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RotoBaller's top PGA player props, best bets, and matchup picks for the 2026 Open Championship. Get commission-free odds and market edges with Novig golf picks.
The final major championship of 2026 has arrived, as the world's best head to Royal Birkdale for one of the most anticipated weeks on the golfing calendar. Long regarded as one of The Open's fairest yet most exacting venues, Birkdale is sure to ask questions of every club in a players bag.
This week's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig. There are lots of juicy numbers available!
As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your season-long, DFS, and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite PGA bets and props for the 2026 U.S. Open.
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What is Novig?
Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge you to use their services. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.
On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- there's no commission kept by the site.
Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, tournament matchups, player props, parlays, and futures!
Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.
Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.
How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.
If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.
Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
PGA Matchup Picks
All odds are from Novig and were accurate/available as of 7/8/2026. Odds are subject to change.
Scottie Scheffler (-135 at Novig) OVER Rory McIlroy
I mentioned in my Open Championship Power Rankings that I would take Scottie Scheffler head-to-head over anyone in this field, and as this number continues to drift closer toward even money, I'm happy to put that opinion into action. While Scheffler is coming off his first missed cut in 79 starts, one disappointing week does little to change the fact that he has still been the best player in the world throughout 2026.
In fact, Scheffler continues to hold a measurable edge over Rory McIlroy in virtually every meaningful performance category. He owns a per-round Strokes Gained: Total advantage of more than four-tenths of a stroke this season while also grading out as the superior approach player, scrambler, and even putter across their last 50 rounds. Birkdale should only amplify that advantage. While McIlroy's length is always an asset, Scheffler's combination of elite driving accuracy and precision iron play feels better suited to a venue where penal fairway bunkers and towering dunes place a premium on positioning over sheer power.
McIlroy's links pedigree will deservedly draw plenty of attention this week, but Scheffler's record in these conditions has quietly been just as impressive. Over the last four seasons, no player in this field has consistently performed better in the wind, and despite making just five Open Championship starts, Scheffler has yet to finish worse than 23rd. McIlroy, meanwhile, has mixed in two missed cuts and a T46 since 2019, illustrating just how volatile this championship can be, even for the game's greatest links players.
I still make Scheffler north of a -150 favorite in this matchup. As long as the market continues to price this closer to a coin flip, I'm comfortable backing the world's best player against anyone standing across from him.
Patrick Cantlay (-130 at Novig) OVER Jordan Spieth
Jordan Spieth's résumé at The Open Championship speaks for itself. He's the defending champion at Royal Birkdale and remarkably hasn't missed a cut in this championship since 2013. Even with that pedigree, however, I don't see a compelling case for pricing him anywhere near Patrick Cantlay given the form each player brings into this week.
Spieth has failed to finish better than 56th since the CJ Cup in May, a stretch that even included a disappointing T58 at the John Deere Classic — one of the few venues on the schedule where he's historically enjoyed consistent success. Cantlay, meanwhile, continues to thrive against the strongest competition in the game, recording top-20 finishes in each of his last four Signature Events while ranking 11th in this field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the 2026 season.
The underlying numbers only widen the gap. Cantlay owns the edge in virtually every major Strokes Gained category despite playing almost exclusively against Signature Event and major championship fields, while Spieth doesn't rank inside the top 50 in this field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Approach, Around-the-Green, or Putting. I believe this number is leaning too heavily on Spieth's historic success on British links, but Cantlay has quietly built an impressive Open résumé of his own with three top-25 finishes in a much shorter championship career.
It's rare to find DataGolf's 16th-ranked player matched up against its 62nd-ranked player at a price this short. I make Cantlay a clear favorite in this matchup, and laying -130 still leaves plenty of value on one of the steadiest performers in elite fields.
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PGA Finishing Position Props
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7/8/2026. Odds are subject to change.
Collin Morikawa WINNER (+3233 at Novig)
It's been a turbulent road for Collin Morikawa in the five years since he lifted the Claret Jug at Royal St. George's, but his performance at the Travelers Championship looked like the clearest sign yet that his trademark ball-striking has returned. Despite battling recurring back issues throughout much of the spring and early summer, Morikawa gained a staggering 10.52 strokes between the driver and irons at TPC River Highlands, leading the field by more than three shots. Even more encouraging was his 89.3% driving accuracy rate -- the highest single-tournament mark of his seven-year PGA TOUR career.
That precision should translate beautifully to Royal Birkdale, where narrow landing areas, penal bunkering, and towering dunes place an enormous premium on keeping the ball in position. Just as encouraging, however, has been Morikawa's recent work on the greens. Long viewed as the one club capable of holding him back in major championships, the putter has quietly become a legitimate asset, with Morikawa ranking inside the top 20 in this field in Strokes Gained: Putting over his last 36 rounds while gaining strokes in seven of his last nine starts. A healthy Morikawa pairing that sustained putting baseline with one of the highest ball-striking ceilings in professional golf is among the most dangerous combinations in this field.
Five years removed from lifting the Claret Jug as a fresh-faced 24-year-old, Morikawa looks primed to remind the golfing world exactly where he belongs. Priced across the industry above 30-1, he represents one of the clearest values on the outright odds board.
