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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Friday, July 14, 2023. Use Juan Carlos Blanco's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sports books.
Baseball returns in full force Friday night after the four-day All-Star break, meaning we should have some refreshed arms and bats in action. There are two pitchers in particular who typically log plenty of innings and should therefore have a bit of extra juice with a week of rest Friday night, and there are also a trio of hitters in what I consider favorable spots.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, July 14, 2023. Let's jump in to the breakdown without further ado, and good luck Rotoballers!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Charlie Morton OVER 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+102 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Morton gets to kick off his second half against a White Sox team that has been among the most underachieving in either league this season. Chicago checks into Friday night's interleague battle with a 27.5 percent strikeout rate against righties on the road over the last month of play, the second-highest figure in the AL and the third highest in all of MLB.
Morton's swing-and-miss stuff has been in its best form at home, where he owns an 11.1 K/9 across 43.2 innings. The veteran right-hander has 12 strikeouts in 43 career encounters with current White Sox bats, and he also may be spared from having to face Luis Robert on Friday due to the calf tightness the slugger experienced during the Home Run Derby on Monday night.
Morton has recorded at least seven strikeouts in eight of 17 starts while falling just short in three others with six K's. And, Morton's arm should benefit from the extra rest provided by the All-Star break, as he last took the hill last Friday.
Luis Castillo OVER 18.5 Outs Recorded (+110 BetMGM Sportsbook)
Castillo has been a workhorse for the Mariners throughout the season, going at least six innings in 11 of his 18 starts. Then, three of the five times he's logged seven frames on the hill have come at home, where Friday's start against the Tigers will unfold.
The right-hander has been at his best at Safeco Field, where he's carrying a 5-2 record, 2.44 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 0.9 HR/9 over 66.1 innings into the second half. Detroit has a -3.7 wRAA against righties in the last month as well, and current hitters on the Tigers roster that have faced Castillo have struck out 14 times over 45 plate appearances while posting an anemic .578 OPS.
Castillo will also enjoy the benefit of a rested arm after not pitching in the ASG and last taking the hill a week ago.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Randy Arozarena OVER 1.5 total bases (+125 Bet365 Sportsbook)
Arozarena is fresh off an impressive showing in the MLB Home Run Derby and now starts his second half with a matchup against Royals right-hander Alec Marsh, who's pitched to a 7.00 ERA, 1.78 WHIP and 3.0 HR/9 over his first two starts. The young prospect does have plenty of strikeout upside, but he's also facing a very dangerous hitter against his trademark four-seam fastball.
Marsh has surrendered a .357 average, 1.071 OPS and .447 wOBA when throwing the four-seam, which he's done on 76 occasions already through nine big-league innings. Meanwhile, Arozarena has crushed the four-seamer for a .294 average, 1.061 OPS and .450 wOBA, along with a 208 wRC+.
Marsh has had trouble over a small sample in same-handed matchups, yielding a .278 average and .425 wOBA in that split. For his part, Arozarena has enjoyed plenty of success against righties on the road -- he's carrying a .293 average and .368 wOBA -- and he's accumulated 147 total bases in 88 games.
Matt Olson OVER 2.5 Hits + RBI + Runs (+110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Olson has been a primary beneficiary of hitting out of the heart of baseball's most potent lineup, as he's accumulated 229 hits + runs + RBI across just 89 games (2.6 per game). Olson has unsurprisingly been especially lethal versus righties at home, a split in which he owns a .275 average, 1.023 OPS and .424 wOBA across 163 plate appearances.
The slugger will face Michael Kopech to open the game Friday, with the White Sox righty having surrendered 13 extra-base hits (out of 28 total) to left-handed hitters and having pitched to a career-high 5.1 BB/9 along with an 1.8 HR/9. White Sox relievers are also a good target, considering their 5.97 ERA, .285 BAA and .361 wOBA allowe thus far in July.
Finally, consider Atlanta has an implied team total of six runs as of Friday morning, and that number has actually risen from an opening figure of 5.4. Given all the factors cited, a productive night for Olson could certainly be in the works.
Jack Suwinski To Hit a HR (+390 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Suwinski has already matched his rookie-season HR total of 19 and done so over 75 fewer plate appearances, and he has a favorable matchup with which to roll with him on Friday -- Giants starter Ross Stripling, who's pitched to a career-high 2.4 HR/9 over his first 41 innings this season.
Suwinski has slugged 18 of his 19 round-trippers on the season off righties, while nine of 11 dingers Stripling has allowed have come off righty bats. Suwinski has also belted half of his homers off the four-seam fastball on his way to a .405 wOBA against a pitch that qualifies as the second-most often thrown offering for Stripling versus righty bats. For his part, Stripling has surrendered a .419 wOBA when throwing it against right-handed hitters.
Suwinski also has a massive 18.5 percent barrel rate and 51.7 percent hard-hit rate overall, and it's also worth noting Giants relievers have opened July pitching to an 8.35 ERA, .312 average and .399 wOBA to right-handed hitters over an 85-batter sample.
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