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The San Francisco 49ers made Trey Sermon the fourth running back off the board in the 2021 NFL draft. Although this is a very weak running back class, that is still relatively high by comparison. Sermon walks into a crowded backfield, but one without a true alpha.
When evaluating prospects' likelihood of NFL success, we care about three things:
1. College performance
2. Athletic measurables
3. Draft capital
We've already looked at Chuba Hubbard, Rondale Moore, and Trey Lance. Now, let's evaluate Trey Sermon as he tries to crack the crowded RB rotation in San Francisco.
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College Performance
Trey Sermon played four years at college and did not break out until his senior season after transferring to Ohio State.
When analyzing a prospect's ceiling, we look at his best college season, which for Sermon was his senior season. Sermon rushed for 870 yards on 116 carries in just eight games. If you extrapolate his shortened 2020 into a full season, Sermon would've put up about 1,400 yards on the ground. Sermon also recorded a career-high 8.4% target share last year, which is encouraging after he was seldom used as a receiver in each of his first three seasons.
Sermon's college performance suggests that he is capable of producing in the NFL at a high level under the right circumstances.
Athletic Measurables
At 6'0, 215 lbs, Sermon has the size to be a three-down back in the NFL. I don't want to call him slow because he has 81st percentile burst, but he ran a putrid 4.66 adjusted 40. Historically, anything slower than 4.65 is a death sentence for a prospect's NFL success. It is a bit difficult to reconcile Sermon's incredible burst with his lack of long speed. The good news is Sermon also posted a 79th percentile agility score, so it would be unfair to call him unathletic purely because of his 40 time.
Sermon's size and measurables point to a player suited to be a downhill runner. He is one of those guys that does look better on tape for whatever it's worth.
Rookie Season Outlook
As a day three pick, Sermon has a legitimate chance to be an effective player in the NFL. Landing in San Francisco is either a blessing or a curse depending on how you choose to look at it. On the one hand, the 49ers' backfield is filled with Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr., Wayne Gallman, and JaMycal Hasty. On the other hand, none of these guys are particularly special. Sermon simultaneously has a lot of competition and very little competition to carve out a meaningful role.
Mostert is 29 years old and can't seem to stay on the field. Wilson is Kyle Shanahan's darling but just a completely unathletic replacement-level talent that I can't figure out why Shanahan loves so much. Gallman was signed to a one-year, $1 million deal and is no lock to make the final roster. Hasty is a UDFA that showed some flashes last season but was ultimately not given a real chance even when the rest of the running backs on this team were injured. He could very well be released after training camp.
Sermon has a very real opportunity to take over this backfield as a rookie. Shanahan has proven over the course of his career that he can make any running back look like a superstar. Sermon is very much worth a late-round redraft selection as your fantasy team's RB4 or RB5.
Long-Term Outlook
With literally every other running back on the 49ers unsigned beyond 2021, even if Sermon doesn't produce much as a rookie, he has a very clear path to being the lead back in 2022. It's difficult to imagine Mostert will return next season and even if the 49ers bring back Wilson and Gallman, Sermon should easily dispatch both of them as he is a far superior talent. Sermon is very worthy of a second-round selection in dynasty rookie drafts.
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