2014 Outlook for Julian Edelman: Biggest 2013 Breakouts

This breakouts and busts series will run all through fantasy football draft prep season.  We'll be counting down from 10 for the top breakouts and busts from the 2013 fantasy football season.  We previously looked at Zach Stacy (8), Ryan Matthews (9), and Michael Floyd (10).

Biggest Fantasy Football Breakouts - #7

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are consistently one of the top teams in the NFL, and for good reason.  They boast the best quarterback-coach duo in the league, and the rest of their team is loaded with top talent year-in and year-out.  Unfortunately for 2013, various circumstances caused the roster to deplete.  Over the course of the year, they were without Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola.  Somehow, they still made it to the AFC Championship game, a testament to how well-run this organization really is.  One person to thank for their success is Julian Edelman.

Julian Edelman

Edelman, a graduate of the Wes Welker School for Small Slot Receivers, is listed at 5’10’’ 195.  While he is actually bigger than Welker, his skillset is somewhat similar.  He was actually a quarterback at Kent State, and many scouts predicted he would go undrafted as he lacked the physical tools to be one in the NFL.

However, the Patriots took a flyer on him in the 7th round in 2009 and then signed Brian Hoyer as an undrafted free agent, prompting analysts to believe he would be a punt returner and possible receiver.  Learning from some of the greats in Wes Welker, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, Edelman soon blossomed into a useful weapon.

The Stats

It didn’t take long for Edelman to stuff the stat sheet.  In the first game of the 2013 season, he logged two touchdowns against the Bills, and then hauled in 13 receptions on 19 targets against the Jets in the “Rain Game” on Monday night.  In total, he finished with 1056 yards on 105 catches and a whopping 151 targets.  He also scored six touchdowns.  He tallied 13 receptions twice and had four 100 yard games.  His most impressive game was an overtime thriller against Denver in which he hauled in nine passes for 110 yards and two touchdowns, including one that helped force overtime in the fourth quarter.

The Analysis

Edelman was simply outstanding last year.  Many people thought he wouldn’t even be a part of the offense with the inclusion of Danny Amendola and the emergence of Kenbrell Thompkins and Shane Vereen.  However, Brady showed complete trust in Edelman as early as the first game of the season.  When Amendola and Vereen went down, it was Julian Edelman who stepped up and became a top target for Brady.  Edelman has a decent amount of speed, and shows an incredibly quick burst at the line, as evidenced by an impressive shuttle time.  While his cuts aren’t as impressive as Welker’s, he can still use them to get open.  Edelman is a crisp route runner who can line up all over the field, using quick and precise movements to get open.  He even has a knack for getting open downfield every now and then.  It’s pretty clear that Edelman is perfectly capable of lining up as a major option in the Patriots passing attack next to Rob Gronkowski, as Brady shows an incredible amount of trust in him.

2014 Fantasy Football Outlook

If Julian Edelman stays on the Patriots, he is in for another big season.  New England will have to be healthier by default next year, as Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola should be fully ready for training camp.  Rob Gronkowski will also most likely be ready to play, although who knows for how long.  While the plethora of talent likely means a decrease in the amount of targets Edelman will receive, it won’t change his value.  The great thing about Tom Brady is that once he shows trust in you as a receiver, he will look for you time and time again, as evidenced by Wes Welker, Randy Moss and Shane Vereen.  Edelman will certainly see a ton of looks next year, and while it probably won’t be 150 like this year, we can still expect to see upward of 100.  Danny Amendola will likely eat into his receptions the most out of any player, but Amendola is a candidate to miss a few games as well.  A fair stat line for Edelman would be 85 receptions for 950 yards and 4 touchdowns.  He would be a great WR3 with decent upside.

It’s hard to love Edelman long-term.  While his short-term prospects are great, it’s fair to wonder if he’s a product of the system.  Wes Welker somewhat disproved that theory this year (albeit with Peyton Manning, a probable upgrade), so it’s hard to make the assumption that he is just a product of Brady.  Edelman is certainly talented, but a lot of his success truly does come from the complete trust Brady has in him.  Once Brady retires, or Edelman moves, Edelman could return to irrelevance.  While it’s likely he remains a decent start in the near future, it's not likely he'll still be producing at a high-level three to five years from now.