Shortstops Set to Break Out in 2020

March 20, 2020

Brian Entrekin examines shortstops who could break out in 2020 for fantasy baseball teams. These young SS may be undervalued draft targets and sleepers.

The shortstop position is so deep this season. Breakout targets will likely be late-round picks or maybe not even drafted in most leagues. Some players might even be better left on the watchlist of the waiver wire. In years past, we've seen the likes of Jorge Polanco, Tim Anderson, and Marcus Semien all break out as late-round picks or free-agent additions.

This year the favorite breakout SS in the industry is Bo Bichette. I am fully on board with this sentiment, but that's also too easy to write, so we will be going deeper into this article. In this article, we will look into Willy Adames, who appears ready to break out in his second full season with the Rays. Luis Urias was traded to the Brewers; if he heals up quickly, he can make a huge impact in Miller Park. Carter Kieboom looks to showcase his skills during his second stint with the Nats. Lastly, the battle in Oakland may allow Jorge Mateo to become a steal in drafts.

All four shortstops discussed are taken after pick 226 in the NFBC Draft Champions since March 1. They also rank as the 25th or lower shortstop over that span. If given the proper playing time, they could be of extreme value, considering that some of them bring significant upside. Let's take a look at some potential breakout shortstops for your 2020 fantasy baseball season.

Willy Adames, Tampa Bay Rays

Adames is coming off his first full season as the starting shortstop for the Tampa Bay Rays. The once-heralded prospect started to shine with a stat line of .254-20-69-52-4. The 20 home runs were a career high and also came with a career-high ISO of .164. Adames's improved power goes hand in hand with his improved quality of contact. His barrel rate increased by 1.8% to 8.4%, while his hard-hit rate also improved from 29.6% to 35.5%. Adames also lowered his GB rate from 52% to 47.4%. The drop in ground balls resulted in more fly balls and line drives, and he took advantage of that with a nice 22.4% HR/oFB. 

The biggest surprise last season was his drop in his batting average. Adames' .254 average last season was his lowest batting average since Rookie ball in 2013. The low average coincided with his lowest BABIP since 2013 as well. Usually, a high ground-ball rate leads to a higher BABIP, so the drop in ground-ball rate may correlate properly. On the flip side, the increased power and harder contact may start leading to more extra-base hits and better batting average if he finds some outfield gaps. 

Heading into the 2020 draft season, we can look for Adames to continue to improve at the plate. The HH and barrel rates should continue to rise. If the BABIP returns to normal, then the average will go up as well, which should lead to more counting stats. Prior to the last two seasons, Adames was also a double-digit stolen base threat in the minors. Adames brings a 20+ home run and 10+ steal-upside with a .270+ average. He is currently the 27th shortstop off the board at pick 285.

Luis Urias, Milwaukee Brewers

Urias had a monster offensive 2019 season in AAA, with a stat line of .315-19-62-50-7, but could not quite get it going with the Padres once called up. He was only able to hit .223 with four home runs over his 71 games with the big club. Urias was a highly touted prospect with the Padres, but he was dealt to the Brewers this past offseason. The switch to the Brewers could be huge for Urias finding his power stroke.

The shift from Petco Park to Miller Park is massive for all hitters. According to Max Freeze's Home Run Park Factor Plus (HRPF+), right field and center field are major upgrades for Urias. 

As we can see, the power of both fields is a large boost for Urias. Looking back at Alex Fast's article at PitcherList.com on park factors and barreled home runs, there is more to like with Urias in Milwaukee. 

Ok, I get it. You are all probably saying, "Bubba, we get it. We already knew Miller Park was better for power than Petco." Yes, we did, but there is a reason for this. Many will point to Urias's weak 4.4% barrel rate. It isn't a rate that screams power, but it was an improvement from his previous season. When combining his improved barrel rate with an improved 31.4% HH rate and 9.5-degree launch angle, power is sure to follow. Urias also improved his fly ball rate from 12.8% to 24.5%, but only a 7.7% HR/oFB rate. While he is increasing his fly balls, an increased barrel rate and the new ballpark could lead to more power.

Urias is currently being drafted around pick 346 in NFBC Draft Champions since March 1. That is an absolute steal for a former top prospect that has shown a solid average and some nice power in the minors. He is recovering from a hamate injury, and this late start to the season will help him get healthy for the start of the season. Urias owners will realize Urias was a draft-day steal once he beats out Orlando Arcia for the starting shortstop job.

Carter Kieboom, Washington Nationals

Kieboom had a brief cup of coffee with the Nationals in 2019, and to put it nicely, it did not go well. Over his 11 games (43 PA) with the Nationals, he only hit .128 with two home runs. It was very disappointing, but not the end of Kieboom. There have been prospects before that have not had great first appearances, looking at you, Mike Trout. Kieboom has nothing else to prove in the minors, so the time is now for him to shine with the Nats. His career minor league numbers are strong with a .292 average, .378 OBP, .185 ISO, 20% strikeout rate, and 11.6% walk rate. Kieboom had a solid average and was an OBP machine in the minors with some outlying stats that leave some serious excitement for the majors.

The numbers as a member of the Nats is a very small sample, only 11 games, but it shows the overall quality of contact was the same if not better than at Triple-A. The ground-ball and fly ball rates were very similar. Kieboom's hard-hit rate was through the roof, and he did not forcibly pull the ball. There is room for improvement and success for Kieboom this season with the Nats.

Kieboom will enter 2020 as the starting third baseman for the Nats. Roster Resource projects him to hit eighth, which is not ideal but also takes a lot of pressure off the youngster. Look at what Victor Robles was able to do for the Nats last season, usually batting seventh or eighth. He is also the 28th shortstop being drafted (304 overall) and will be gaining multi-positional eligibility (3B). Kieboom has major upside and is a huge value late in drafts.

Jorge Mateo, Oakland Athletics

Mateo is battling Franklin Barreto and Tony Kemp to make the A's roster. All three ballplayers are out of player options, so Mateo either makes the team or finds a new team. Mateo had a decent spring training before the cancellation, hitting .231 with a .375 OBP and four stolen bases. The average and lack of extra-base hits could have been better, but the OBP skills and speed are what people love about Mateo.

Mateo was knocking on the A's's door during the 2019 season hitting .289 with 19 home runs and 24 stolen bases in AAA. The power finally took the next step last season, while the speed has always been there. Mateo has averaged over 34 steals in each of the previous four seasons, including 52 steals in 2017. The power spike last season correlated nicely with an increased hard-hit rate of 36.1% and an increased pull rate of 34.5%.

Mateo is a very risky pick as he is competing with two other players for one or two roster spots, which is a negative aspect of drafting him. The positive is that if he doesn't make the A's roster, another team will pick him up, which should result in plenty of playing time. Mate is currently getting drafted around pick 413, which brings plenty of upside on draft day.

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