Hitter Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds - Average Exit Velocity for Week 4

May 2, 2022

Statcast batter leaders and fallers in Week 4 of the 2022 MLB season according to average exit velocity. Pierre Camus evaluates hitters who could be fantasy baseball adds or drops according to advanced sabermetrics.

We can finally start extrapolating something from one of the easiest Statcast metrics to decipher - exit velocity. This stat stabilizes after approximately 70 plate appearances or 45 batted-ball events.

Last week, we looked at early leaders in maximum exit velocity because it doesn't take long to take something away from that metric. Keep in mind that max exit velocity and FB/LD exit velo can be tied more directly to power but this article will focus on overall exit velocity.

As always, I'll examine unexpected players that show up on the top and bottom end of the Statcast leaderboard to figure out if they will stay there and what it means for 2022 fantasy baseball. Don't forget to check out the pitcher version of this weekly piece as well.

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Average Exit Velocity Leaders

All stats courtesy of BaseballSavant and current as of 5/1/22.

Tommy Pham, Cincinnati Reds

94.9 MPH avg. exit velocity

His current EV is a career-high but he has been among the league leaders once before - 2018 when he posted a 93 MPH avg. exit velocity. That year, he was also in the top 10 percentile in xBA, xSLG, and Hard Hit%. That actually wasn't his best season from a fantasy perspective, though. His 2017 season was the real breakout and he then struggled in the first half of 2018 before being traded to Tampa and surging in the second half.

Pham again finds himself in new digs with a hitter-friendly environment but on an offense that has been among the worst in the league. Pham is slashing just .211/.309/.394 with three HR and six RBI thus far, not exactly showing out. Behind the hood, everything looks pretty good and his .262 xBA shows some regression might come. If Joey Votto and company can get things going, Pham could take off soon.

Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies

93 MPH avg. exit velocity

There's been a lot of ups and downs for McMahon early in the season. Mainly up in the batter's box and down on the field.

Ryan McMahon hit this one out in a hurry! pic.twitter.com/oDzyKPFe7G

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 30, 2022

Welcome back Roman Quinn! Ryan McMahon is having an awful series at 3rd base pic.twitter.com/8kJPeWcpWn

— Brodes Media (@BrodesMedia) April 28, 2022

He's moved all around the infield in Colorado, primarily playing 2B in 2019-2020 before transitioning to 3B last year. Despite his fielding issues this season, he'll stick in the lineup because of his bat.

McMahon is posting a superior .501 xwoBACON on the strength of his exit velocity, including a 98 MPH FB/LD exit velo that is tied for 11th. Power has never been a question and playing in Coors is a plus. Consistent contact, that's another story. With a 29.1% K% and below-average Zone Contact% as usual, McMahon needs to hit it hard when he actually does hit it.

So far, he's done just that and is lining the ball with authority rather than selling out for power. The Rockies' offense has been better than expected without Trevor Story, so it's possible McMahon produces solid numbers across his prime-age season with 25 HR and 80 RBI in play.

Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks

92.7 MPH avg. exit velocity

Walker is in the 90th percentile for exit velocity and barrel rate. If only more of those scorched baseballs would fall in for base hits... Walker has five homers on the year but is batting .152 and has driven in just eight runs.

There should be some positive regression as his xBA on fastballs is .287 compared to a .188 BA but he's been incapable of hitting breaking balls, posting a .091 BA and .132 xBA. Walker has never been one to hit for average so he'd need to continue leaving the yard at a high rate to offset the loss in that category and lack of R+RBI from being in the Diamondbacks lineup. His launch angle and fly ball rate make it look like he's making a concerted effort to go deep but this could ultimately be a shallow fantasy asset.

Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates

92.5 MPH avg. exit velocity

I felt compelled to add Hayes for two reasons. First, many are skeptical about his bat still because he wasn't much of a hitter in the minors, particularly in the power department. Second, his batted-ball profile is quite unique and worth examining.

He's in the top 20 in average exit velocity and has a solid 45.5% Hard Hit rate that's top 50. The problem is that he hits the ball on the ground 52.7% of the time, which is actually down from last year. A launch angle of 2.4 isn't encouraging for someone who's never hit more than 10 HR in a season at any level.

Where Hayes excels, which is also what keeps him fantasy relevant, is in hitting line drives. He's the owner of a 30.9% LD% and that jives with his rookie season's 30.8% LD%. We know that plentiful line drives lead to base hits, as there's a near 70% correlation with batting average. It's not a sticky stat from year-to-year but Hayes has shown he isn't trying to lift the ball out of the park. That means we should see much of the same from Hayes, which is to say little-to-no power but a high average.

Average Exit Velocity Strugglers

Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers

84.4 MPH avg. exit velocity

Anyone who rosters Semien anywhere already knows how real the struggle is. Whether it's just a slow start, adjusting to a new team, or the pressure of a huge contract, Semien hasn't gotten anything going at the plate.

The man who hit 45 homers last year hasn't gone deep once yet. While batting average has never been his strong suit, a .149 clip is completely out of character for one of fantasy's best players in 2021.

Surprisingly, plate discipline isn't the issue here. Semien is actually striking out less (19.4%) than he did last year (20.2%). Much of his batted-ball profile remains the same. It looks like he's just not hitting fastballs at all, which make up 55% of pitches seen. He had never previously hit below .247 on fastballs but this year, he's at .116 so far.

There is no tangible reason for Semien to have such a hard time with something so fundamental that has never been problematic before. It leads one to believe it is simply a focusing issue or something related to the aforementioned pressure of performing up to a higher standard. He should come around eventually but one can't be blamed for benching him until that happens.

Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

85.9 MPH avg. exit velocity

So much for the new Votto. His blazing second half of 2021 came as a result of a more aggressive approach at the plate, swinging early and more often. He was lifting the ball more, pulling it more, and hitting it harder. That was last year.

In 2022, Votto is posting career-highs in all the worst ways: a 48.9% ground ball rate, 4.4% Weak%, and 32.2% K%. Granted, it's only been 90 plate appearances but it still troublesome for a 38-year-old who may be demotivated from his team's selling spree before the season. A lack of lineup support isn't doing him any favors either.

We know Votto's ability and can always cling to the hope that history repeats itself with a late-season outburst. There are reasons to be legitimately concerned, however, so don't assume Votto is a steal by going out to "buy low" for him everywhere.

Frank Schwindel, Chicago Cubs

86 MPH avg. exit velocity

You'll see Schwindel on the trade block in many leagues these days, which I can attest to personally. I didn't draft him anywhere outside of an NFBC 50 but I've been offered him in a couple of leagues where managers seem ready to give up on him after a slow start. If it carries on, he'll be dropped everywhere before long as Alfonso Rivas eats into his playing time.

Schwindel was a great story last season as the career minor-leaguer came up at the age of 29 to take over for Anthony Rizzo at first base after the trade deadline and post a .342/.389/.613 slash line in 222 at-bats. Was it a fluke? Sadly, it might have been.

Interestingly enough, Schwindel's exit velocity is about the same as last year. He wasn't hitting the ball with too much authority but made enough quality contact to get by and overachieved on many expected stats. It's the other side of the coin now, as he's underperforming a bit but playing closer to his ability level. If he can lower his ground ball rate that hovers around 50%, we could see some improvements. It won't be enough to bring back the Schwindel of late last year, though.

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