Fantasy Baseball League Winners: Unlikely Aces Worth A Roster Spot?

Tommy Bell's weekly deep dive into three fantasy baseball starting pitchers to decide if their surprisingly good form merits a roster spot or staying on the waiver wire.

The arrival of June comes with a feeling of panic for many fantasy baseball managers who are desperately trying to patch holes in their starting pitcher rotation due to injuries and/or lackluster performances. Fortunately, many leagues have hidden gems available on the waiver wire if we look deep enough.

Each week, I'll take a look at three starters who have found recent success despite lesser outlooks across the fantasy landscape. By diving into some analytics, we can try to predict whether a back-end arm can potentially carry fantasy managers to glory, or if the strong performances are more likely a flash in the pan.

Are these unlikely aces for real, or is it safe to leave them out on the waiver wire with negative regression surely coming in bunches quickly? Let's take a deeper look!

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Cole Irvin, Baltimore Orioles

46% Rostered

Irvin has started his age-30 season off with a shocking 2.84 ERA and five wins in his first nine starts in Year 2 with the Baltimore Orioles. That's caught the eye of many fantasy managers, as his ownership percentage is approaching 50% in Yahoo! leagues. But is this sub-3.00 ERA trend trustworthy for the lefty?

In short, I wouldn't bank on it.

Irvin's strikeout percentage has actually dropped nearly 5% since his 2023 season, and his hard-hit percentage has gone up. That right there tells you all you need to know. Sure, his walk rate has come down a bit and he's getting a few more ground balls this year, but the fly balls remain the same. All analytics lead to an xERA of 4.50, which is where he's lived most of his career.

There are two possible bright spots in the southpaw's 11 appearances (nine starts) so far in 2024. For one, he pitches in a pitcher-friendly park in Baltimore. Ever since the fences were moved back, Camden Yards has been much friendlier for fly-ball pitchers, a category that Irvin certainly falls into. Secondly, he is throwing his slider twice as often as he did in 2023. That seems to be working so far in terms of getting outs, but why isn't that producing more swings and misses? My concern is that the slider will end up in gaps and over fences as the weather warms this summer.

Triston Casas (2)
2-Run Home Run

Opponent: Baltimore Orioles
Pitcher: Cole Irvin
Date: 4/10/24 pic.twitter.com/wCeOTmHAw0

— Red Sox Home Runs (@RedSox_HR) April 11, 2024

All in all, I don't see much to like here. With John Means out for the rest of the year, Irvin might find himself pitching for the O's long enough to remain fantasy-relevant. However, even with a beneficial home park, I don't see myself trusting his arsenal enough to start in most fantasy leagues, barring a home start against a bottom-seven offense. Tread carefully if you buy into Irvin!

Tylor Megill, New York Mets

23% Rostered

Megill is the most interesting of this group for one main reason: We can point to something tangible and explain his recent success. In the 28-year-old's case, it's an improvement to his pitch mix.

The biggest improvement to Megill's repertoire is a nasty splitter that he started working on toward the end of 2023. Now in 2024, he's throwing it 10% of the time (and climbing by the start), and he's getting tons of whiffs with it. We can see that positively impacting his strikeout numbers, as he's jumped up to a 10.29 K/9 rate so far this year.

TYLOR MEGILL LIGHTS OUT TODAY

7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, BB, 9 K

THE SPLITTER IS GROSS, AMERICAN SPORK FOREVER, TYLOR MEGILL YESSSSSS
pic.twitter.com/kpA4mhhnr5

— Mets'd Up Podcast (@MetsdUp) May 28, 2024

Along with the splitter, the right-hander has added some velocity to his four-seam fastball, continued to mix in a cutter, and even started to experiment with a sweeper, which he's only thrown a handful of times thus far due to command issues.

The main concerns with Megill will always be hard contact (35.2% hard-hit rate so far this year), fly balls (50% rate is by far the highest of his career), and walks (3.86 BB/9 is down from 2023, but still higher than we'd like to see). However, there is enough to like here to offset these concerns.

The most encouraging piece to the Megill puzzle is that he's willing to work on new pitches, seems to be committed enough to perfect them year over year, and he's still young enough to keep working more in. The Mets are far from the most successful organization when it comes to pitcher development, but this Megill thing seems to be working so far. I'm ready to come along for the ride in ALL leagues.

Luis Medina, Oakland Athletics

2% Rostered

Medina made his first major league start of 2024 last week, throwing 5.2 innings against the Braves and striking out six batters while walking two. He allowed one unearned run on just two hits. The 25-year-old threw a lot of innings in a depleted A's rotation last season, striking out 106 batters over 109.2 innings and finishing with a 5.42 ERA in his rookie season.

It's obviously too early in Medina's 2024 season to make any sweeping predictions, but the first taste was worth exploring further. If his increase of curveball usage (up to 24.7%) sticks around, a better strikeout rate could be expected. He'll have to balance that with his sinker to avoid another inflated HR/FB rate. With plenty of velocity and at least one strikeout pitch, there's upside to be unlocked here.

Luis Medina, 98mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/R2M773DZAA

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 12, 2023

Medina's big focus in the minors so far this year seems to have been lowering the walk rate and keeping balls on the ground. We'll see if that translates to the majors. It's too early to use a roster spot in any 12-team leagues, but perhaps there's a desperate 15-team owner or an AL-only team that could use a lottery ticket. In that case, Medina might be worth a shot in the off chance he can provide some stability to the Oakland rotation and show some growth this season.

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