Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters Watch and Underachievers, Overachievers (Week 20)

August 3, 2024

Jarod's fantasy baseball breakout hitters watch list, underachievers, and overachievers for Week 20 (2024), including hit streak leaders, ISO leaders, and more.

Welcome back to my Week 20 edition of the Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters series for the 2024 MLB season! After a one-week hiatus, I'm back, and today we'll take a look at players like Ezequiel Tovar, Colton Cowser, Matt Wallner, and more.

We will take our usual look around the league as we head into the weekend to see who is showing signs of meaningful trends that can be revealed in some form or another. Perhaps a hitter is about to break out or on the verge of a cold spell. Checking in on who's hot (or not) can highlight some notable names. Those names then become potential waiver-wire targets or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) until the rest of the fantasy community catches on. Juan Yepez and Lawrence Butler were a few good call-outs from a couple of weeks ago who have continued to hit.

Below, we'll check in on players with the longest hit streaks, highest batting average, and highest ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more. Note that totals are designated by the number in parentheses next to the player's name.

Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 7/31

Ezequiel Tovar (17)

Ezequiel Tovar is on a 17-game hit streak right now. During this stretch, the 23-year-old is 31-for-73 (.425) with seven doubles, six home runs, 15 RBI, and 16 runs scored. It's impressive that he's been able to maintain such an average with a 2:22 BB:K over this span as well.

Ezequiel Tovar game-tying home run! pic.twitter.com/Uoa7HC9Eg3

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 31, 2024

With a Contact% of 68.1%, you're bound to have bouts of streakiness and that has certainly been the case for Tovar. This hit streak was preceded by a hitless streak of seven games in which he went 0-for-28. Thankfully the good has outweighed the bad, as he now has a .290-18-52-58-4 line with a .343 wOBA and 107 wRC+. Note, however, that he's listed at the bottom of this article as an xSLG Overachiever, so another cold streak could be on the way.

(Update: Tovar's streak ended after going 0-for-4 Thursday)

Colton Cowser (13)

He's back! After hitting .303 with six home runs the first month of the season, Colton Cowser hit .184 (29-for-157) with six home runs over the next two months, then finally got hot again in July by hitting .315 with four home runs. His renaissance likely had a part in the Orioles letting Austin Hays go at the deadline and sending Heston Kjerstad back to Triple-A as there just aren't enough at-bats to go around.

Colton Cowser since the All Star Break:

.375/.435/.650
3 HR
12 RBI
10 Runs
1.805 OPS pic.twitter.com/Ri2QODXMrJ

— 𝙆am Brice (@kambrice1tv) July 30, 2024

His hot July included the current 13-game hit streak he is on as well, during which time he's gone 19-for-50 (.380). He's available in 40% of Yahoo leagues, so if you're looking for a piece of the potent Oriole offense, Cowser could be your guy. Especially because he's been penciled in at the leadoff spot over the last five games.

(Update: Cowser went 1-for-2 with a double and a walk Thursday)

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, games through 7/31

Santiago Espinal (.571)

I suppose we could have talked about Santiago Espinal in the above section as well since he's currently riding an 11-game hit streak, but he popped up here with the highest average over the last week (four games). He's batting .571 over the last week and .543 (19-for-35) during his 11-game streak. He hasn't been getting everyday at-bats until recently, but combined with his versatility (has played games at 3B, 2B, SS, LF, and DH this season), perhaps that is something that will continue. His 88.9% Contact% and 11.4% K% indicate this stretch is no fluke, and he's available in nearly all Yahoo leagues.

Jake McCarthy (.545)

Over the past week, Jake McCarthy has had a five-hit game and two three-hit games, which is the reason he popped up on this list. What makes McCarthy even more intriguing is his speed, as he's swiped 15 bags so far this season. His speed has helped him to six triples on the season as well, which is a top 10 total. He's started the last five games for the D-backs, and if he continues to do so and continues to get on base, the steals will start to pile up. He's available in 95% of Yahoo leagues for managers looking to catch lightning in a bottle.

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, games through 7/31

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Well, I'm not discussing Javier Baez. "Not gonna do it."

Matt Wallner (.615)

Matt Wallner was mentioned in my Players to Watch in the Week Ahead that was published this past Sunday, and as expected, did not play Monday or Tuesday against southpaws. But also as expected, he took "aim at Luis Severino," belting a home run off the veteran in Wednesday's matchup, along with a double off reliever Tylor Megill later in the game.

Matt Wallner is the 14th left handed batter to hit a two run homer against Luis Severino. pic.twitter.com/j7aueyAym9

— Twins Dingers (@TwinsDingers) August 1, 2024

That now makes five straight games in which he's started that the 26-year-old has collected an extra-base hit. In the 15 games since his recall, the left-handed hitter has gone 16-for-44 (.364) with five doubles and five home runs. Wallner is still available in nearly all Yahoo leagues, likely only because he doesn't start versus LHP.

Honorable Mention: Jorge Polanco (.591; one 2B, four HRs last six games)

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data as of 7/31

Xavier Edwards (5)

He was an honorable mention two weeks ago in this Breakout Watch article. Since his call-up on July 2, the 24-year-old has been on base via hit or walk in all but one of his 24 games and has collected a hit in all but four, going 34-for-86 (.395) with four doubles, a triple, and a home run. Notably, his triple and home run came in the same game when he hit for the cycle.

(Update: Edwards went 1-for-3 with a walk, but no SBs Thursday)

Honorable mention: Steward Berroa (4)

xSLG Underachiever

Data through 7/31, minimum 250 AB

Below are hitters who have some of the biggest differences between their current slugging percentage and their expected slugging percentage, or xSLG. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain. Sometimes hitters over or underperform their xSLG throughout their career, so regression to the xSLG may not happen.

Jesus Sanchez (.408 vs. .501)

Jesus Sanchez tied a career high in home runs last season after belting 14 long balls and the 26-year-old looks like he should easily surpass that number in 2024, having swatted 12 thus far. Based on his xSLG, maybe he should have already passed it. The left-handed hitter is nearly 100 points below his xSLG and is in a terrible funk right now. After a little seven-game hit streak earlier in July, the Dominican is 6-for-35 (.171) with one double and one homer over his last 10 games. He's got a strong 12.4% Barrel% and 52.1% hard-hit%, but it's not translating to extra bases (or even hits, for that matter) right now.

(Update: Sanchez went 0-for-3 with a walk Thursday)

Honorable mention: Corey Seager (.468 vs. .561; career SLG of .508)

xSLG Overachiever

Data through 7/31, minimum 250 AB

We'll touch on a hitter below who might eventually cool off. In this case, the SLG is much higher than the xSLG, and some regression should be expected. Note that the players who've shown up on this list so far this season have continued to hit well for a while, so don't expect them to go ice-cold. Rather, it's usually more of a gradual decline.

Daulton Varsho (.401 vs. .308)

Like McCarthy above, Daulton Varsho has six triples on the season, plus 16 doubles and 13 home runs, meaning more than half of his 66 hits have gone for extra bases. In 2022 when he played 151 games, Varsho had 72 singles and 53 XBH; in 2023 over 158 games, he had 70 singles and 46 XBH. The 28-year-old's launch angle has increased six degrees year-over-year, but his barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average EV have all gone down, so it's perplexing how he's been able to keep it up.

That's not the type of Baseball Savant profile you'd expect to see from someone hitting a ton of extra-base hits. The signs are pointing to regression here, so be on the lookout for a downtrend.

Also: Ezequiel Tovar (.491 vs. .404)

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