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We're set for a typically expansive Friday slate in MLB, and as customary, we have some interesting individual matchups that we can focus in on and try to profit from in the form of prop bets.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, May 5, 2023. I'll begin with three eye-catching pitcher props before transitioning over to a pair of wagers for prodigious sluggers that are in some favorable matchups Friday.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Pick
Max Fried OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed (-155 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Taking the Over on any prop not related to strikeouts may seem counterintuitive when it comes to Fried, considering he hasn't allowed a single earned run over the 16.2 innings covering his last three starts and now sports a tiny 0.45 ERA and 0.90 WHIP across 20 innings overall this season. However, the left-hander will naturally have to comeback down to earth to a certain degree at some point, and Friday night's matchup against a dangerous Orioles lineup could well offer conditions for such.
Baltimore now sports a 21-10 mark and owns a .290 average, .904 OPS, .389 wOBA and 14.1 wRAA against southpaws on the road in a sample of 247 plate appearances. What's more, the O's own a 13.4 percent walk rate and impressively modest 19.8 percent strikeout rate in that split while recording the second-most homers (11), most RBI (49) and most stolen bases (12). Fried may well keep any damage to just a couple of runs, but given Baltimore's firepower, this is a prop that could certainly hit.
Matthew Boyd OVER 2.5 earned runs allowed (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Boyd is another southpaw I'm recommending an Over bet on Friday, and in his case, it doesn't take any real speculation to envision the wager hitting. The veteran southpaw undeniably has talent and the ability to miss bats in particular, but he's been largely inconsistent throughout his long career and has had seasons where he's especially had trouble keeping the ball in the park. Coming off a career-best 1.35 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over a small sample of 13.1 innings last season, Boyd has been knocked around for a 5.47 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 1.5 HR/9 across 24.2 innings thus far in 2023.
He now faces a daunting matchup on paper in an interleague clash against the Cardinals, which own a .304 average, .853 OPS and .374 wOBA against left-handed pitching at Busch Stadium, along with an 11.2 percent walk rate and 17.2 percent strikeout rate. Boyd has been better on the road, but St. Louis will come at him with a righty-heavy lineup (including a pair of switch hitters) that includes the fearsome trio of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras.
Corbin Burnes OVER 17.5 outs recorded (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I'll take an opposite, more positive outlook with Burnes, who's pitched to a 2.95 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 0.5 HR/9 across 18.1 road innings this season. The talented right-hander has actually typically been better when traveling, producing a 2.93 ERA and .200 BAA across 261.1 career road frames. Burnes has exceeded 17.5 outs in two of his first six starts, and last season, he accomplished the feat in 23 of 33 turns.
The Giants could well help facilitate a longer start for Burnes, considering the pitcher-friendly conditions of Oracle Park and the fact current San Francisco bats have a collective .156/.206/.250 slash line against him in 68 career encounters. The Giants also have an elevated 25.1 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in the last two weeks of play (315 plate appearances) and Burnes has averaged just over six innings per start while generating a 1.85 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 0.4 HR/9 across his last four trips to the mound.
Corbin Burnes, Nasty 94mph Cutter. ✂️ pic.twitter.com/a9ExBlZvgr
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 29, 2023
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Pete Alonso OVER 1.5 total bases (+125 DraftKings SportsBook)
Alonso gets a crack at the debuting Antonio Senzatela at home, with the veteran right-hander making his first start since August 18th of last season after overcoming an ACL tear. Senzatela was knocked around for six runs on nine hits over three innings in his most recent rehab start and has actually had more trouble on the road than Coors Field in recent seasons, pitching to a 1-12, record, 5.55 ERA and 1.59 WHIP when traveling since 2021.
Alonso, who has a .444 average against Senzatela in nine career encounters, owns a .272 average, .854 OPS and 58 homers in same-handed matchups over the last two-plus seasons, and he's already accumulated 66 total bases in just 32 games this season. Senazatela, meanwhile, gave up a .369 average and .405 wOBA along with 21 extra-base hits in same-handed matchups a year ago, and Rockies relievers have allowed a .274 average and 24 extra-base hits to right-handed hitters thus far this season.
Paul Goldschmidt AT LEAST 2 hits (+190 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Goldschmidt has enjoyed plenty of success against left-handed pitching, making this an intriguing prop to jump on at plus money Friday. The veteran slugger checks in a .333 average, .363 wOBA and tiny 10.7 percent strikeout rate against southpaws over a small sample this season. Zooming out to his much larger 2022 body of work, Goldschmidt posted a jaw-dropping .411 average, 1.327 OPS and .549 wOBA versus lefties.
Boyd has allowed a .278 average, 1.63 WHIP and .354 wOBA to right-handed hitters thus far, while Goldschmidt already has 11 multi-hit efforts in 31 games. He's also been at his best at home, where he sports a .309 average, .942 OPS and .413 wOBA over 67 plate appearances.
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