Thursday Night Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Broncos vs Browns

October 20, 2021

Fantasy football start em, sit em and lineups advice for the Broncos vs Browns Thursday Night game in Week 7. Ellis' TNF matchups analysis and game breakdown.

Welcome to Week Seven, the week many analysts are referring to as the “bye-pocalypse”. With Buffalo, Dallas, Jacksonville, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh all on bye, it’s going to be a tough week for many fantasy managers. 

Not only are people’s line-ups devoured with bye weeks, but injuries in the NFL keep stacking up. Last week we, unfortunately, saw a few key fantasy players come down with injuries. Specifically, we saw two of the most prominent players in this matchup get banged up with both Nick Chubb missing last week and Kareem Hunt leaving the game.

Nevertheless, we will look for ways to start your week off on the right foot! In this matchup, we have two 3-3 teams who are coming off of important losses. The Browns fell to the red-hot Cardinals in Week Six, while the Broncos cratered to a rallied Raiders squad. As always, thank you for starting your week off with RotoBaller’s Thursday Night Preview. Let’s get to it!

Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns

8:20 pm EST 

Notable Injuries

• Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, CLE) - Shoulder - Questionable
• Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE) - Questionable
• Nick Chubb (RB, CLE) - Calf - Out
• Kareem Hunt (RB, CLE) - Calf - Out
• Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE) - Shoulder - Out
• Teddy Bridgewater (QB, DEN) - Questionable

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN): Sutton is coming off of his third big performance this season. Over the last two weeks, he has had 15 receptions for 214 yards and two touchdowns. Although it is a small sample, Sutton is the WR-five over the last two weeks. Outside of these two performances, Sutton has three games where he failed to reach seven fantasy points. In these games, it is possible to see the narrative that they may have been a result of the Broncos grabbing an early lead and not needing to throw the ball, and also the game where Drew Lock took over for an injured Teddy Bridgewater. Outside of these games, with a healthy Bridgewater and a competitive game script, Sutton has produced. This week he takes on a Browns defense that has given up a ridiculous 84 points and eight passing touchdowns over the last two weeks. Sutton should be able to keep rolling as I see him as a high-end WR2 this week.

Noah Fant (TE, DEN): Fant is coming off his league-leading Week Six performance where he had 11 targets, nine receptions, 97 yards, and a touchdown. This is his second time this year with double-digit targets and his third game with a touchdown. This season he is the TE7 and has proven to be a relatively reliable option at the position. This trend should continue in Week Seven as the Browns defense is around league average for fantasy points to the tight end position. If you have Fant, you probably don’t have a better option and should feel confident plugging him into your line-up this week. 

Solid Options for Fantasy Football Lineups

D’Ernest Johnson (RB, CLE): After many teams broke the bank to acquire Johnson off waivers, he will step in as the lead back. The third-year RB has only had double-digit carries once in his career. That game came in Week Four of 2020 where he had 13 carries for 95 yards. Although a dated and limited sample, there is optimism that he can carry the load and be productive. As for the matchup, Denver has been very solid against the run this year, averaging only 85 rushing yards a game. With Hunt out, the passing work will likely go to Demetric Felton, and Johnson will attain the Chubb role on the offense. Johnson is a mid-tier RB2 this week and becomes more of a “solid option” than “must start”.

Tim Patrick (WR, DEN): Patrick enters Week Seven as one of the most undervalued top 30 receivers in NFL history. Sitting at WR30 on the season, Patrick has been very solid for fantasy. He has averaged 57 yards, four receptions, and 0.5 touchdowns this season. With Jerry Jeudy’s continued absence, Patrick should continue to find involved in the offense. Patrick is a rock-solid WR3 this week and is as good as any to find the end zone in week seven.

Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE): Coming off a knee injury, Landry comes back to a team that is desperate for pass catchers. We have only seen one full game from Landry this year, where he had five receptions for 71 yards and a rushing score. It's always a risk playing him as he has not been consistent over the last few years. Plus, playing someone coming off an injury carries a risk of its own. Despite all of this, the ball has to go somewhere. Keenum is a very functional QB, and I think Landry will be his favourite target. I'm projecting him to be a solid WR3 this week.

Teddy Bridgewater (QB, DEN): Despite missing some time, Bridgewater is the QB19 on the season. If you have watched him, it may not look pretty, however, he has produced for fantasy. This season he has had between 18 and 22 fantasy points in four of six weeks. That’s the definition of a QB-two in Superflex leagues. This week, on the road against Case Keenum, he should find a way to be productive yet again. I would start him as a top-20 option this week. 

Melvin Gordon III & Javonte Williams (RB, DEN): In a week riddled with players on bye, I expect these two will find themselves in more line-ups than usual. Thankfully, both have been steady for fantasy coming in as the RB-17 and RB-34 respectively. Based on their fantasy performances, Gordon is the preferred option of the two. However, both are seeing sufficient work to be played this week. Williams has five fewer carries on the year, 32 fewer rushing yards, and one less target on the year. The difference in their production relies solely on Gordon’s extra touchdown and 30 more receiving yards. It’s not often the NFL that provides us with a true 50-50 RB committee, but that’s exactly what Denver is doing. With Gordon being the preferred option, I would start both as an RB-three this week with mid-RB-two upside if one manages to find the end zone.

Chase McLaughlin & Brandon McManus (K, CLE & DEN): This is what this preview has come to. For the first time ever, this article is featuring both kickers in this matchup. Why? Both these kickers are tied at the K12 on the season. This game is projected to be a methodical game as Vegas has the over/under set at an underwhelming 42.5. The Browns and the Broncos are 27th and 28th respectively in red-zone conversion rate. With both teams having sufficient offenses to find themselves in field goal range, this could be a kicker duel. Both can be started as there aren’t many kickers this week who find themselves in a better matchup.

Flex Considerations for Fantasy Football Lineups

Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR, CLE): This may seem like chasing fantasy points, but DPJ has looked good lately. Over the two weeks, he has averaged the 11th most points per game. Coming off back-back 70+ yard and 5+ target games, he has been getting the usage to be a flex play this week. Relying on the Browns pass attack is always a risk, but with Hunt and Landry out you could do worse than DPJ in your flex.

Case Keenum (QB, CLE): With Baker Mayfield missing the game due to injury, Keenum is the next man up. As one of the better back-ups in the league, this is not a death sentence for the Cleveland offense. This game should be competitive, and I think Keenum will manage to be serviceable this week. With so many QBs on bye, he could fill in for any desperate fantasy teams. Personally, I view him similar to Geno Smith for Week Seven.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, CLE): That’s right, I’m playing Peoples-Jones over OBJ this week. Beckham Jr. is WR72 in points per game this season and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week Four of 2020. I feel like I could end my analysis there. Nevertheless, here are some more statistics. Last week he managed a solid game with five catches for 79 yards, so he can be productive. However, he has not strung together two 60+ yard games since Weeks 11 and 12 of the 2019 season. Off of name-value and talent, you can always find a narrative for OBJ to have a big week, which has led him to be a fantasy headache for years. With Case Keenum under center, there is a world where he hyper-targets the alpha receiver. If that’s what you think, feel free to play him if you are stuck. Just don’t be surprised if he struggles. 

Demetric Felton (RB/WR, CLE): With the depth chart stepping in for the Browns, Felton should be on the fantasy radar. Despite his RB designation, the Browns have only used him as a receiver this season. The team has said that they like putting the ball in his hands and might get him more involved this week. Unfortunately, we have not seen enough of him to play him this week with any confidence. However, if you have the bench space, he might be worth a hold to see his involvement this week.

Austin Hooper, David Njoku, & Harrison Bryant (TE, CLE): I just listed three tight ends on the same team who all have 10+ targets on the season. This is a nightmare for fantasy managers. Remember, you can’t win your matchup on Thursday, but you can lose it. 

For the first time this season, I incorrectly chose the over/under and the spread. In a heartbreaking loss where a random two-point conversion and a missed field goal made both picks miss, I’m hoping to bounce back this week. This matchup is definitely a tougher one to call, with both sides missing key offensive players and both defenses underperforming this season. These teams are each looking to forget the previous week, and I think these defenses will be on a mission after each got torched for 30+ points last week. As I alluded to before, this might be a great game if you're a fan of field goals and punts. So with that, I wish you all good luck this week. I’m already excited to see you next week as we have the Packers traveling to the desert to take on the red-hot Cardinals.

Ellis’ Picks: Denver +3.5 (3-3), Under 42.5 (5-1)

Career record: Spread (12-12), Over/Under (14-10)

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