RADIO
Michael Florio's fantasy football sneaky starts, pivot plays, and post-waiver waiver pickups for Week 12 of 2024. Start 'em as under-the-radar fantasy sleepers.
Three weeks is all we have left of the regular season. It’s the point of the season where every matchup is critical for those teams fighting for their playoff lives. To make it extra difficult, there are six teams on bye this week.
If you are one of those managers fighting for a playoff spot, it is time to change your thinking. Everything becomes about winning at least two of those. Winning the week is now more important than stashing depth down the road, and if you have to trade a player on bye that you really like, so be it.
Surviving byemageddon could be the difference between you making the playoffs or not. Luckily, there are a lot of good streaming options this week. You must be aggressive going after them and building the best lineup as possible for this week. That is your goal moving forward now. Win the week.
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Sneaky Starts and Pivot Options
If you need a QB…
Justin Herbert is not on waivers, but you can elevate him from your bench. He has averaged 21.9 fantasy PPG in his last four games with multiple passing touchdowns in three. He has been running more as of late as well. He has the potential to have his best game yet this week against Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed the third-most fantasy PPG to QBs, as well as the most passing yards and second-most touchdowns this season. Plus, their offense is elite so this could be a shootout and force Herbert to throw more than usual.
Bo Nix has averaged 21.5 fantasy PPG since Week 5. That is top 5 fantasy QB production. He has one game with fewer than 16 in that stretch showing he brings a safe floor. I am not sure why he continues to go under the radar. He can beat you with his legs and his arm. He has multiple passing TDs in five of his last seven games. He is a strong start this week.
Tua Tagovailoa scored a season-high 23.52 fantasy points with 288 passing yards and three touchdowns last week. That was his first three-touchdown game since he played the Patriots in Miami last year. Guess who he plays this week? The Patriots, in Miami. The Pats have allowed the eighth-most passing yards in the NFL and have given up some big fantasy days to QBs. He is a good bye week replacement.
Drake Maye has averaged 17.2 fantasy PPG in the five starts he didn’t leave early. He has run for over 20 yards in all but one game. He has a game with over 90 rushing yards so the upside is high. He also has a strong arm and has aired it out over 40 times twice in his last three games. There is upside in a game where he could be chasing points. While I do not love their matchups - Anthony Richardson and Jameis Winston are upside fliers if you need a bye-week replacement.
#Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel on #Patriots QB Drake Maye:
“I saw a true quarterback who has the ability to gain the confidence of his teammates and lead and orchestrate an offense. I saw a guy that can make plays in a multitude of ways… He’s a guy that can see down the field, can… pic.twitter.com/LW5Per3muV
— Carlos Talks Pats (@LosTalksPats) November 20, 2024
Tommy Devito is in play for those diving deeper or in need in a two-QB format this week. The Bucs have allowed the most fantasy PPG to opposing QBs. That includes the fourth-most passing yards, fifth-most passing touchdowns, sixth-most rushing yards, and third-most rushing TDs to QBs. He also could be forced to throw this week. He is an upside flier.
My boy is back so I had to dust off the track jacket and pinky ring - Flex or Fuhhget is back celebrating our favorite cutlet eating QB! 🤌🏻🤌🏻 pic.twitter.com/TzqzFXMNLo
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) November 20, 2024
If you need an RB…
Jaylen Warren has been seeing more work as of late. He has averaged 11 carries and three targets per game in his last four games, to go along with 70 scrimmage yards. He is more of a floor play, but weather could be a factor on Thursday night. That could mean even more running the ball. With six teams on bye, he is certainly in play.
The Raiders running backs are in play for the desperate this week. You have to monitor their health, as both Alexander Mattison and Zamir White did not practice on Wednesday. That would leave Ameer Abdullah as the lead back for the Raiders. We know he can be utilized in the passing game, which is big as the Broncos have allowed the fifth-most yards to RBs this season. He would be a nice pivot option if the other two sit. If they suit up, I would rank them Mattison, Abdullah then White.
Jaylen Wright has seen a slight uptick in usage as of late. The floor is very low, but this is purely an upside flier for those in need. The Patriots have allowed the third-most rushing yards and 10 touchdowns this season. With Raheem Mostert having just three carries in the last two games, we could see Wright take even more work. He is a boom-or-bust flier this week.
Gus Edwards, Jerome Ford, and Cam Akers are deeper running backs for those scouring the wire for a bye-week replacement. Edwards has a very tough matchup, but it also happens to be a revenge game. Starting him is hoping for a touchdown. Anything on top of that is gravy.
Ford has been more used in the passing game and with Nick Chubb struggling to get going, we could see him more utilized in a game that could be hampered by weather and force the teams to pass less.
Akers has double-digit touches in two straight games. The Bears are middle of the pack against the run, but this could be a closer scoring divisional battle. Chicago is tough against the pass, which could lead to them running more than usual. That has Akers in play for those diving a bit deeper this week.
If you need a WR…
Quentin Johnston has caught a touchdown and topped double-digit fantasy points in three straight games. He had eight targets last week and tied Ladd McConkey with a 32% first-read rate, per Fantasy Points Data. Of his targets last week, four were deep. That matters as the Ravens have allowed the third-most yards on deep passes. They’ve also allowed the most yards, touchdowns, and fantasy PPG to receivers this season. He is a high-upside streamer, regardless of what the haters say about him.
People wrote Quentin Johnston off way too early. Happy to see his success this season.
— Kevin (@Daboys_22) November 18, 2024
Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore are certainly in play with Jameis Winston. In three games with Winston, Jeudy has averaged 10 targets and 98 yards per game with one touchdown. Moore has averaged 9.7 targets and 59.7 yards per game, also with one touchdown. Jeudy has topped 12 in each game, while Moore has topped 16 in two of the three. Funny how good they look with a competent QB. Both are strong pivot options this week.
Rome Odunze had 10 targets last week in what was a step forward for the Bears passing attack. Now he gets the Vikings this week who have allowed the fifth-most passing yards and third-most fantasy PPG to WRs. The Bears could be chasing points in this one as well. The volume last week paired with the matchup has Odunze in play as a sleeper this week.
"I feel like we came out with a different sort of passion, a different sort of violence."
Despite losing against the Packers, the Bears put some good plays on film.
Rome Odunze, DJ Moore and Kevin Byard break down those plays in this week's film review.https://t.co/Du8nIMw5J5 pic.twitter.com/AGAcm2cxCF
— Nicholas Moreano (@NicholasMoreano) November 20, 2024
Christian Watson went for 150 yards last week. It was his best game since the final one of the 2022 season. It was a nice reminder of the upside that he brings. He is always boom-or-bust, but there is upside there and he has chemistry with Jordan Love. In a game that could have a lot of points, he is in play.
DeMario Douglas is a safe floor play. He has averaged seven targets and 10 fantasy points per game in his last three. The Patriots could be chasing points and forced to throw in this one. There are options with higher ceilings, but if you want a safe 10 points from a bye-week replacement, Douglas is the guy for you.
Jalen McMillan has flopped after many believed he would take over as the top Bucs receiver. With Mike Evans set to return, I actually think this could help McMillan. Not only will Evans take the bulk of defensive attention, but it could allow McMillan to play more in the slot, where he is better suited. He could take over the Chris Godwin role. The floor is low, but there is upside here.
If you need a TE…
Hunter Henry deserves more respect than the fantasy community has given him! Since Maye took over, Henry has a 26% first read share, sixth best among tight ends per Fantasy Points Data, and has averaged 11.2 fantasy PPG. That is a tight end you can start. Especially against Miami, who has allowed the fourth-most yards to tight ends since Week 7.
I hope everyone appreciates Hunter Henry.
A lot of inconsistency on this team, but Henry consistently shows up for Drake Maye in the passing game.
pic.twitter.com/Z6RrdrX14P— Pats Buzz (@PatsBuzz) November 19, 2024
Will Dissly is a fantastic bye-week replacement this week. Since Week 7 he has had a 22% first read rate, the eighth highest among tight ends, per Fantasy Points Data. He has averaged 6.6 targets, 48 yards, and 10.8 fantasy PPG. Now he gets the Ravens, who have allowed the second-most yards and ninth-most fantasy PPG to tight ends.
Jonnu Smith has topped 11 fantasy points three times in his last six games. He has topped 22 points twice, including last week when he went for 101 yards and two touchdowns. What I like even more than that is the consistent volume he has seen. He has six or more targets in five of his last six games. The Patriots are middle of the pack against tight ends, but the upside is high here.
Zach Ertz has seen at least seven targets in three of his last four games. He has topped double-digit fantasy points in four of his last six games. That is consistent volume and production. He gets the Cowboys now who have really struggled as of late. Given the QB he is tied to, he is in play.
Ja'Tavion Sanders has over eight fantasy points in four of his last five games. He has five or more targets in four of his last six. Now he gets the Chiefs who have allowed the most yards and fourth-most fantasy PPG to tight ends.
Theo Johnson has six targets in two straight games. He routinely plays at least 80 to 90% of the snaps. Now he gets the Bucs who have allowed the fourth-most yards and fifth-most fantasy PPG to tight ends. He is a deeper streaming option.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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