Bills vs. Texans Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Thursday Night - Josh Allen, James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, Woody Marks, Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz

Fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em lineups advice for Bills vs. Texans on Thursday Night Football in Week 12 (2025). NFL matchups analysis and TNF starts/sits.

In the last five weeks of Thursday Night Football games, we have been treated to underwhelming teams such as the New York Jets, Las Vegas Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, New York Giants, and Minnesota Vikings (J.J. McCarthy? Yikes). Week 12 gives us a reprieve from those underwhelming teams as the Buffalo Bills, one of the league's best offenses, visit the Houston Texans, one of the league's best defenses. Both teams have been slightly disappointing in 2025, but are still in the thick of the playoff hunt.

Josh Allen is coming off a game where he accounted for six total touchdowns. The Texans are coming off a three-game stretch where they are second in the NFL in yards allowed per play. The unit that breaks first in this battle might just determine the outcome on Thursday night. But the Texans might be at the biggest disadvantage with quarterback C.J. Stroud unlikely to play again.

I will bring you Thursday Night Football analysis all season, focusing on who to start, who is on the fence, and who should be benched. Let's dive into this Week 12 Thursday night matchup for the 2025 season. You can also check out our main Week 12 start 'em, sit 'em matchups article for all other games. Good luck in your fantasy football week, RotoBallers!

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

Thursday, November 20, 8:15 PM ET

Notable Injuries:

• Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF) - Questionable - Hamstring
• Curtis Samuel (WR, BUF) - Questionable - Elbow/Neck
• Joshua Palmer (WR, BUF) - Questionable - Knee
• C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU) - OUT - Concussion
• Dalton Schultz (TE, HOU) - Questionable - Shoulder

Bills vs. Texans Matchup Breakdown

Allen vs. Davis Mills might not be the premier quarterback matchup we were hoping for when this game was first added to the schedule, but Houston has been passing better with Mills lately. In fact, over the last three games, the Texans and Bills are both top ten in passing yards per game and pass completions per game. Where this matchup gets interesting is that both teams are also top-ten in fewest passing yards allowed per game in the last three.

A little AFC action to kick off Week 12 😮‍💨

BUFvsHOU– Thursday 8:15pm ET on Prime Video
Also streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/sz6d3yYCUA

— NFL (@NFL) November 18, 2025

At home, Houston scores 24.4 points per game this season, a full five points higher than when they are on the road. They will need every bit of that since Buffalo scores an identical 24.3 points per game on the road. Buffalo is getting 5.5 points per game in this one, which seems like a high number against a defense that is as strong as Houston's. They are top five on both fewest passing yards allowed and fewest rushing yards allowed. They are also 11th in the league with a 7.4% sack rate.

On Buffalo's side, they are fifth in the league with an 8.7% sack rate this season. This is where trouble starts for Houston. Their weak offensive line is 20th in the last three games, allowing sacks at a 7.4% clip. If Buffalo can disrupt this line all night, this is where it looks like they can cover that 5.5 number.

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Josh Allen (QB, BUF)

Would you try to put Superman back in the phonebook after he displays all his superhuman feats? I didn't think so. I wouldn't care if this were the 1985 Bears that Allen is playing on Thursday; he showed what he is capable of with his six-touchdown (three rush, three pass) day against Tampa Bay. Allen is averaging three more fantasy points per game than any other quarterback this season.

James Cook (RB, BUF)

Two of Cook's last four games have been extremely mediocre, so it's been easy to forget that he is sixth among running backs in half-PPR fantasy points per game and overall fantasy points. The Texans are also mostly impenetrable against the run, but Cook can beat teams through both the ground and the air. He also has 32 red zone opportunities this year, while no other skill player besides Allen has more than seven.

Nico Collins (WR, HOU)

How good has Collins been with Mills at quarterback? In the last three weeks, Collins has had the fourth-most half-PPR fantasy points among wide receivers. He has been over 19 fantasy points in each of his last two games as well. Collins has an incredible 36 targets over the last three games.

Possible Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)

Kincaid has this weird pattern of alternating between great games and awful games this season. If that continues, he is in for a big night. But on the realistic side, Kincaid is top ten in fantasy points per game among tight ends this season. And with the state of the position right now, all you need is about 75 yards or a touchdown to make it into the top ten fantasy producers each week.

Dalton Schultz (TE, HOU)

Much like his teammate, Nico Collins, Schultz has been peppered with targets with Mills running the show. In his last three games, Schultz has 8, 11, and 9 targets, resulting in 19 catches and a touchdown in that span.

Woody Marks (RB, HOU)

Marks has now played more than two-thirds of his team's snaps in back-to-back games. He had 16 carries in Week 10 and topped that with 18 totes in Week 11. Buffalo is a sneaky-bad team against running backs, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game this season to the position. They also allow a league-leading 14 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Khalil Shakir (WR, BUF)

Shakir may have only had one catch for minus-three yards last week, but that game was an outlier. He had at least six receptions and seven targets in three previous games. He has become the reliable middle of the field weapon for Allen, but that's where the Texans excel the most. Houston is the best team in the league, allowing just 5.4 passing yards per attempt to their opponents.

Joshua Palmer and Keon Coleman (WRs, BUF)

Please visit the section for "Shakir, Khalil." Playing with the Bills' wide receivers is playing with fantasy fire.

Dawson Knox (TE, BUF)

In two games where Kincaid has not played, Knox's snap shares have been 81% and 77%. When Kincaid does play? He goes down to at or below 50%. Knox has had one game with more than one reception since Week 5.

Davis Mills (QBs, HOU)

It's doubtful that Stroud plays on Thursday, so that leaves the decision as to whether or not to stream Mills in a standard 10 or 12-team league. In his three starts, Mills has one elite game, one mediocre game, and one lousy game. The Bills have allowed only 10 passing touchdowns all season, so I certainly see this falling in the "mediocre" or "lousy" category for Mills this week.

Nick Chubb (RB, HOU)

Chubb has nine total touches for 64 total yards in his last two games, and has seen rookie Marks completely pass him by. Chubb also has not passed a 26% snap share in each of his previous two games.

Jayden Higgins, Xavier Hutchinson, and Christian Kirk (WRs, HOU)

After Collins and Schultz, the Texans are favoring a rotation of sorts at wide receiver. None of these receivers listed here (and we can also include Jaylin Noel) has seen greater than a 61% snap share in the last two games, and the three here have not seen less than 43% of snaps. Essentially, all three of them are playing half the game each week, making the projections for each very hard to trust.

Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks

Current Spread: BUF -5.5
Over/Under: 43.5

This game originally opened up as Houston +3.5 and has moved all the way up to +5.5 in recent days. Why might that be the case? It could be the Mills factor. It could be that Allen turned into Superman again last week, or it could be that Buffalo is 5-1 straight up against the spread in their last six November games.

However, Buffalo is also 2-4 against the spread in their last six road games. They are a much better team at home (just ask Tampa Bay about that last week), and just find ways to squeak by on the road. Considering the Bills haven't played a defense quite like Houston's, and this same defense shut down Allen last year, I am leaning toward Houston covering this number.

Give me Buffalo 21, Houston 17 in a game where the Texans cover, and the game goes under the implied total.

The Pick: HOU +5.5, UNDER 43.5

2025 Overall Record:
Spread (5-6), Over/Under (5-6)

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