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When to select a starting pitcher can sometimes be the hardest part in fantasy baseball. However, getting at least one elite starter is almost key. Spencer Strider is the most valuable starting pitcher in fantasy drafts this year and should be the clear No. 1 pitcher off the board.
Strider is currently the only pitcher going in the first round with an ADP of 8.9. After that, Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, and Kevin Gausman are the next pitchers to get selected. Cole is selected at the start of Round 2, while Burnes, Wheeler, and Gausman fall somewhere between the late second or early third round.
All five starters above are priced appropriately in drafts in 2024. However, some pitchers going after them aren't. So, let's dive in and see which starting pitchers are overvalued and undervalued in fantasy this season.
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Blake Snell, San Francisco Giants
Snell is coming off his second Cy Young win after finishing with a 2.25 ERA and 234 strikeouts across 32 starts in 2023. He joins just a handful of pitchers to win a Cy Young in both the American League and National League.
However, there are reasons to believe that Snell's 2023 numbers will come back down to earth this year. For starters, it has always taken the southpaw a while to get in a groove to start the season. Through 10 starts in 2022, he had a 5.22 ERA. Through 10 starts in 2023, the left-hander had a 5.04 ERA. Even if Snell signs today, his ramp-up to game speed will already be behind.
Juan Soto says his former Padres teammate Blake Snell would be a "great fit" for the Yankees 👀
(via @nypost) pic.twitter.com/I00aMTwJq0
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) February 27, 2024
Snell also got extremely lucky in 2023 in terms of his ERA. The southpaw ended with a 2.25 ERA, but his expected ERA finished at 3.77. The walks also remain a big issue, as he walked a career-high 99 batters last year. Having a current ADP of 61.4 is too high for a pitcher who should have some regression coming in 2024.
Verdict: Overvalued
Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres
There's not a lot going right for Dylan Cease heading into the 2024 season. He is coming off a significant down year where his numbers across the board weren't great. Cease finished with a 4.58 ERA and 214 strikeouts across 33 starts. The right-hander also finished in the bottom half of the league in average exit velocity (90 mph) and walk rate (10.1%).
However, he is just two years removed from finishing as the American League Cy Young runner-up. That's why his ADP of 95.4 seems too low.
The 28-year-old pitcher did not have the year anyone envisioned in 2023, but he's too talented to pass on in the ninth or 10th round. He has a much higher upside than most other pitchers going around him. Cease also get traded to the Padres this offseason, which could help his value. Either way, though, he'll continue to have high strikeout numbers and has a chance to finish as a top-10 fantasy pitcher again.
Verdict: Undervalued
Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles
The future is definitely bright for Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez. The former top pitching prospect certainly showed flashes of his potential in 2023, which included him ending the regular season with a 2.06 ERA over his final eight starts.
With an ADP of 71.8, many fantasy managers are likely expecting Rodriguez to break out in 2024. However, that 71.8 ADP seems too high for a pitcher who endured plenty of struggles in his rookie season. The 24-year-old finished with a 4.35 ERA and 129 strikeouts across 122 innings pitched.
#Orioles’ Grayson Rodriguez on the HR he gave up: “I’d like to think that doesn’t happen in Camden. But it’s a good thing none of these count.”
It likely would not have been a HR at Camden Yards, which has a much deeper LF wall. It’s also a very windy day in Sarasota.
— Jake Rill (@JakeDRill) February 27, 2024
His final numbers weren't entirely poor, thanks to a late-season surge, but there's a lot that the young pitcher has to work on before the 2024 season. Opposing hitters were hitting him hard last year with an average exit velocity of 89.8 mph and a hard-hit rate of 43.7%. So, if Rodriguez could limit that this year, he should be a solid fantasy weapon. His game, though, is just too much of a question mark right now for him to be going in the sixth or seventh round.
Verdict: Overvalued
Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals
There isn't much data to go off of in regards to Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Cole Ragans. Ragans started the year as a relief pitcher with the Texas Rangers where he had a 5.92 ERA through 17 appearances. Then, he was traded to the Royals in the Aroldis Chapman deal, and Ragans was a brand-new pitcher.
In 12 starts in Kansas City, he had a 2.64 ERA with 89 strikeouts across 71.2 IP. In those 12 starts, the left-hander had seven quality starts and five games with at least eight strikeouts. It's a small sample size, but there's a strong possibility that Ragans can continue that strong play in 2024.
Ragan's expected batting average against (.212), average exit velocity (87.8 mph), whiff rate (30.9%), and strikeout rate (28.8%) all ranked in the top half of the league last year. In his first spring training outing this season, the southpaw also tossed two scoreless innings with three hits and five strikeouts.
3 more Ks for Cole Ragans.
5Ks thru 2. pic.twitter.com/e3sQLMySTT
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 25, 2024
Ragans is much less of a risk at his current ADP of 101.8, and he has a chance to contribute at a high level for fantasy managers in 2024. The left-hander will also have relief pitcher eligibility this season. So, having him in the relief pitcher spot could be a cheat code in points leagues.
Verdict: Undervalued
Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins
There's a lot to like about Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober, especially after a strong 2023 campaign. He finished with a 3.50 ERA, a 1.067 WHIP, 146 strikeouts, and 29 walks across 26 starts. Ober continues to pitch well when given opportunities in the majors, and that shouldn't change in 2024.
The right-hander has a career 3.63 ERA with a 1.107 WHIP in three seasons in the majors. Ober's strikeout numbers aren't over the top, as he ranked middle of the pack last season, but his low walk rate and ERA make him an intriguing option in roto leagues.
The metrics also back up Ober's strong 2023 numbers. Last year, his expected ERA (3.63), expected batting average against (.226), chase rate (33.5%), and walk rate (5%) all ranked in the top half of the league. The 6-foot-9 pitcher is currently going outside the top 150 in drafts this season, which seems like a bargain.
Verdict: Undervalued
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