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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Friday, May 12, 2023. Use Juan Carlos Blanco's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.
We're set for another typically massive Friday night MLB slate, meaning we have no shortage of options to go with when considering both pitcher and hitter props. There are some intriguing matchups for both arms and bats throughout the night, so we'll dive right in.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, May 12, 2023. Good luck Rotoballers!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Corbin Burnes OVER 6.5 strikeouts (+104 Caesars Sportsbook)
Burnes' strikeout numbers are perplexingly down by a good bit this season, despite his fastball still averaging a robust 95.5 mph. The right-hander owns just a 19.8 percent strikeout rate after turning in a figure over 30.0 percent in three straight seasons.
The fewer swings and misses have helped lead to this very appealing price on a prop Burnes is still capable of hitting. The opposing Royals make for a very good target to roll the dice with Burnes on, considering Kansas City has struck out at a 28.2 percent clip versus righties on the road in the last month.
Burnes has only exceeded 6.5 strikeouts once this season, but he vaulted over that figure in 18 of 33 starts last season. Given the Royals' struggles and his still-potent fastball, it's worth taking a shot on a talent the caliber of Burnes at this price.
Austin Gomber OVER 5.5 hits allowed (-159 Caesars Sportsbook)
Gomber toes the rubber against a dangerous Phillies lineup at Coors Field, presenting a good opportunity to bank on him underperforming. The left-hander has already pitched to a 10.66 ERA, 1.97 WHIP and 2.1 HR/9 over 12.2 innings at home this season.
Gomber has pitched well over his last three starts, but two of those have come on the road. He's still allowed over a hit per inning this season (37 across 33.1 frames) despite the recent improvement, and he's allowed over 5.5 hits in two of his first three starts at home.
Considering even same-handed matchups have proven problematic -- Gomber has given up a .333 average when facing left-handed hitters -- this is a prop that could certainly cash at Coors.
Marco Gonzales UNDER 17.5 outs recorded (-135 BetMGM Sportsbook)
Gonzales is another left-hander that finds himself in less than ideal circumstances Friday. The veteran does own a 2-0 record, but he's pitching to plenty of contact as usual and draws a bad matchup on paper against the Tigers in Detroit.
The Tigers own a .281 average and .369 wOBA against left-handed pitching at home over the last month, and six of the players projected to be in Detroit's lineup have multiple hits against Gonzales in their career. Gonzales also sports an elevated 3.3 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9 across 13.2 road frames this season, along with a middling 5.9 K/9.
Given he doesn't miss many bats and the Tigers have a .295 average against lefties overall in the last month, this is an outing where I can see Gonzales pitching less than 6 innings, as has been the case in four of his first six starts.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Ty France OVER 1.5 total bases (+115 DraftKings SportsBook)
France gets a crack at southpaw Matthew Boyd to start the game Friday, who's allowed a .306 average to right-handed hitters at home thus far this season. Boyd has pitched to a .286 BAA and 6.46 ERA at home overall in a sample of 15.1 innings.
France is a high-contact hitter with decent pop who always has a chance to get on base multiple times in a game. The veteran has 53 total bases in 37 games thus far, and he owns a .343 average over 35 plate appearances in May specifically.
Nick Castellanos OVER 1.5 total bases (-125 DraftKings SportsBook)
Castellanos has feasted on left-handed pitching throughout most of his career, and this season has been no different in the early going. The veteran slugger already boasts a .343 average and .982 OPS across 39 plate appearances versus southpaws.
Castellanos is already averaging over two total bases per game -- he has 75 in just 37 contests -- and Rockies starter Austin Gomber has surrendered a .380 average and .483 wOBA to the 54 right-handed hitters he's faced at Coors Field thus far this season.
With the Coors setting and Castellanos' .322 average and .894 OPS overall this season, this is a highly viable prop to roll with.
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