April 10, 2017

Brad Johnson's fantasy baseball daily streaming picks for April 11th. Pitcher and hitter streamers for MLB DFS games, and head-to-head (H2H) waiver wire targets.

Welcome back to Streaming Wars, your daily source of waiver wire and streaming advice.

Here are your pitcher and hitter streaming targets for Tuesday, April 11th.

Let's get to it.

Agenda

1. Coors Field is God
2. Today's Weather and Updates
3. Tomorrow's Picks

1. Coors Field is God

DFS players know to use any and all players at Coors Field. In fact, that particular meta has grown too popular. Now large tournament participants avoid Coors Field because the players involved are always overrostered. The result is a fun game of cat-and-mouse, trying to determine if the market will under or over correct for the Coors Field effect on a given day.

Of course, season-long fantasy leagues need not concern themselves with ownership rates. A player is either on your waiver wire, or he is not. When a team like the Padres visits Colorado, upwards of five regular hitters suddenly transform from waiver inventory to must-own properties. Even the Rockies have a couple guys with low ownership rates.

Coors Field buffs every type of offense. Home runs fly in the rarefied air, aided by lesser pitch movement. Not only is stuff diminished, visiting pitchers often see their command decline by a full grade on the 20-80 scouting scale. It can really mess with a pitcher's head. The field itself is huge, leaving plenty of open real estate for dinkers and bloopers.

In short, don't be ashamed to target Coors Field hitters early and often.

2. Today's Weather and Updates

The weather should not affect today's games. Chicago may start a tad late due to thunderstorms, but they're supposed to resolve by early evening. Tomorrow is looking swell per this largely unhelpful weather map. Maybe it will rain a tad in Pittsburgh?

3. Tomorrow's Picks - Tuesday, April 11th

The Czar of Scheduling likes to leave a little redundancy in April just in case games need to be rescheduled. As a result, there are only 12 games tomorrow.

 
Pitchers to Use

This early in the season, it's difficult to get a sense of what is "real" and what is merely one solid outing. For example, Lance Lynn survived a tough matchup against the Cubs last week. He should find the Reds to be an easier opponent. Lynn's success never made much sense from a statistical perspective. I remain hesitant actually recommending him. It's safer to stash him in case he recaptures his name value.

Wily Peralta also fits in the uncomfortable bin. His velocity was up during his 2017 debut, and based on the inning I watched, it appeared as though his command was in the 50 to 60 range on the 20-80 scouting scale (i.e. slightly better than average). Peralta struggled early last year due to 30 grade command (i.e. very below average). His slider remains unimpressive. Peralta is visiting the Blue Jays in DH-Land.

As for pitchers I can confidently recommend, that's a list of one - Bartolo Colon. The Braves top starter began the season on a high note. While he's unlikely to strike out a Marlin per inning, he'll use his wiles to keep Miami from piling on runs. As long as Colon allows his typical three runs over six plus innings, he'll have a good shot at earning a victory.

Matt Boyd looked downright flustered against the White Sox last week. I liked what I saw late last season and during Spring Training, but that pitcher didn't show up in Chicago. It always takes cojones to use a pitcher after a terrible start. His solid four pitch mix could keep the Twins off balance - assuming his command returns.

Joe Musgrove and Ariel Miranda square off in a week one rematch. Musgrove is an interesting command and control guy, although he was a tad shaky last week. Pitchers of this profile tend to have a few bumpy seasons before figuring it out. Think Kyle Hendricks. Miranda would be an exploit due to a well below average fastball, but his offspeed stuff has really messed with the Houston sluggers.

Other Targets: nada

 
Pitchers to Exploit

I watched Clay Buchholz's start against the Reds. Through the first three innings, he showed 50 grade command and easily handled the Reds hitters. When he came out in the fourth inning, his command had completely evaporated. This is not an atypical Buchholz experience. It's why he's such a frustrating fantasy player. We can neither use nor abuse him with confidence.

Rookie Davis has the look of a quality pitcher. The stuff, however, is lacking. Daniel Nava tore Davis apart, first hammering a hanging breaking ball out of the park and then launching a fastball. PNC Park should help him keep the ball in the yard - both of Nava's home runs would have been right around the wall in Pittsburgh. Even so, I expect the Pirates offense to explode.

Jered Weaver pitching at Coors Field? Woof. He's opposed by righty Anthony Senzatela. He has a decent fastball-slider combo mixed with below average command. He was effectively wild against the Brewers, including a fastball to Keon Broxton's face. We'll see how the Padres look against the fresh arm.

Other Targets: Hector Santiago, James Shields, Dan Straily, Tyler Skaggs

 
Homers on the Wire

The Braves use Adonis Garcia as the unlikeliest clean up hitter in baseball. The ground ball hitter has a positive matchup against fly ball pitcher Dan Straily. When batted ball tendencies diverge like this, it usually means the batter is more likely to produce hard contact with optimal launch angles.

Coors Field offers four sluggers on the wire tomorrow - Ryan Schimpf, Yangervis Solarte, Mark Reynolds, and Gerardo Parra. I'm a big fan of both Padres hitters, and you sure can't spit on a Weaver matchup for those Rockies bats. Schimpf has a ton of fly ball power while Solarte skews towards run production. Tony Wolters will probably catch if you need to a replacement backstop.

The Mariners stack versus Musgrove could prey upon a mistake or three. Mitch Haniger remains my favorite of the bunch. He has explosive power and speed. The batting average may hurt over a full season. As long as he's batting second, he's outright ownable in most formats. Danny Valencia and Leonys Martin offer a higher floor with less upside. Martin can steal bases too.

Other Targets: Trey Mancini, Justin Smoak, Josh Bell, Asdrubal Cabrera, Neil Walker, Lucas Duda, Robbie Grossman, Matt Davidson, Geovany Soto

 
Steals on the Wire

Chris Owings is tied for the league lead with four stolen bases. He's running early and often as a part of his fast start to the season. Owings' ground ball approach is best used in Arizona where the rock hard infield can aid his batting average. Unfortunately, he's on the road at pitcher friendly AT&T stadium versus southpaw Matt Moore. Neither Owings nor Moore have platoon splits.

Craig Gentry leads off for the Orioles against left-handed pitching. Can you believe it?

Another leadoff hitter, Adam Frazier, likes to attempt steals. Unfortunately, his success rates are flat out terrible. It's shocking he's still allowed to run. He's opposed by the rookie Davis.

Coors Field offers plenty of room for Manuel Margot and Travis Jankowski to dink and dunk their way on base. They're both multi-steal threats on any given day.

Other Targets: Gorkys Hernandez, Jarrod Dyson, Delino DeShields, Jose Reyes

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