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We're set for another big Friday night MLB slate, and I'm honing in on three pitcher and two hitter props that I believe are very viable based on matchups and supporting metrics.
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I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, May 19, 2023, in this article. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Zac Gallen OVER 18.5 Outs Recorded (+145 BetMGM Sportsbook)
The Over on 6.5 strikeouts is another intriguing prop tied to Gallen on Friday, but we'll go for the much better price on this wager, which is also very achievable for the red-hot right-hander.
Gallen boasts a 6-1 record, 2.35 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and an outstanding 70:8 K:BB across 57.1 innings. The pinpoint control has helped Gallen pitch deep into games on plenty of occasions already. He's logged at least 19 outs in six of nine starts and fell just short with 18 outs on one other occasion.
He draws a matchup that could facilitate more of the same Friday. After a hot start, the Pirates have slowed down considerably and have been particularly poor against right-handed pitching at home of late. Pittsburgh has just a .185 average and .278 wOBA in that split in May, and current Pirates bats own a collective .156 average and .469 OPS versus Gallen in 36 career encounters.
Zac Gallen is the most under-appreciated player in baseball.
This season, he is 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA and 64 K’s in 49.2 innings. He leads MLB with 2.4 fWAR.
He has the lowest ERA among pitchers with at least 230 IP since the start of 2022.
Best pitcher in baseball? pic.twitter.com/97PJmORMEV
— MLB Metrics (@MLBMetrics) May 10, 2023
Shane McClanahan OVER 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-105 FanDuel Sportsbook)
McClanahan is once again a prime contender for Cy Young honors after compiling a 7-0 record, 2.34 ERA, 11.0 K/9, and an elite 16.6 percent swinging strike rate over his first nine starts. The southpaw is averaging a career-high 97 mph on his fastball as well. Friday, he draws a matchup highly conducive to more success on the swing-and-miss front.
The Brewers have been one of the most inept teams against left-handed pitching in either league. Milwaukee has been especially poor versus southpaws on the road, where the Brew Crew sports an MLB-high 32.4 percent strikeout rate against that handedness, as well as an MLB-low .252 wOBA.
McClanahan carries a 13.3 K/9 across 23 innings at Tropicana Field as well, and he's recorded at least six strikeouts in seven of his nine trips to the mound.
Yusei Kikuchi OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed ( +110 BetMGM Sportsbook)
Kikuchi has arguably pitched above his head thus far this season with a 5-0 record, but he has a 5.01 xERA that's appreciably higher than his actual 3.89 figure. Kikuchi is also surrendering an 11.1 percent barrel rate and 47.6 percent hard-hit rate per Statcast.
Kikuchi has surrendered more hits (46) than innings pitched (41.1), and he's already conceded at least five runs in three starts. The opposing Orioles make for a dangerous opponent, as Baltimore owns a .281 average, .833 OPS, and .367 wOBA against southpaws in May, and .890 OPS and 15.1 wRAA versus that handedness on the road for the season.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Ryan Mountcastle OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-105 BetRivers SportsBook)
Mountcastle has enjoyed plenty of success in the past against Blue Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi, knocking the left-hander around for a .444 average and recording extra bases all four times (one double, three homers) he's hit safely against him in 11 plate appearances.
Mountcastle has tallied extra bases on 21 of his 45 hits overall to date this season, and he's punished left-handed pitching for a .333 average and 10 extra-base hits (out of 19 total) in 60 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Kikuchi has surrendered a .286 average and .353 wOBA to right-handed hitters, yielding 13 extra-base hits (four doubles, nine homers) along the way.
Josh Lowe OVER 0.5 RBI (+210 BetRivers Sportsbook)
Lowe has been unforgiving against right-handed pitching, posting a .302 average, .410 wOBA, and .311 ISO in that split across 115 plate appearances. The hot-hitting outfielder is also hitting .291 with runners on base, and an elite .393 with men in scoring position specifically.
Meanwhile, Brewers starter Adrian Houser has been hit hard by left-handed hitters throughout his career, surrendering a .290 average, .359 wOBA, and 72 extra-base hits across a sample of 874 batters.
Lowe typically hits a bit past the midpoint of a highly talented lineup that has scored an MLB-high 72 runs against right-handed pitching in May, which certainly ups the chances of him having multiple RBI opportunities. Brewers relievers also make for good targets once Houser exits, considering they've pitched to a 5.74 ERA and already allowed 24 extra-base hits in May.
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