RADIO
Hello and welcome back to Horse For The Course! Kevin Na scored an emotional win at A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier last week. It was Na's second career win and first in almost eight years. Those of you that haven't had a chance to see his post-round interview with CBS should track it down, it is a great reminder of how much these guys want to win. Anyway, on to this week and the John Deere Classic. My theme for this week is "There Will Be Birdies"! We've got some great course history to examine this week. We have seen several players repeatedly do well at TPC Deere Run and that's when this column accomplishes what its meant to do...give you a leg up on the DFS competition. I am even throwing in an extra Pony this week. Let's get on our tractors and get into it!
Horse For The Course will take a look at players that have traditionally flourished at the course that hosts this week’s PGA TOUR event. This is not a traditional picks column, but rather an attempt to pinpoint players that have outstanding results at a specific course. "The Horse" is a player with an elite course history and that has a great chance to repeat his success in this week's tournament. "The Ponies" are players with very good course history, that might be entering this week's tournament under the radar or have a DFS price that is a great value.
For a full review of the DraftKings PGA Slate this weekend, check out Seth Finklestein's column reviewing picks at every price point.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
The Course: TPC Deere Run - Par 71 - 7,268 Yards
There will be birdies! Over the past few weeks we have seen several "player friendly" courses, but TPC Deere Run might be the king of them all. The D.A. Weibring designed layout ranks as one of the easiest tracks on the PGA Tour year-in and year-out. We traditionally see a winning score in the area of 20-under. Players will need to take advantage of the three Par-5's and the manageable Par-4's. Length off the tee isn't a huge advantage at TPC Deere Run. However, finding fairways and greens will be of the utmost importance. Approach shots play a huge factor and a hot putter is a necessity. Birdies will be required to win this week.
The Horse
Zach Johnson (DraftKings - $11,200 & FanDuel - $11,700 )
This week's Horse is two-time major champion Zach Johnson. The guy is so synonymous with this tournament that he literally sits on the board of the John Deere Classic. The 2012 John Deere champion, Johnson has an unbelievable seven Top-5's in his last nine appearances, including three runner-up finishes. Over his last 42 rounds in the John Deere, Johnson has shot even-par or better in 41 of them.
Though he has dominated at TPC Deere Run over the years, Johnson is far from a one-trick pony. He has played well in 2018. The veteran hasn't been able to win a tournament this year, but has found himself in the mix several times. Johnson is mostly thought of as a grinder, but he has the ability to go low. He recently fired a first-round 63 at the Travelers Championship on the way to a T19 finish. He ranks 17th in Strokes Gained: Approach and an impressive 2nd in Proximity to the Hole.
Similar to Russell Henley last week, we are forced to pay a "course history premium" for Zach at the John Deere. He carries steep price tags on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Over the past few PGA events we have been wrestling with paying much higher DFS prices for players we target in fields that are thin. I'm firing away on Zach Johnson this week, despite the high price tags. He should be a cash game staple and will still be GPP-worthy. I do expect high ownership, but I'm willing to roll with the chalk in exchange for the unbelievable consistency that Johnson offers at TPC Deere Run.
The Ponies
Bryson DeChambeau (DK - $11,400 & FD - $12,100 )
This week's first Pony is one of the hottest players in the world right now. Bryson DeChambeau has made quite an impression on the PGA Tour over the past year and it can be traced back to the 2017 John Deere Classic. After entering the professional ranks with high expectations, DeChambeau was playing brutally bad last year and at one point missed eight consecutive cuts, before doing some soul searching and finding his swing in June. He was able to get back on track and secure his first career win at last year's John Deere Classic.
The win seems to have buoyed DeChambeau's belief in himself and his scientific approach to the game. He has been on a tear this season, logging a second place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a T3 at the RBC Heritage, and a fourth at the Wells Fargo Championship. His great play culminated with a second career win at the prominent Memorial tournament last month. "The Mad Scientist" brings excellent form with him to TPC Deere Run this week, he is 10th in Birdie Average and a scorching 15th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.
As I mentioned when discussing Zach Johnson, this week is almost eerily similar to last week in many ways. We saw Tony Finau with his highest DFS price tag ever at The Greenbrier and now we have Bryson DeChambeau listed at $11,400 on DraftKings, just a couple of hundred bucks behind Francesco Molinari. Unlike last week, I'm not surprised that DeChambeau is this expensive. He has played amazing golf over the last few months. When we combine his current form with his success at TPC Deere Run last year, he is a no-brainer. I will have him deployed heavily in cash and GPP lineups.
Steve Stricker (DK - $9,800 & FD - $11,500 )
Steve Stricker is the only player that can rival Zach Johnson for the title of "Mr. John Deere". Improbably, Stricker's track record at TPC Deere Run may be more impressive that Johnson's. Stricker is the last person on the PGA Tour to win a tournament three consecutive times, pulling off the feat in this tournament in 2009, 2010, and 2011. The veteran from Wisconsin will be making his 17th career appearance at TPC Deere Run.
Stricker is playing a mixed schedule this season, splitting his time between the PGA Champions Tour and the regular PGA Tour. Don't let that scare you away this week. "Strick" has played exceptionally well on both tours. Because of his limited playing time on the PGA Tour this year, Stricker doesn't have enough rounds to qualify in statistical categories, but we know what we are getting from him. Stricker will play the style of golf that has worked so well for him over the years...he will hit fairways and greens, and hopefully make a ton of putts.
Is anyone else noticing a theme this week? Stricker carries a stout $9,800 DK price tag. Is he worth it? My answer is that I have zero hesitation using him across the board. He is a terrific cash game anchor this week. His ownership will be high for GPP use, but I expect Stricker to be fighting for a Top-10 at the John Deere.
Wesley Bryan (DK - $9,100 & FD - $9,000)
Up is down, black is white...Wesley Bryan is $9,100 on DraftKings. We have reached that point of the season. I wanted to touch on Bryan because of his stellar history at TPC Deere Run. The trick-shot artist turned PGA Tour Pro has been exceptional in two John Deere appearances. Bryan logged a T3 last year and a T8 in 2016, with a round of 64 in both years. It is hard to ignore those type of results, no matter who the player is.
Bryan has struggled mightily at different points this season. He missed six of seven cuts during one particularly bad stretch. However, he seems to be rounding into form over the past month. He logged a T12, his best finish of the season, at the FedEx St. Jude Classic to kickoff the month of June. He made the cut and carded a couple of sub-70 rounds at the Travelers Championship. Last week at The Greenbrier, Bryan finished T26 while ranking fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting and 10th in Scrambling. I like where Bryan's short game is heading into the John Deere, a course where wedge-play and putting will be absolutely crucial.
Bryan is strictly a GPP-play this week. I do think his game is heading in the right direction and he is playing on a course that he's obviously very comfortable on, but I do have a difficult time swallowing the $9,100 DK price tag. He is not for the faint of heart, but he is the type of large-field GPP play that can win a tournament for you.
Johnson Wagner (DK - $7,900 & FD - $8,500)
Our Bonus Pony this week is Johnson Wagner. We had to find a player that offers a bit of salary cap relief and Wagner fits the bill. I can't believe I'm saying this, but Wagner has been downright dominant at TPC Deere Run since 2014. That year kicked off a stretch of three consecutive Top-10's for the former Virginia Tech Hokie. Wagner logged a T7 in 2014, followed by back-to-back T5's in 2015 and 2016. Unfortunately, Wagner's run ended in a missed cut last year, but a three-year stretch like he had can't be overlooked.
Wagner has been making cuts fairly consistently this year. He had a nice stretch back in the spring that saw him go T20-T13-T32 in consecutive weeks at the Valero, Wells Fargo, and Byron Nelson. He fired back-to-back 68's at The Greenbrier last week, but faded over the weekend. His lack of driving distance won't be a huge handicap this week and his short game numbers are encouraging, as he ranks 20th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 10th in Scrambling on the PGA Tour this season.
Wagner is a GPP-only play. I think he will fly under the radar this week and is a perfect flyer in large-field tournaments. He offers a much-needed salary break in a week that pricing is a bit out of control. Wagner is not without risk, but he does have sneaky Top-10 potential and is a great option for DFS players that enter multiple lineups.
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