Pitcher Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds - Exit Velocity Changes For Week 4

Connelly examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, whose exit velocity changes in 2022 could make them adds, drops or trade targets for Week 4.

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. Statcast has a cool year-to-year change feature for a host of metrics, and this week I will take a look at it for average exit velocity (EV).

EV is a more telling stat for hitters, as they have a greater influence on the measure than pitchers. That being said, pitchers typically try to avoid hard contact, as weak contact decreases the chances of allowing damaging outcomes. EV in combination with several other metrics can provide pretty compelling insights for pitchers. Further, early changes in the metric from 2021 to 2022 can be helpful in assessing potential buy-low and sell-high pitching candidates.

This week, I will be taking a look at pitchers who are literal studs and duds compared to their average EV from last season to this season. Hopefully, this will help identify some pitchers who may be on the rise or in line for a decline. It's never too early to start targeting fantasy trade candidates and giving yourself an edge for the season.

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Exit Velocity Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 1, 2022.

Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox
2-1, 3.27 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, -6 MPH EV Change

Dylan Cease has been an intriguing fantasy pitcher for some time now and has made improvements each season. He is off to a great start this season, compiling a 3.27 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 30.4% strikeout rate over his first four starts. Further, his 83.2-MPH average EV is in the 97th percentile of baseball and is six MPH less than his mark of 89.2 in 2021. These changes could propel Cease into another tier from a fantasy perspective if they can stick; should fantasy managers expect them to?

Cease's main pitch mix of four-seam fastball, slider, and curveball really played up last season and has continued this season. He gets a great spin on all of his pitches and has above-average velocity on his fastball at 96.1 MPH. His pitch movement and his more-distributed pitch mix compared to last season (he has thrown his slider as much as his fastball this season) may be keeping hitters more off-balance, leading to a decreased EV. He has also located his pitches better; he has kept his fastball in the top of the zone, mixed his slider in both the top of the zone and in the bottom corner away from right-handed hitters, and kept his curveball in the bottom of the zone. This may also be contributing to the lack of hard contact.

On the other hand, there are some signs that this level of excellence may be an overachievement. First, as good as it is, Cease's fastball has actually had less velocity (96.1 MPH vs. 96.7 MPH) and less spin (2,414 RPM vs. 2,543 RPM) than it did in 2021, yet his batting average against the pitch to this point is a minuscule .097 vs. .264 in 2021. He has located the pitch better, but it simply seems unreasonable that that batting average against will hold. More generally, an average EV of 83.2 MPH is much lower than his career value of 88.6 MPH. There is no reason to think that Cease will experience regression all the way to that value, but it would not be surprising to see some regression, especially given how hard he throws.

Overall, Cease has appeared to have made a big step forward across the board in 2022 compared to 2021, and his EV difference is a prime example. Signs point to his improvements being legitimate, although perhaps not to the degree fantasy managers can reasonably expect. Regardless, Cease seems like he will be a solid fantasy option this season, even if he does experience a little bit of regression.

Zach Eflin, Philadelphia Phillies
1-1, 3.20 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, -4.1 MPH EV Change

Zach Eflin has always been fantasy relevant, either as a streamer or a back-of-the-rotation fantasy option. He has gotten off to a better start than that this season, posting a 3.20 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an 18.8% strikeout rate through his first four starts. Part of his success could be attributed to his avoidance of hard contact, as his 83.8-MPH average EV is 4.1 MPH down from his 2021 mark of 87.9 MPH. Should fantasy managers be more excited about Eflin than they have been in the past?  

There isn't much that stands out under the hood when looking at Eflin's 2022 performance compared to 2021. He has six pitches in his arsenal and has used them all a similar amount compared to 2021. There aren't any major differences in his pitches' velocities and spin rates. As there isn't much to explain the dip in EV, it would be reasonable to assume some regression back to Eflin's career 87.9-MPH mark, but there isn't a ton to conclude at this time.

However, there are some good signs related to Eflin's lower strikeout rate. His 10.7% swinging-strike rate is actually up from his 10.2% value in 2021 and is a career-high. His 13.8% called-strike rate is way down from 18% in 2021, but his 5% walk rate is still good. All of this points to the potential for some regression in both called-strike rate and strikeout rate, which is encouraging for fantasy managers.

Eflin is not one of fantasy's more exciting pitchers, but that doesn't mean he can't be a contributor. There isn't anything specifically that points to his decrease in EV, but that doesn't mean that it can't continue. Further, there are definitely signs of more strikeouts to come, which, combined with the weak contact, could make Eflin a fantasy contributor for the entire season.

Exit Velocity Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 1, 2022.

Eduardo Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
0-1, 5.03 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6 MPH EV Change

Eduardo Rodriguez was a guy a lot of fantasy managers were targeting as a bounce-back candidate for the 2022 season, given how his surface metrics misaligned with his underlying metrics. Unfortunately, that re-alignment has not happened yet, as E. Rod has a 5.03 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 21.4% strikeout rate through his first four starts with his new team. To make matters worse, his 92.5-MPH average EV is a career-high and is much higher than his 86.5-MPH value in 2021, which was in the top-10 percent of baseball. Plenty of fantasy managers (myself included) are wondering what to do or expect from him over the next couple of months. What can his underlying numbers tell us?

The main issue appears to be Rodriguez's location on all of his fastballs. He throws a four-seamer (43.7% usage), cutter (18% usage), and sinker (13.8% usage), and all of those pitches have been left in the middle of the zone too often. His poor pitch location has likely led to his high EV as well as a career-high 19.1-degree launch angle. His poor pitch location may also be affecting his strikeout rate, which has been the lowest since his rookie season. The one good thing is that his 4.21 SIERA still suggests he may be getting a bit lucky, and his poor start is so different from his career numbers that it may be fair to hope for some positive regression.

This is definitely not the start Rodriguez, the Tigers, or fantasy managers had hoped for. Nothing seems to be clicking, which, while discouraging, could simply be chalked up to a slow start. I am not ready to give up on E. Rod this early in the season, although I may start sitting him in tough matchups. Hopefully, he can get things going and start performing more in line with his underlying numbers from the past couple of seasons.

Jose Berrios, Toronto Blue Jays
2-0, 4.13 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 4.7 MPH EV Change

Jose Berrios is another pitcher who has not delivered on expectations in the early part of the season. The 27-year-old has gone 2-0 with a 4.13 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, and 17.9% strikeout rate in his first five starts. His EV has also skyrocketed from 2021, jumping from 88.4 MPH to 93.1 MPH. How concerned should fantasy managers be at this point?

The main culprit has been Berrios' fastballs, both his four-seamer and sinker. His curveball, which he does throw 31.8% of the time, has gotten great results as always. However, his four-seamer and sinker have yielded .390 and .394 batting averages, respectively, with average EVs of 93 MPH and 95.1 MPH. He has left the four-seamer in the middle of the plate and has not kept the sinker down in the zone, so it is not surprising that those pitches have returned poor results.

Data from baseballsavant.mlb.com

The analysis for Berrios is more straightforward than the previous guys mentioned in this article; his fastball locations have been bad, and he has paid for it. Berrios does have a good track record as an above-average pitcher who returns fantasy value, so I am not all that concerned. Hopefully, he can settle in and start performing as fantasy managers would expect over the month of May.

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