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We begin the final month of the regular season with plenty of teams still playing for the postseason, making it another exciting Friday night slate. I often tilt in favor of the hitter props in my weekly article, but I particularly like the matchup for a trio of arms tonight, including a pair of lefties on non-contending squads. When it comes to the hitters, I'm honing in on two from the top offenses in the AL.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, September 1, 2023. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Max Scherzer To Record A Win (+120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Max Scherzer has quickly taken to his return to the AL, posting a 3-1 record, 2.64 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, and 0.6 HR/9 in the 30.2 innings covering his first five starts with the Rangers. The fireballing right-hander's squad is up to a -155 favorite against the Twins as of early Friday as well. Scherzer just shut down Minnesota in his most recent start with a seven-inning, 10-strikeout gem on the road.
Texas prevailed in that game by a 6-2 score, and the Rangers are tied with the Orioles for second-most home wins (42) in the AL. Meanwhile, Minnesota is just 29-36 on the road and ranks in the bottom 10 in baseball with 4.15 runs per road game scored. In turn, the Rangers have scored an MLB-high 6.1 runs per home contest. Twins starter Joe Ryan has a 3-4 record, 5.01 ERA, and 2.3 HR/9 across 59.1 road innings.
Scherzer has qualified for a decision in 17 of 24 starts this season, including six of the last seven. He should have a solid chance of cashing this prop Friday at a great price.
Eduardo Rodriguez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-130 DraftKings) or To Record A Win (+145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Eduardo Rodriguez has been on a roll most of the season and would arguably have at least 2-3 more wins with better run support, as his 9-7 mark is accompanied by a 3.21 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, and 0.8 HR/9. The left-hander has been equally effective on the road as in his home stadium of Comerica Park -- he sports a 3.20 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, and 0.7 HR/9 in 64.2 away frames.
Rodriguez faces a White Sox squad he already held to one earned run over six innings while recording six strikeouts back on May 28. Chicago has been underachieving all season and has struggled versus lefties, wrapping up August with an MLB-high 28.9 percent strikeout rate versus southpaws while also posting a .295 wOBA and -4.1 wRAA in that split.
Detroit is up to a -140 favorite for Friday's game and Rodriguez has thrown at least six Ks in 11 of his 20 starts -- with seven of those coming on the road -- while coming up just short with five strikeouts on another five occasions. The K prop is my preferred way to go here. But the win prop is certainly a solid alternative at that price, especially with the Tigers' 31-34 road mark appreciably better than the Sox's 28-37 home record.
Patrick Sandoval OVER 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Patrick Sandoval's 7-10 record is somewhat belied by an impressive 3.95 ERA and stingy 0.7 HR/9. The left-hander has also been at his best on the road, where he carries a 3.50 ERA and 8.4 K/9 across 64.1 road innings. He'll enter Friday's start in the midst of what shapes up as his best stretch of pitching this season, as he's sporting a 2.76 ERA and 9.4 K/9 over 42.1 innings in his last eight starts.
Sandoval has already faced the Athletics once this season and turned in a quality start, surrendering three runs (two earned) over seven innings in Los Angeles back on April 26. Oakland continues to be a highly appealing matchup, as the A's have a 26.7 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitching at home since the All-Star break.
Sandoval has at least six strikeouts in eight starts this season, and he's come up just short with five Ks on four other occasions. The lefty has at least six Ks in three of the last four outings, and he's a solid bet to extend that pattern Friday.
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MLB Hitting Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 0.5 RBI (-120 PointsBet SportsBook) or To Hit A HR (+310 Caesars Sportsbook)
The potent Blue Jays lineup unsurprisingly is projected for a massive seven runs at Coors Field on Friday night, so banking on the prodigious Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to knock at least one of them in while facing a very vulnerable starting pitcher isn't a bad idea by any stretch. Rockies starter Chris Flexen has been effective in his last two starts, but he's still carrying a 6.94 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and 2.4 HR/9 overall this season between his time with Seattle and Colorado.
Guerrero has curiously been a much better hitter on the road this season, posting a .296 average, .854 OPS, .367 wOBA, and 12.0 wRAA in that split. He's slugged 12 of his 20 homers against righties on the road as well, and 41 of his 79 RBI have also come outside of Rogers Centre. Then, Guerrero has tormented Flexen in the past, posting a .571 average against him in 10 career plate appearances.
Guerrero also has a .317 average with men on base, including a .281 figure with men in scoring position, on the road. Given the numbers cited and the fact Guerrero heads into Friday with a .298 average, seven RBI, and a tiny 6.1 percent strikeout rate in his last 11 games, either of these two props are very appealing.
Adam Frazier OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-105 DraftKings SportsBook)
The Orioles have a solid non-Coors projected run total of five for Friday night's road date with the Diamondbacks and Zach Davies, who enters with a 6.28 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and 1.3 HR/9 alongside an 0-4 record in 43 home innings. Meanwhile, Adam Frazier has a couple of things going for him on paper, beginning with the fact he's been a much better hitter outside his Camden Yards home park.
Frazier boasts a .270 average and .754 OPS against righties on the road. He's generated a .345 average with three doubles and a triple while striking out just once versus Davies in 30 career encounters. The D-Backs right-hander has also surrendered a .303 average, .364 wOBA, 1.5 HR/9, and 5.21 FIP to lefty bats at home, while Frazier is averaging 1.9 hits + runs + RBI per game in his 57 road contests.
Finally, Arizona relievers could be good targets for Frazier once Davies exits, considering they pitched to a 6.31 ERA, .290 BAA, and .368 wOBA against left-handed hitters in August.
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