RADIO
With only two teams on a bye this weekend, we are back to a relatively normal-sized slate of 11 games. Sadly, only three of those games have a total of more than 40.5 points. That means ownership is going to be concentrated in tournaments around the games with higher totals; Broncos/Chargers, Seahawks/49ers, and especially Chiefs/Bills. Our challenge is to find ways to creatively build lineups to get exposure to these games without eating too much chalk.
Looking for individual player matchups in the lower-totaled games is going to be key to making intelligent pivots off the most popular games. There’s always a game or two that defies expectations and turns into a surprisingly strong fantasy target, and that’s what makes slates like this interesting. Thankfully, there’s more than enough value on this slate to be able to pay up at a couple of positions, and more value will likely open up as the week progresses.
I’m super excited for Week 14, and my goal is to create a hierarchy of plays so you know who to prioritize when building your lineups! Remember that this article is written early in the week, so please make sure to check in with our Discord for any updates as practice reports come in throughout the week and a clearer picture starts to come into view. Also, be sure to check out all of our other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big!
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DraftKings NFL DFS Cash Rankings - Quarterbacks
1. Joe Flacco (Cleveland Browns - $4,700)
Sometimes we pick a player for cash games because of their play, but other times we pick someone for roster construction purposes. This week is the latter for sure. As it stands now, and remember that this was initially written on Tuesday night, I’m looking to go heavy at running back for my cash lineups with many players in prime positions to smash.
That means I have to save money somewhere other than just tight end and defense, and this week those savings are going to come at the third wide receiver and quarterback positions. I wouldn’t take just any cheap option at the position, they’d have to have some upside and be in the right spot to succeed.
Joe Flacco is exactly that this weekend. He looked capable last weekend in Los Angeles against a stout Rams defense. His passes were crisp, he had a strong connection with Elijah Moore, and he was throwing deep with ease. This weekend he’s at home, and he gets the benefit of playing against a Jaguars defense that has struggled against opposing passing games. They’ve allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for 280 or more yards in seven of 11 games this year, including a big game from Jake Browning on Monday night.
Flacco doesn’t have the elusiveness in the pocket that Browning does, but he’s got veteran savviness. At just $4,700, he only needs about 15 DraftKings points to hit value, and that’s a floor that he’s more than able to reach in this matchup.
2. Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers - $6,400)
3. Justin Fields (Chicago Bears - $6,800)
Others in consideration: Josh Allen, Jake Browning
Sunday update: There's more than enough value on this slate that we don't have to scrape the bottom of the barrel for our quarterback. It looks like the two most popular cash plays this weekend are going to be Justin Fields and Jake Browning. Both of them work for me, but at the moment I've got Fields in my personal lineup. He's played well since his return to the lineup, his legs give him a significantly higher floor than almost any other quarterback in the league, and the Lions are notorious for allowing massive rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. We just saw Fields run all over the Lions in Week 11, and a similar game of 24 DraftKings points would be a perfect return on his $6,800 price tag.
DraftKings NFL DFS GPP Rankings - Quarterbacks
1. Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills - $8,300)
Josh Allen is going to hurt to have to roster at $8,300, but he’s in the game with the highest total on the slate and that’s very appealing on such a weak slate. He’s going to be chalky, but Allen’s performances this year have justified that level of ownership. He’s the top scorer at the position and has only had four games with less than 20 DraftKings this year. He’s gone over 30 DraftKings points in three games, but more importantly, he throws enough to sustain multiple pass-catchers.
Stefon Diggs is the obvious stacking option, and then you can mix and match with Dalton Kincaid, Gabe Davis, or Khalil Shakir. Kansas City is an easy team to correlate with as your options for a bring-back player are Travis Kelce or Rashee Rice. Limiting your stacking options means it’s more likely that you’ll hit on the players you need to succeed. The key to using a Bills stack is finding lower-owned players at other positions to beat the ownership game.
2. Joshua Dobbs (Minnesota Vikings - $5,900)
3. Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers - $6,400)
Others in consideration: Patrick Mahomes, Jake Browning, Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, Gardner Minshew
Sunday update: Josh Allen may be popular this week, but his main pass catcher isn't. Stefon Diggs is projecting under 10% owned this weekend, and although it's an expensive pairing, stacking him and Allen together to get unique is a great way to take advantage of the highest totaled game of the slate. Outside of Allen, Brock Purdy is the quarterback I find myself getting to most for my tournaments. Seattle's passing defense leaves much to be desired and there are a plethora of weapons and bring back plays to get unique with a 49ers lineup. With so many games having low totals, I'm condensing my pool of stacks and varying it up with different mini-stacks and one-offs. This does not feel like the weekend to get too cute with your quarterback options in tournaments.
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DraftKings NFL DFS Cash Rankings - Running Backs
1. Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers - $9,200)
This is finally the week where I go all in on high-end running backs in cash games. Christian McCaffrey is never a bad option given his floor, but this is a particularly good spot for him. He recently ripped the Seahawks for more than 30 DraftKings points. He’s a home favorite that gets inside the five carries and catches a lot of passes. He’s scored a touchdown in all but one game this year. He’s scored 20 or more DraftKings points in all but two games this year. He’s had at least three catches in all but one game this year. He’s had 15 or more carries in all but two games this year.
Christian McCaffrey is the most sure thing at running back since the heyday of LaDanian Tomlinson. That is pretty much everything that we are looking for in a cash-game running back. Seattle has allowed 125 or more rushing yards in five of their last seven games, so this play is more than just “play CMC”; it’s a legitimately good matchup. Thankfully, there’s more than enough value on this slate to fit in McCaffrey without sacrificing too much of a floor at your other skill positions (running back and wide receiver).
A quarterback will probably win the NFL’s MVP Award. But this dude, Christian McCaffrey, actually deserves it. He makes the 49ers go. Not Purdy. https://t.co/9YB2WW5EJz
— Kenny BooYah! 🖖🏾 (@KwikWarren) December 6, 2023
2. Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints - $8,200)
3. Joe Mixon (Cincinnati Bengals - $6,100)
Others in consideration: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Zack Moss, Chuba Hubbard
Sunday update: Isiah Pacheco has been ruled out for the Chiefs and Andy Reid has already said that Edwards-Helaire will be the starter. At just $4,200 he's going to be wildly popular, and that's just fine with me for cash games. I don't know if he's "good" chalk or "bad" chalk, but at his expected ownership it doesn't matter. I'm locking in those savings and getting another high-end wide receiver. Any combination of CMC, Kamara, or Joe Mixon would work as a second (or third) running back along with CEH.
DraftKings NFL DFS GPP Rankings - Running Backs
1. Joe Mixon (Cincinnati Bengals - $6,100)
Joe Mixon has been low-key decent this year and he gets no hype. He’s had three or more targets and scored double-digit fantasy points in all but three games. That’s a level of consistency that’s surprising. More importantly for tournaments, Mixon has a high ceiling. He’s scored 20 or more DraftKings points in three of his last six games.
The Bengals relied on him heavily on Monday night with 26 opportunities. He rewarded that confidence with over 100 total yards and two touchdowns. This week, he gets a Colts defense that has been shredded on the ground. Indy has allowed over 125 rushing yards in six straight games, including over 100 yards and a pair of scores to Derrick Henry last weekend. Mixon is a good one-off player, or he can be part of a mini-stack with Michael Pittman Jr. in a game that has sneaky shootout potential.
2. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Kansas City Chiefs - $4,200)
3. Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams - $7,300)
Others in consideration: Christian McCaffrey, Zack Moss, Alvin Kamara, James Cook, Javonte Williams, Keaton Mitchell
DraftKings NFL DFS Cash Rankings - Wide Receivers
1. Michael Pittman Jr. (Indianapolis Colts - $7,300)
Michael Pittman Jr. is underpriced. He’s had 10 or more targets in all but four games this year, putting up 13.6 or more DraftKings points in 10 of 12 games. He has four times as many ceiling games (games of more than 20 fantasy points) than he does single-digit games. The kind of volume he gets and the consistency he has shown are that of a player who should be closer to the price we see for Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,500).
I will happily take the discount on him in a neutral matchup against the Bengals. That we can fit Pittman in a lineup with Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Joe Mixon without having to punt too much is too good to pass up. He may not have the ceiling of some of the receivers priced above him, but his floor is unmatched by any receiver on the slate.
Michael Pittman JR deserves to be talked about more. The best underrated WR, WHEN he shouldn’t be underrated! He’s been performing with 6 different Quarterbacks in his professional career! And a couple in college!! This man performs!! pic.twitter.com/CoUodjCbSM
— elijah🦆🐶 (@ThorfinnFPS) December 5, 2023
2. Rashee Rice (Kansas City Chiefs - $5,400)
3. Elijah Moore (Cleveland Browns - $4,500)
Others in consideration: Xavier Gipson, Parker Washington, Davante Adams, DJ Moore, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jonathan Mingo
Sunday update: With the savings I'm now finding at running back thanks to Edwards-Helaire, I'm jumping DJ Moore all the way to the top of these rankings. He's a bit cheaper than Michael Pittman, giving him the slight edge. In general it doesn't matter as I'm getting both of these volume hogs into my lineup. When Justin Fields is the starting quarterback for Chicago, Moore is averaging over 20 DraftKings points per game. Pittman has been great since Gardner Minshew took over at quarterback for the Colts, and even if he gets shadowed this weekend I think the Colts will move him around enough so he gets his ten or so targets. The third wide receiver spot will almost assuredly be a value option, and there are a number of viable plays in the $4,000 range. Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to see his role grow with Seattle, and the 49ers secondary isn't nearly as good as their front seven. Jonathan Mingo hasn't really produced yet this year, but his target volume has steadily increased to where he could be considered the top receiving option for the Panthers. At a near rock-bottom price point you've got Xavier Gipson, who has looked good in spots for the Jets and saw a season-high six targets in Week 13. Mingo is where the public seems to be heading for their value play, but JSN or Gipson should be fine as well.
DraftKings NFL DFS GPP Rankings - Wide Receivers
1. Rashee Rice (Kansas City Chiefs - $5,400)
Rashee Rice may be the forgotten man in Buffalo/Kansas City game stacks. It’s not unlikely that Stefon Diggs, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, Dalton Kincaid, and maybe even Khalil Shakir will end up being more popular for a variety of reasons. Rice has established himself as the top target for Patrick Mahomes, receiving 19 targets over the last two weeks. For the year, he’s had fewer than four targets only twice and has scored double-digit fantasy points in half of his games (including each of the last two weeks).
The only issue with Rice is that he isn’t on the field nearly as much as he should be, hovering around a 60% snap share. It speaks to his efficiency and talent that he’s produced as well as he has in so few snaps, but if he were to ever see 80% of the snaps, then it’s not unreasonable to think that he could have a tournament-winning type of game.
.@RiceRashee11's 16 catches over the last two weeks are tied for the third-most of any player in the NFL.
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) December 5, 2023
2. Ja'Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals- $7,600)
3. Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings - $8,500)
Others in consideration: Mike Evans, Michael Pittman Jr., Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Brandon Aiyuk, DK Metcalf, D.J. Moore, Zay Flowers, Parker Washington, Courtland Sutton, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Sunday update: If Stefon Diggs continues to project a lower than 10% ownership, he's a lock as a tournament option. He's got a tough matchup, but his game could turn into a shootout and you know Josh Allen is going to look for his most trusted pass catcher in a must-win game. In general, spending up at wide receiver is going to be unique this weekend with so many strong high-end running backs taking up chunks of salary cap. Clyde Edwards-Helaire makes it easier to spend up at the position, but if anything that will just add to the ownership numbers on Diggs and make Jefferson and Chase even better tournament plays. CEH's potential ownership also makes Rashee Rice a strong pivot with his high target share and increased trust from Patrick Mahomes. How you choose to play the Bills-Chiefs game is very likely going to decide how your tournament week turns out.
DraftKings NFL DFS Rankings - Tight Ends
1. Isaiah Likely (Baltimore Ravens - $3,500)
It’s likely that Isaiah will be the most widely owned player on the slate this weekend. He’s the starting tight end for the Ravens, who use the position frequently, and he’s only priced at $3,500. That’s a curious number to put him at and one that people are going to find very attractive. He doesn’t have a ton of upside, but his target floor is more than sufficient at that price for cash games.
In his first game replacing Mark Andrews, Likely saw six targets and turned them into four catches for 40 yards. Those eight points are on the low end of what we are looking for from Likely, but as a floor, it’ll do. He’s much more of a cash game play rather than a GPP option, but in a pinch, he can be used in tournaments as a pay-down guy.
2. Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills - $5,500)
3. Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs - $7,800)
Others in consideration: Taysom Hill, Tyler Conklin, Sam LaPorta, T.J. Hockenson
DraftKings NFL DFS Rankings - D/ST
1. Indianapolis Colts - $3,500
The Colts are a filthy defense for fantasy. They do the one thing we want more than anything, and that’s put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Indy has 21 sacks over the last four weeks, never recording less than four sacks in any of those games. Not surprisingly, they’ve forced at least two turnovers and scored double-digit fantasy points in each of those four games.
While it can be pointed out that they haven’t exactly run the gauntlet of high-powered offenses (Tampa, New England, Carolina, Tennessee), it’s not like the Bengals and Jake Browning are a top offense either. I’m not sure I can get this expensive in cash games, but the Colts are a great tournament option with the way they are playing right now.
2. Chicago Bears - $2,400
3. Kansas City Chiefs - $2,600
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