tampa team next. The Rays have the highest team walk rate over the last two weeks so his command will need to be sharp.
-Jose Quintana held Washington to two baserunners over seven scoreless frames and now has back-to-back seven-inning gems against the Nats. He was iffy against Houston on June 28, but had quality wins against the Cubs and Padres before that. Will the Mets capitalize on this surge with the upcoming trade market? Will you?
-Tyler Anderson gives me agita. I accept that some pitchers will outearn most peripherals because they are that good at avoiding barrels and inducing crummy contact. But now Anderson fires out with a 10-strikeout gem (okay, the Cubs are bad right now) after failing to eclipse five strikeouts in a start since April? And with zero walks! If he goes to a contender with better run support at the deadline, then perhaps the run-good doesn’t have to end.
-Edward Cabrera threw 47-of-82 pitches for strikes in his return to the bump after missing two months. He struck out four while walking only one, allowing two runs on four hits in 3 ⅔ IP. ECab remains inefficient but we’ll see if he can mix in more putaway sliders and pump the fastball in for a healthier strike rate against Cincinnati this week.
-Tyler Glasnow hits the injured list with back soreness but is expected back after the break. Glasnow backers can say this explains away the poor recent form while detractors can say this is the tip of the injury iceberg. The Dodgers are happy to give their arms a breather when possible as well, with the All-Star break lining up well for the fewest starts missed. I’ll leave him on for now.
-Zack Wheeler was lifted after five innings with back tightness after a long fourth inning on the bench as Philadelphia pounded Bobby Miller. The move was termed as precautionary and he expects to make his next start, though they may push him to the other side of the break anyway.
Rob Thomson says he assumes Wheeler will make his next start. “He sat for a long time and his back tightened up. Precautionary.”
Also says Rojas will be fine. Didn’t even get x-rays.
— John Foley (@2008Philz) July 10, 2024
-DJ Herz should be back after the All-Star break given the upside we’ve seen, but it’s possible Washington gives him a breather with shorter minor league outings as he works on consistent command.
-Yu Darvish is “physically in a good spot” but is dealing with a “personal matter involving his family,” per Padres manager Mike Shildt. While it’s good to hear that his physical health is better than the elbow inflammation reports from a couple of weeks ago, it’s obviously more important that one’s family is okay. For those who can’t wait out an indefinite timeline, do what you must. Just don’t complain on socials about how he should be pitching instead of being there for family.
-Cooper Criswell should come up for Friday’s start as Josh Winckowski heads back to the bullpen. The 27-year-old just threw six innings of one-hit ball with eight strikeouts and zero walks on July 6 at Triple-A.
-Jackson Jobe just struck out a season-high eight across five innings and could be knocking on the door if Detroit deals Jack Flaherty and/or Tarik Skubal. (Or moves Kenta Maeda to the bullpen.) Jobe hadn’t gone beyond four innings in a start prior to that and also hasn’t walked more than one batter in any of his last seven starts. A left hamstring strain cost him May and the first half of June, but he’s firing on all cylinders right now.
Jackson Jobe ran it up to 100 mph in his rehab outing yesterday at High-A. Check out this 3,330 RPM slider he threw too. pic.twitter.com/tw1htv172f
— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) June 30, 2024
Notable Trade Deadline Candidates:
-Garrett Crochet
-Tarik Skubal
-Jack Flaherty
-Yusei Kikuchi
-Zach Eflin
-Andrew Heaney
-Max Scherzer
-Erick Fedde
-Tyler Anderson
**Contenders Buying SPs: BAL, LAD, HOU, ATL, CLE, MIL, SD, SF, STL? BOS?
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 16
| (+/-) | Tier | Player | Rank | $ | PV | Trend |
| 1 | 1 | Tarik Skubal | 1 | $44.5 | 43.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 3 | 1 | Chris Sale | 2 | $43.5 | 42.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 0 | 1 | Zack Wheeler | 3 | $43.5 | 43.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -3 | 1 | Tyler Glasnow* | 4 | $42.0 | 44.5 | -2.5 ▼ |
| 1 | 2 | Garrett Crochet | 5 | $40.0 | 38.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| -2 | 2 | Corbin Burnes | 6 | $40.0 | 43.0 | -3.0 ▼ |
| 0 | 2 | Paul Skenes | 7 | $38.5 | 38.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 3 | Cole Ragans | 8 | $36.0 | 36.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -1 | 3 | Max Fried | 9 | $36.0 | 36.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 2 | 3 | Joe Ryan | 10 | $34.0 | 33.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 3 | Aaron Nola | 11 | $34.0 | 33.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 3 | Zac Gallen | 12 | $31.5 | 31.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -3 | 3 | Gerrit Cole | 13 | $31.5 | 34.0 | -2.5 ▼ |
| -3 | 3 | Sonny Gray | 14 | $31.0 | 34.0 | -3.0 ▼ |
| 0 | 3 | George Kirby | 15 | $31.0 | 31.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 3 | Logan Gilbert | 16 | $31.0 | 31.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 3 | Grayson Rodriguez | 17 | $30.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -1 | 3 | Logan Webb | 18 | $29.0 | 30.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 0 | 3 | Justin Steele | 19 | $27.0 | 27.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 3 | Seth Lugo | 20 | $27.0 | 26.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 0 | 4 | Tanner Bibee | 21 | $26.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 4 | Luis Castillo | 22 | $26.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 4 | Shota Imanaga | 23 | $25.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 4 | Tanner Houck | 24 | $25.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 4 | Pablo Lopez | 25 | $24.0 | 24.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 4 | Freddy Peralta | 26 | $24.0 | 23.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -1 | 4 | Dylan Cease | 27 | $23.0 | 24.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 2 | 4 | Reynaldo Lopez | 28 | $23.0 | 20.5 | 2.5 ▲ |
| 3 | 4 | Bailey Ober | 29 | $22.0 | 19.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 1 | 4 | Jack Flaherty | 30 | $20.5 | 20.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 4 | Hunter Brown | 31 | $20.5 | 19.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 3 | 4 | Taj Bradley | 32 | $19.0 | 18.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 1 | 4 | Cristopher Sanchez | 33 | $18.0 | 19.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 8 | 4 | Nathan Eovaldi | 34 | $18.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 4 | Michael King | 35 | $18.0 | 17.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 0 | 4 | Ronel Blanco | 36 | $18.0 | 17.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -9 | 4 | Ranger Suarez | 37 | $18.0 | 23.0 | -5.0 ▼ |
| 3 | 4 | Kutter Crawford | 38 | $17.5 | 16.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 6 | 5 | Kevin Gausman | 39 | $16.5 | 14.0 | 2.5 ▲ |
| -1 | 5 | Max Scherzer | 40 | $16.0 | 16.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -3 | 5 | MacKenzie Gore | 41 | $16.0 | 16.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -2 | 5 | Gavin Stone | 42 | $15.0 | 16.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 0 | 5 | Ryan Pepiot | 43 | $15.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 5 | Nick Pivetta | 44 | $14.5 | 14.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 3 | 6 | Hunter Greene | 45 | $14.0 | 12.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 4 | 6 | Luis Gil | 46 | $14.0 | 12.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 5 | 6 | Reese Olson | 47 | $12.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| N/A | 6 | Blake Snell | 48 | $12.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 0 | 6 | Nestor Cortes | 49 | $12.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 6 | Shane Baz | 50 | $12.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 6 | Nick Lodolo | 51 | $11.5 | N/A | N/A |
| 5 | 6 | Yusei Kikuchi | 52 | $11.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| -6 | 6 | Carlos Rodon | 53 | $10.0 | 12.0 | -2.0 ▼ |
| -1 | 6 | Gavin Williams | 54 | $10.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 4 | 6 | Jake Irvin | 55 | $10.0 | 8.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| -5 | 6 | Zach Eflin | 56 | $10.0 | 11.5 | -1.5 ▼ |
| -1 | 6 | Mitch Keller | 57 | $9.0 | 10.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -4 | 6 | Framber Valdez | 58 | $8.5 | 10.0 | -1.5 ▼ |
| -4 | 7 | Matt Waldron | 59 | $8.5 | 10.0 | -1.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 7 | Bryce Miller | 60 | $8.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 7 | Erick Fedde | 61 | $8.5 | 8.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 7 | Spencer Schwellenbach | 62 | $8.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 8 | 7 | Andrew Heaney | 63 | $8.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| -20 | 7 | Bobby Miller | 64 | $7.0 | 14.5 | -7.5 ▼ |
| -7 | 7 | Chris Bassitt | 65 | $6.0 | 8.5 | -2.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 7 | Kyle Gibson | 66 | $6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -6 | 7 | Christian Scott | 67 | $5.5 | 8.5 | -3.0 ▼ |
| 9 | 7 | Jose Quintana | 68 | $5.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 ▲ |
| -5 | 7 | Tobias Myers | 69 | $5.5 | 7.0 | -1.5 ▼ |
| -5 | 8 | Jose Berrios | 70 | $5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -4 | 8 | Mitchell Parker | 71 | $5.0 | 5.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 15 | 8 | Jameson Taillon | 72 | $4.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 ▲ |
| -4 | 8 | Marcus Stroman | 73 | $4.5 | 5.5 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -4 | 8 | Brandon Pfaadt | 74 | $4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 1 | 8 | Simeon Woods Richardson | 75 | $4.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 9 | 9 | Brady Singer | 76 | $3.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 6 | 9 | Andrew Abbott | 77 | $3.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 8 | 9 | Michael Wacha | 78 | $3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -5 | 9 | Spencer Arrighetti | 79 | $2.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 ▼ |
| 13 | 9 | Tyler Anderson | 80 | $2.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 9 | 9 | Sean Manaea | 81 | $2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -9 | 9 | Charlie Morton | 82 | $2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 ▼ |
| N/A | 9 | Edward Cabrera | 83 | $2.0 | N/A | N/A |
| -3 | 9 | Landon Knack | 84 | $2.0 | 2.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| N/A | 9 | Dean Kremer | 85 | $2.0 | N/A | N/A |
| -7 | 9 | Zack Littell | 86 | $2.0 | 2.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -3 | 9 | Carson Spiers | 87 | $2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 9 | Drew Thorpe | 88 | $2.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 9 | Yariel Rodriguez | 89 | $2.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 6 | 10 | Ben Lively | 90 | $1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -2 | 10 | Jose Soriano | 91 | $1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 6 | 10 | Jonathan Cannon | 92 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -11 | 10 | Michael Lorenzen | 93 | $1.0 | 2.5 | -1.5 ▼ |
| N/A | 10 | Albert Suarez | 94 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 10 | Colin Rea | 95 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 5 | 10 | Brayan Bello | 96 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 10 | Keider Montero | 97 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 10 | Jordan Hicks | 98 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 10 | James Paxton | 99 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 10 | Joey Estes | 100 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 10 | Aaron Civale | 101 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
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