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Is Aaron Jones or Jordan Mason the RB1 for the Vikings? Should you draft Jones or Mason in 2025 fantasy football drafts? Dave's expert draft analysis and advice.
The Minnesota Vikings offense could look much different this year with second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy set to take over as the team's QB1. With a first-year starting quarterback, we can probably expect Minnesota to rely heavily on its running game to help out its young signal-caller.
Last year's RB1, Aaron Jones, re-signed with the team this offseason. Minnesota gave him a two-year, $20 million contract with $13 million guaranteed. However, the Vikings also acquired former San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason this offseason.
Minnesota has dropped hints that it plans to utilize both backs this year. So, which Minnesota running back is the preferred pick in 2025 fantasy football leagues? Let's take a few minutes and discuss.
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Aaron Jones 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
Jones enjoyed a fine first season with Minnesota in 2024. He ran for a career-high 1,138 rushing yards and caught an additional 51 receptions for 408 receiving yards. Jones also scored seven total touchdowns and finished the year as the overall PPR RB15.
Aaron Jones puts the finishing touches on this one.
📺: #ATLvsMIN on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/W1PR0o6MV3— NFL (@NFL) December 8, 2024
While Jones returned to RB2 fantasy production, there are some concerns for 2025. His yards per carry declined for the second straight year, and he posted a career low 4.46 yards per carry in 2024. That alone does not warrant full-blown panic, but it's noteworthy considering Jones is 30 years old and turns 31 during the season.
More importantly, some of his advanced metrics were troubling. Among 47 running backs with 90+ carries in 2024, Jones finished:
23rd in Next Gen Stats' rush yards over expected
24th in Next Gen Stats' rush yards over expected per attempt
21st in PFF rushing grade
34th in PFF elusive rating
36th in Fantasy Points Data Suite's explosive run rate
41st in Fantasy Points Data Suite's missed tackles forced per attempt
Based on some of his traditional and advanced stats, it looks like we can make the call that Jones is a player in decline. Minnesota seemingly did not agree, as it felt comfortable signing him to a new contract this offseason. However, the team has made it very clear that it intends to scale back Jones' workload in 2025. With him being on the other side of 30, this does make sense.
Perhaps Jones can remain fresh on fewer touches. It's plausible since he will not be leaned on as heavily this year, and that could lead to an efficiency spike.
While that would be the ideal, this scenario feels a bit unlikely for a 30-year-old running back. This age is traditionally a time when running back production declines and can completely nosedive at any moment. There are exceptions to the rule. Adrian Peterson, Curtis Martin, and Emmitt Smith are good examples. But based on Jones' 2024, there isn't much to suggest that he will be an outlier.
The one thing that we do know is that the Vikings are going to scale back Jones' touches. That is a big problem for a player whose production was largely driven by volume and a career-high 306 total touches. That makes Jones a fringe RB2 candidate who could quickly become a drop candidate if things go sideways this year.
Jordan Mason 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
Mason is coming off a career year in 2024. He filled in admirably for injured 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey and posted a 153-789-3 line in 12 games.
It’s your night Jordan Mason #FTTB
📺: #NYJvsSF on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/4IRdbxk2xE— NFL (@NFL) September 10, 2024
We discussed some concerning scores for Jones in various advanced metrics. Let's take a look at Mason's results in the same metrics from 2024. Among 47 running backs with at least 90+ attempts, Mason finished:
Sixth in Next Gen Stats' rush yards over expected
Third in Next Gen Stats' rush yards over expected per attempt
20th in PFF rushing grade
10th in PFF elusive rating
Second in Fantasy Points Data Suite's explosive run rate
Sixth in Fantasy Points Data Suite's missed tackles forced per attempt
One thing you'll notice is that Mason scored higher than Jones in every single one of the above metrics in 2024. His 5.16 yards per carry was also better than Jones' 4.46 mark. It now makes perfect sense why Minnesota went out and acquired Mason, as well as why it wants to reduce Jones' touches.
Mason is one of the more underrated backs in the league. His advanced data points to a potential star in the making. He's just been stuck behind arguably the best running back in football. When he was finally allowed to start, Mason showed fantasy managers exactly what he is capable of doing.
The Vikings certainly believe in his talent, and head coach Kevin O'Connell has previously stated that he views Jones and Mason as a 1A/1B type of pairing.
#Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell on his backfield:
“Aaron Jones is at his best when we can keep him fresh, we can keep him truly as that 1a, because we’ve got the 1b with him, and that was Jordan Mason.” pic.twitter.com/5nGWoeX3vb
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) April 1, 2025
There is a scenario where Mason outproduces Jones at the beginning of the year and eventually takes over the backfield by midseason. Short of an early season Jones injury (which is also possible given his age), this is probably the best-case scenario for Mason. When you take everything into account, it's easy to see why many analysts and gamers are so bullish on Mason's 2025 outlook.
Who Should You Draft in 2025 Fantasy Football?
If I'm being completely honest here, all of the above sounds great for Mason's outlook, and quite frankly, is highly concerning for Jones'. The reality is that older running backs are consistently chewed up and spit out in the NFL. The nature of the position favors youth and fresh legs. Mason is four years younger than Jones and does not have as much wear on his tires.
Jones' current Yahoo average draft position (ADP) of 73.2 overall has him going in the Rounds 6/7 turn. Mason's Yahoo ADP of 100.1 has him going in the middle of Round 8.
There is zero reason why these two players should have nearly a two-round gap in ADP. Mason is younger, has better efficiency numbers, better advanced metrics, is the more explosive rusher, and was hand-picked by the coaching staff this offseason.
Jones has been a household name for nearly a decade now. He has had a great career and certainly helped a few gamers win titles along the way. Time stops for no one, though, and Father Time always wins. Jones' 2024 stats look good to the naked eye, but upon closer inspection, he is a player in decline.
Yes, Minnesota gave Jones a new contract, but the team has since done the following:
-Very publicly state its desire to reduce Jones' role
-Trade for a younger, underrated running back
-Publicly praised Mason multiple times throughout the offseason.
Put it all together, and it doesn't seem too hard to predict how this one will go.
At the absolute least, it sounds like we can confidently say that Mason will carry standalone value this year. He is a great flex play with potential for more. Zero RB drafters could even get by selecting Mason as their RB2, as there's a real possibility he is Minnesota's RB1 by midseason. Mason is the preferred pick in all 2025 fantasy football drafts, regardless of format.
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