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The top main-slate daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on July 26, 2023. Kevin Hickey's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
With several games scattered throughout the day, we're left with an efficient five-game main slate on DraftKings and a six-game slate for FanDuel, which includes the Angels-Tigers showdown. Today's matchups feature a surprisingly uncertain pool of pitching options, opening up plenty of opportunities to get creative with your lineup builds. I'll point out the standout plays.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks on 7/26/2023 and the main slate locking at 7:05 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Spencer Strider, ATL vs. BOS ($12,700 DK, $11,200 FD)
This should come as no surprise to anybody, but Spencer Strider will be the slate's top pitching option. He sports a fantastic 3.03 xERA and 2.68 xFIP through 20 starts. That includes similarly impressive numbers, like a .202 xBA, .273 xwOBA, and .349 xSLG.
Most impressive is Strider's other-worldly 39.7% strikeout rate, consisting of a 35.4% chase rate and a 40.4% whiff rate. He isn't immune to surrendering some damage, though it hardly matters when Strider averages 9.5 strikeouts per start and has recorded at least 10 strikeouts in four of his past five outings.
The Red Sox aren't the league's scariest offense, but they certainly do present a challenge for Strider. Boston carries an above-average 105 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. That includes a solid .767 OPS and .331 wOBA. It's well within the range of outcomes for the Red Sox to put up a couple of runs against Strider. But again, that doesn't matter all that much with the floor his consistent strikeout numbers provide.
Strider's price tag will be tough to stomach and his matchup isn't ideal. But it's hard to get away from him on this small slate.
Lance Lynn, CHW vs. CHC ($7,700 DK, $9,400 FD)
Beyond Strider, the rest of the pitching on this slate looks pretty iffy. Enter Lance Lynn, a poster boy for volatility. I hesitate to even recommend Lynn. But given his price and the lack of reliable arms on this slate, he's worth a look.
Lynn boasts an awful 6.18 ERA through 20 starts. While I don't think he's very good at this point in his career, Lynn has not been as bad as the surface numbers suggest, as evidenced by his strong 3.95 xFIP. In truth, Lynn probably gives up some runs today. But he carries a 27.8% strikeout rate and matches up surprisingly well in this game.
The Cubs bring a middling offense, scoring 4.9 runs per game on the season. That includes an underwhelming 99 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, alongside a .725 OPS and 23.4% strikeout rate. The noteworthy part of Chicago's lineup is how most of the impact bats are right-handed hitters -- Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Patrick Wisdom, and Yan Gomes. The overwhelming majority of damage Lance Lynn has taken on this season has come against left-handed hitting, which the Cubs are largely without, excluding Cody Bellinger and a slumping Ian Happ.
If we can look past Lynn's ugly numbers, he's been a shockingly consistent fantasy producer. Lynn has managed at least 14.5 DK points in five of his past six outings, thanks to consistent strikeout numbers. This isn't meant to be a glowing recommendation, but pitching options are thin. Saving salary at SP2 will be important alongside Strider and expensive bats.
Also consider: Framber Valdez, Marcus Stroman, Jose Quintana
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Matt Olson – 1B, ATL vs. Brayan Bello ($6,400 DK, $4,200 FD)
As the National League home run leader, it doesn't take a lot of thought to establish Matt Olson as a great play. He's slashing .253/.360/.571 on the season, and his underlying metrics support the success. Olson carries a .561 xSLG, .380 xwOBA, 56.8% hard-hit rate, 18.5% barrel rate, and 94.7 mph average exit velocity.
Brayan Bello is not a bad pitcher, but he has a growing problem with the long ball. He's surrendered six home runs over his past three outings after giving up only seven during his first 13 starts combined. Overall, Bello carries a weak .413 xSLG and 41.6% hard-hit rate, suggesting he was probably due for negative regression. Left-handed hitters have been particularly successful against Bello, slugging .460 with a .354 wOBA.
Francisco Lindor – SS, NYM vs. Carlos Rodon ($4,800 DK, $3,400 FD)
It's been an up-and-down campaign for Francisco Lindor, but he remains a great producer. He carries a .466 xSLG, 45.2% hard-hit rate, .347 xwOBA, 91.6 mph average exit velocity, and 11.7% barrel rate. Lindor has been particularly successful against left-handed pitching, slugging .491 with a .264 ISO.
Carlos Rodon's track record is that of a fantastic pitcher, but it's been ugly since he came back from injury. Through three outings this season, Rodon sports a 5.78 xERA and 6.28 xFIP. That includes a .498 xSLG and 11.1% barrel rate. It may only be a matter of time before vintage Rodon surfaces. Until that time comes, he's a very hittable pitcher.
Wilmer Flores – 1B, SFG vs. Hogan Harris ($3,500 DK, $3,100 FD)
Wilmer Flores is on something of a hot streak right now, hitting safely in 13 of the past 14 games that he's started. That includes five home runs and seven multi-hit efforts in that span. Overall, Flores boasts an impressive .292/.355/.534 slash line with 13 home runs. He's slugging .544 with a .223 ISO against left-handed pitchers this season.
Hogan Harris hasn't been as bad as his surface 6.11 ERA suggests, but a 4.37 xERA and 5.10 xFIP don't give me a lot of confidence. He's surrendered a weak .419 xSLG, 43% hard-hit rate, 90.3 mph average exit velocity, and .324 xwOBA.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Cody Bellinger – OF, CHC vs. Lance Lynn ($4,600 DK, $3,900 FD)
If you're not rostering Lance Lynn, it's a pretty good idea to stack against him. In that event, Cody Bellinger is the preferred choice. He's hit safely in 23 of his last 26 games, recording seven home runs and 14 multi-hit efforts in that span. Overall, he boasts a .314/.363/.540 slash line with 14 home runs and 12 stolen bases this season.
I prefaced above that Lance Lynn has struggled against left-handed hitters. To be more specific, that translates to a .653 slugging percentage and 18 home runs so far this year. The Cubs don't have many impactful left-handed bats, but Bellinger looks fantastic in this spot.
Chas McCormick – OF, HOU vs. Andrew Heaney ($4,100 DK, $3,700 FD)
Chas McCormick is another hot batter right now, hitting safely in 10 of his last 12 games. That includes five home runs over his last 10 appearances. He boasts a strong .282/.369/.531 slash line with 13 home runs and 11 stolen bases. McCormick is particularly lethal against left-handed pitching, slugging .683 versus southpaws this season and .574 for his career.
Following a surprisingly dominant 2022 campaign, Andrew Heaney has regressed to his old ways. He's surrendered a .441 xSLG, 10.8% barrel rate, and 90.7 mph average exit velocity. Right-handed hitters are slugging .473 against him with 17 home runs and a .342 wOBA.
Ramon Laureano – OF, OAK vs. Alex Wood ($2,300 DK, $2,600 FD)
There are not a lot of dirt-cheap hitters to get excited about. If you need to fill out a roster spot at punt-level pricing today, then consider Ramon Laureano. He's slugging .458 against southpaws this season and .446 for his entire career with a 120 wRC+.
Alex Wood is having his worst season as an MLB player. He sports a 5.38 xERA and 5.41 xFIP through 15 appearances. That includes a .444 xSLG, .355 xwOBA, and 90.6 mph average exit velocity. Right-handed hitters have been especially troublesome for Wood, slugging .488 against him.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Houston Astros vs. Andrew Heaney
The Astros have been an underwhelming offense overall this season, but they look great today. Houston carries a solid 109 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Their bats have been surging lately, particularly Chas McCormick, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker. There's also an expectation that one or both of Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez will rejoin the lineup on Wednesday, potentially making this their first full-strength game in nearly two months.
Andrew Heaney looked like a rehabilitated pitcher in 2022, but he's since regressed back to normal. He's surrendered a .441 xSLG, 10.8% barrel rate, and 90.7 mph average exit velocity. Right-handed hitters are slugging .473 against him with 17 home runs and a .342 wOBA. Heaney hasn't made it through six innings in nine consecutive starts dating back to May 27. Texas owns a 4.77 bullpen ERA, the fourth-worst in baseball.
Favorite Plays: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Chas McCormick
Atlanta Braves vs. Brayan Bello
I just don't think you can go wrong rostering the Braves these days. They score an astonishing 5.6 runs per game on the season. Atlanta boasts a league-best .809 OPS against right-handed pitching, including a 115 wRC+ and .347 wOBA. They will be tough to full stack with their premium prices unless you fade Strider. In any event, it's a good idea to get to Matt Olson and Ronald Acuna Jr., even if only as a mini stack or one-off.
Brayan Bello has performed solidly in 2023, though he has a growing problem with the long ball. He's surrendered six home runs over his past three outings after giving up only seven during his first 13 starts combined. Overall, Bello carries a weak .413 xSLG and 41.6% hard-hit rate, suggesting he was probably due for negative regression. He isn't a terribly vulnerable pitcher, but it's a small slate and Bello is not good enough to deter me from rostering some Braves.
Favorite Plays: Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr., Sean Murphy, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies
Also Consider: New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants
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