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John breaks down two steals and two busts in the third round of 2025 dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts. Who are the best and worst players to take in the third round of rookie drafts in dynasty fantasy football in 2025?
By the third round of rookie dynasty fantasy football drafts, a lot of the talent has already been taken off the board. Luckily for us, most people follow consensus rankings very closely in their drafts, so there are plenty of chances to capitalize on this because good players are still available in the later rounds.
It's not always easy to identify them, but that's what you have me for, I guess. I spend most of my time doing analysis on rookies because the best way to turn your team around is to hit on all the picks you make in your rookie drafts. There's no better solution unless you're able to fleece your league-mates in trades.
Similarly, it's a good idea to avoid busts. Picking a bust sucks, but if you consider that even in the later rounds, the opportunity cost is missing out on great talent, and it's hugely detrimental to your team to pick the bad players. So let's break down two busts and two sleepers from the third round of dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts for 2025.
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Sleeper: RJ Harvey, RB, UCF
A thorough review of the film of this year's running back class has left me with a variety of extremely perplexing questions. One of the biggest is how UCF running back RJ Harvey isn't viewed as an elite RB prospect. The film shows a highly elusive, elite athlete, and the statistics show monstrous production in his last two seasons of college. He was completely dominant in 2023 and 2024.
RJ Harvey in 2023: 226 carries 1,416 yards, 6.3 yards per carry, 16 touchdowns
RJ Harvey in 2024: 232 carries, 1,577 yards, 6.8 yards per carry, 22 touchdowns
Elite production, elite film. Elite prospect. Somehow RB9 in rookie rankings? What?https://t.co/caxJY1PSdV pic.twitter.com/VxJQ0UR8ke— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 21, 2025
Harvey is criminally underrated right now, and while he's an older prospect (he recently turned 24 years old) he was so good in college that it's nonsense that you should be able to get him in the third round. He's much, much better than his RB9 label would suggest. He's my personal RB2, though my rankings aren't super popular, because I have him ahead of Ashton Jeanty.
Regardless, I think the two players are far, far closer in talent level than people think. Even if Harvey isn't quite what Jeanty is at the next level, I think he's in for a monster rookie season, so that would make his pick here a steal. He crushed the combine, proving that the elite athleticism he showed on tape was real. He's more explosive and faster than Jeanty, for starters.
RJ Harvey is a big play waiting to happen pic.twitter.com/nuSJoHz38c
— Steven Patton (@PattonAnalytics) March 13, 2025
Harvey's elusiveness and burst alone should have people paying more attention to him. Athleticism is extremely important at the RB position in fantasy football. Combine that with elite strength, contact balance, and elusiveness, and you get yourself a league-winner.
RJ Harvey had 69 MTF last season. pic.twitter.com/XgdPewq5Tc
— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) March 20, 2025
It wasn't hard to evaluate Harvey because his film was just so good.
Bust: Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama
Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe can't hit the broad side of a barn with his passes at times. I don't see how he has a chance of getting much playing time in 2025 in the NFL, and if he does, it could get ugly very quickly. He can't be counted on to hit routine passes right now, and his tape is littered with awful decisions and inaccurate throws.
Jalen Milroe today @ the Senior Bowl practice.
Some good. A lot of bad.
This guys needs development that the Browns can’t give him pic.twitter.com/q8CIT9wmWF
— Derelict Sports (@DerelictSports) January 28, 2025
I think there's still too much focus on physical traits for quarterbacks. What's between the ears is more important. Teams are obviously infatuated with the idea of getting the next Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, but they're exceptions rather than rules.
Many of the league's best quarterbacks, and many of the best QBs in history, were inferior athletes who had an understanding of the game and improvisational ability that wasn't matched.
One thing you can't teach at the position is accuracy. QBs need to be pinpoint accurate in all situations, and their misses are better being a result of not throwing the ball to the right place rather than intending to throw it there and just missing. In the above X post, the second clip shows Milroe, with zero pressure or any defenders flying in his face, badly missing a player on an in-breaking route.
Jalen Milroe is looking just plain awful at the #SeniorBowl. Here he is in 11-on-11s. He muffs the snap and then throws it right to the defensive back. #TheDraftStartsInMOBILE pic.twitter.com/pgYGFOCAPf
— Roberto Shenanigans (@Rob_Shenanigans) January 29, 2025
After his pro day, in which he looked great throwing in shorts and ran really fast, X is inundated with positive takes on him, highlighting his arm strength, speed, and a lot of his highlights. But it's hard not to see him as Anthony Richardson 2.0. No amount of rushing upside can overcome extremely poor accuracy and bad decision-making.
Milroe's Senior Bowl was hideous, and it exposed his inability to read defenses. He'll be coveted by "I Can Fix Him" NFL teams, and those who are willing to take a chance just in case he's able to fix his problems. I don't like his chances.
Sleeper: Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Virginia Tech
Tuten being available in the third round is also a joke. Perhaps, after his combined performance, he'll be taken in the late or mid-second round in many fantasy drafts, but there will still likely be many leagues that are low on him.
A big reason for this is that he went to Virginia Tech, making the mistake of not attending an SEC or Big 10 school, where he'd be over rather than under-hyped. That's the way it works.
Virginia Tech RB Bhayshul Tuten at the 2025 Combine:
🔴 40 Yard Dash: 4.32 (1st)
🔴 10 Yard Split: 1.49 (1st)
🔴 Vertical Jump: 40.50” (1st)
🔴 Broad Jump: 10’10” (2nd)@HokiesFB pic.twitter.com/vJb0UZ9aIN— PFF College (@PFF_College) March 1, 2025
Tuten will enter the NFL and immediately become the most explosive (size-adjusted) running back in his position. Only Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane, who also ran a 4.32-second 40-yard dash at his combine, will rival Tuten's pure burst and speed.
Bhayshul Tuten is a big play waiting to happen pic.twitter.com/JYljankqym
— Billy M (@BillyM_91) March 8, 2025
Home-run plays are of massive importance to fantasy football, especially at the running back position. RBs who can break off multiple long touchdowns in a season immediately have sky-high upside because they can win you fantasy matchups with just one play and don't need massive volume every game to make up for their lack of explosiveness.
We saw this in Achane's rookie season when he put up massive stat lines without having a bell-cow workload.
The narrative around Tuten, rather than being that he's just not great, has now shifted post-combine to that he's just a speed back, but that's not true either. He has a great suite of tackle-breaking and tackle-avoiding skills and was one of the most elusive RBs in college football in 2024. He blows most of the backs in this class out of the water in missed tackles forced per carry.
Ashton Jeanty, Cam Skattebo, Bhayshul Tuten and RJ Harvey first team all analytics pic.twitter.com/zSXCpdA930
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) March 18, 2025
He's actually a very similar prospect to Harvey, with a precipitous athletic advantage. Getting a back that's that good at avoiding tackles and that athletic in the later rounds of rookie drafts at the RB position is an easy way to help your team out. You should be trading back, stocking up on second and third-round picks, and taking as much of Harvey and Tuten as you can.
Bust: Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Bowling Green
Fannin is a slow, lumbering, awkward mover. He was able to dominate his competition at Bowling Green, but the NFL has a different class of defenders. There are a lot of nuances to football that are poorly understood and difficult to prove, but they dictate reality.
I firmly believe that certain types of players, especially those who are strong and can break tackles well, are at a disproportionate advantage in smaller conferences like the Mid-American Conference.
Harold Fannin Jr would be such a mismatch weapon for Caley and Stroud
Ridiculous production (117 catches, 1,555 yards) as a 19 y/o, he’s like a RB in a TE’s body, underrated blocker, super versatile (in-line, slot, h-back, out wide)
Day 2 target 🎯
— Jordan Pun (@Texans_Thoughts) March 4, 2025
The tape looks pretty good from a production perspective, but he doesn't have much subtlety to his routes and relies mostly on hard jab steps to cut rather than having fluidity, which telegraphs his routes more to opposing defenses. He didn't have a great combine, running above a 4.7 40-yard dash, at a position where athleticism is remarkably important.
Athleticism is very predictive of NFL production at the TE position.
These are @FantasyPts composite SPORQ athleticism scores against best-season receiving YPG from college.
The class's best TEs haven't tested yet, but Terrance Ferguson is already in a pretty interesting area! pic.twitter.com/f8wltJIMBV
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) March 20, 2025
He benefitted from a lot of busted coverages in college. That's not an easy thing to prove because I don't have statistics on the percentage of busted coverages compared to overall plays, but watching the tape should make it apparent. Fannin doesn't have the speed or quickness to compete with NFL linebackers. The step-up in defensive prowess is killer for a lot of players.
He's also a bit undersized, weighing under 240 pounds, so that won't help. The lack of route-running nuance won't aid him in beating defensive backs, either. I'd avoid it.
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