The Cut List - Time To Let Go? Who To Consider Dropping For Fantasy Baseball (Week 16)

July 12, 2026

The fantasy baseball Cut List for Week 16 of 2026. Jamie analyzes potential fantasy baseball busts, overvalued players, and injured players to consider dropping.

Welcome back to The Cut List as we head into Week 16 of the 2026 fantasy baseball season. For those who are not familiar, this is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look.

We'll look at players who are worth monitoring for replacing and someone on the hot seat who should be held on to... for now. Experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone.

If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name in the Reddit comments, the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms, or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo). Maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

Pitchers

MacKenzie Gore - SP, Texas Rangers - 80% rostered

Few pitchers can infuriate fantasy managers like Gore can. After moving to the most pitcher-friendly ballpark, many hoped that Gore could have his best season in the Majors. After 19 starts, his 4.72 ERA is a career-high, and he's heading into the All-Star break with a 5.90 ERA since June 01 (seven starts).

Although Gore's ERA has been climbing, his underlying numbers in those seven starts are better than his first 12 starts. The table below shows Gore's numbers before and after June 01.

It's difficult to look at the numbers and think Gore's recent struggles are anything more than some bad luck in a small sample. If you didn't know his ERA, everything else points towards it lowering since June 01. Unfortunately for Gore's fantasy managers, that's not been the case.

Verdict: 

As frustrating as Gore has been recently, it's difficult to drop him. The strikeouts will always provide a solid floor, even when his luck is not good. If the strikeouts aren't providing you much value, moving on makes sense. But in most formats, Gore is still worth rostering.

Will Warren - SP, New York Yankees - 64% rostered

While Warren is having a solid season, things have been going downhill. He is scheduled to start today's game and will look to improve upon a 7-4 W-L record, 4.15 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 94 strikeouts (93 1/3 innings). What Warren has to do is start going deeper into games if he is to maintain fantasy value.

Warren had five quality starts in his first 12 appearances of the season. In his six starts since June 01, Warren hasn't managed to get through six innings and has a 6.21 ERA (29 innings). After walking more than one batter in only three of his first 10 starts in 2026, Warren has walked multiple batters in seven of his last eight starts.

It's not just the walks causing Warren issues. Batters have a .281 batting average against Warren in his last eight starts. Before that, hitters had a .238 batting average. Given that Warren had a .311 BABIP against him in his last eight starts and a .312 BABIP before then, it's not just a case of bad luck.

Verdict: 

If the Yankees rotation is all healthy, either Warren or Ryan Weathers is likely to lose their starting job. That remains a big if. Even if that doesn't materialize, Warren hasn't been good enough to warrant rostering in most leagues. He's still a hold in dynasty and deep leagues, but I'd look elsewhere outside of those formats.

Ryan Helsley - RP, Baltimore Orioles - 64% rostered

No sooner had Helsley returned from the IL (injured list) than he found himself back on it. After missing seven weeks due to elbow inflammation earlier this year, Helsley lasted less than two weeks, making just five appearances before he returned to the IL with elbow discomfort.

Orioles Place Ryan Helsley on Injured List With Elbow Discomfort https://t.co/TNDCstTUe1

— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) July 4, 2026

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As if two IL stints in quick succession due to elbow issues isn't concerning enough, we got further news earlier this week that Helsley is seeking a second opinion. Last night, it emerged that Helsley's UCL is intact, but he is once again dealing with inflammation.

Considering that Helsley missed seven weeks with inflammation earlier this season, that gives us a baseline as to what to expect. However, it seems like he needed more time on the IL, seeing as he's back on there with the same issue. September feels like the earliest we'll see Helsley again this year.

Verdict: 

As we go into the All-Star break, fantasy managers will be looking at tinkering with their teams. That can involve stashing injured players. If you have a bit of a roster crunch or you're struggling for IL spots, there's little point in hanging on to Helsley. There's no guarantee we'll see him again in 2027. Helsley is droppable in all redraft leagues.

Hitters

Ian Happ - OF, Chicago Cubs - 89% rostered

Happ started 2026 on fire. It's that hot start to the season that still has him on pace for a career-high number of home runs. Happ's 162-game pace is for 30 home runs, 75 RBI, 105 runs, and seven stolen bases. Even with a .222 batting average, fantasy managers would have taken those numbers when drafting him.

The reason Happ is featured on The Cut List is his recent struggles. He ended May with a .230/.349/.469 slash line. Since then, Happ has been hitting .208/.291/.376. From June 1, Happ's 162-game pace is for 19 homers, 56 RBI, 93 runs, and nine steals. If we look at the last four weeks, things are worse.

Since June 15, Happ is hitting .217/.301/.301 with a 162-game pace of seven homers, 35 RBI, 92 runs, and no steals. Obviously, the runs have been consistently there. But Happ is offering little else. Things have also been trending the wrong way.

Verdict: 

We've seen periods of nothingness from Happ in the past. Generally, he recovers from slumps and puts up solid numbers every year. He's set to do the same this year. In shallow leagues or those only playing three or four outfielders, Happ is borderline rosterable, and an upgrade might be available on waivers.

Taylor Ward - OF, Baltimore Orioles - 84% rostered

Having never topped 25 home runs in a season before, Ward's 36 homers last year seemed like a bit of an anomaly. Even if you didn't believe in another 30+ homer season, fantasy managers were expecting more than the six he's hit this year. The only thing Ward has carried over is availability.

Ward has played all but one of the Orioles' games this year and has now missed just 12 games since the start of the 2024 season. That has helped him to score 57 runs this year. Only eight outfield-eligible players have more. Similarly to Happ, that's about all Ward is helping with unless your league values OBP.

Ward has 73 walks, the third most in the Majors. His 16.8% BB% ranks in the 98th percentile and has kept Ward hitting in a prominent spot in the Orioles' lineup. While Ward's quality of contact has regressed this year, the biggest issue appears to be a lack of fly balls.

When we add in a dramatic drop in Ward's Barrel% (from 13.7% in 2025 to 5.6% in 2026), it adds up to a lack of home runs. Ward entered this year with a 14.2% HR/FB. This year, he has a 5.6% HR/FB. When you hit the ball in the air less and not as hard, you're unlikely to have much success.

Ward homered last night and has now recorded a hit in eight of his last nine games. The problem is, only two have been extra-base hits. You may want to ride this moderate short period of production and hope it turns into more power. Just don't be surprised if it doesn't.

Verdict: 

It's difficult to understand why Ward has seen such a large drop in his power production. It may be due to some underlying injury, which we don't know about, or a mechanical change in his swing. Whatever the reason, unless you need the runs and his excellent walk rate, Ward is worth replacing in all but deep leagues.

Eugenio Suarez - 3B, Cincinnati Reds - 69% rostered

Regular readers will know that I preach patience after a player has missed time. Following an oblique injury, Suarez missed a month, returning on May 23. In the three weeks after his return, Suarez hit .200/.269/.350. Since then (June 13), Suarez is hitting .188/.281/.412.

While the power seems to be returning, it's still only moderate, and Suarez's batting average is offsetting any production he is having with counting stats. Yes, he homered last night. He'll keep doing that. But he'll also keep having weeks of going 4-for-22. There's only so much patience a person can have.

There's not even anything in his underlying numbers to suggest we will see significant improvement after the All-Star break. Suarez has a .185 xBA (expected batting average), which ranks in the first percentile.

His .300 xSLG (expected slugging percentage) ranks in the third percentile. None of Suarez's quality of contact metrics rank in the 50th percentile or better.

Verdict: 

Even if he does start hitting for more power, Suarez will need to hit 20+ home runs in the second half to offset the negative impact of his batting average. While I wouldn't be against it, I'm not rostering Suarez unless you really need home runs. Even then, Suarez may not provide more than modest help.

On the Hot Seat

Davis Martin - SP, Chicago White Sox - 75% rostered

I didn't expect to be featuring a White Sox pitcher in The Cut List when the season began. That was down to them not having much of a rotation worth rostering in fantasy. However, we head into the All-Star break with the White Sox in a battle for first place and with some fantasy-viable players.

None more so on the pitching side than Martin. He'll be entering the second half of the season with a 9-4 W-L record, 3.41 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 92 strikeouts (100 1/3 innings). His numbers this year are excellent, but he's regressed recently. Since June 01, Martin has had a 6.34 ERA (seven starts).

Martin has still managed three very good starts in that run. The problem has been that when it's bad, it's very bad. Martin has walked 17 batters and struck out 21 in the last seven starts (32 2/3 innings). Everything has been trending in the wrong direction, as we can see below.

The strikeouts have been declining, while the walks have been increasing. If we look at his ERA and xFIP, it shows that some natural regression was due. But his expected results have also been worsening. So Martin's recent run isn't just down to some expected regression.

Martin missed the 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery (TJS). Last year, Martin totaled 142 2/3 innings with a 4.10 ERA, 4.57 xFIP, and 4.68 SIERA. So it's a little tough to trust he's having a breakout campaign at age 29, especially after his recent struggles.

That being said, we shouldn't just ignore his early-season form. Martin pitched well and warranted his success in the opening two months of the year. Martin's recent struggles also shouldn't be ignored and look as likely to continue as any return to his April and May form.

Verdict: 

Martin hasn't fallen off a cliff. He's flashed enough promise to justify holding him a while longer. The inconsistency Martin has shown recently will probably continue, but the good starts are enough to cling to. If they start being fewer and farther between, then Martin will become nothing more than a streaming option.

Reader Requests

As always, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone you want to include on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread or in the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X, and we'll endeavor to cover some requests each week.

Jackson Merrill - OF, San Diego Padres - 93% rostered

Merrill featured in an earlier edition of The Cut List. Back then, I said that we don't know who or what Merrill is as a hitter. After coming second in the NL Rookie of the Year vote in 2024, he's yet to recreate that impressive debut season. Injuries hampered Merrill last season. This season, he's just been disappointing.

His numbers have regressed year-on-year. All facets of Merrill's slash line have declined. He's striking out more, and while Merrill's HardHit% has improved, he's hitting more ground balls than ever. Then we have the Padres lineup, which is last in runs scored (374) this year.

Despite all of that, Merrill still ranks 42nd among outfielders (Yahoo! standard 5x5 rotisserie scoring). That is largely down to his 19 stolen bases. Only seven outfield-eligible players have more. Merrill has also started showing signs of life, hitting .293/.356/.439 in 11 July games. Small sample, but positive signs nonetheless.

Verdict: 

Merrill hasn't been able to replicate his rookie season as yet. He's stealing more bases than ever, and that's kept him fantasy relevant. If his recent mini improvement at the plate can carry into the second half of the season, Merrill could still end up having a solid season. He's worth hanging onto. But only just.

Brandon Nimmo - OF, Texas Rangers - 70% rostered

Nimmo is having a very mediocre season. After 89 games, Nimmo is hitting .258/.327/.416 with nine homers, 32 RBI, 38 runs, and four steals. His streak of three consecutive 20+ homer seasons is set to end. It's unlikely that Nimmo will make it three straight years with double-digit stolen bases.

However, it's not been all Nimmo's fault. According to Statcast, of the 256 qualified hitters, only Will Smith has a bigger difference between his xSLG and SLG, and his xwOBA and wOBA. A look at Nimmo's Statcast Profile, and we can see that Nimmo's numbers should be a lot better than they are.

I was out on Nimmo and all Rangers hitters coming into 2026. That was due to their ballpark being the least hitter-friendly in baseball. That is showing in Nimmo's numbers, as he's hitting .222/.287/.333 with a 76 wRC+ at Globe Life Field and .291/.363/.492 with a 138 wRC+ on the road.

Verdict: 

While I do expect Nimmo's numbers to improve, his home ballpark will continue to harm his fantasy value. In deeper leagues or if you have a few bench spots, holding Nimmo and just starting him on the road is the ideal play. If that's not possible for you, I'd still struggle to make a case for holding him.

Bubba Chandler - SP, Pittsburgh Pirates - 58% rostered

Just as Chandler was building up some trust with his fantasy managers, he lost it again. Chandler had four straight starts in June, allowing no more than two runs in any of them. He struck out 18 and walked eight with a 2.82 ERA (22 1/3 innings). Chandler's next two starts erased that momentum.

Chandler gave up five runs against the Phillies and followed that up by allowing four runs in four innings against the Nationals. Notably, they're two tough lineups. But during Chandler's four-game run of solid outings, he faced three teams that rank in the top-12 for runs scored this year.

What is also notable is that Chandler had a 4.62 xFIP and 4.47 SIERA during those four games. His 2.82 ERA seems like some small-sample luck. Chandler has a 4.77 ERA, 5.11 xFIP, and 5.06 SIERA, so he's been getting the results he should expect. And they just haven't been good.

Yesterday was a mixed bag for Chandler. He only allowed two earned runs and struck out six batters. But he walked three and failed to complete five innings. It pretty much summed up Chandler's first half. Some good, but not enough to be a viable fantasy option.

Verdict: 

I'd still hold Chandler in dynasty leagues. He's 23 years old and has 125 2/3 MLB innings to his name. But for 2026, he's someone I'm only holding in deep redraft leagues. Chandler's performances have been too inconsistent to trust him, and the bad starts have outweighed any positive outings that Chandler has had.

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