DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The PGA Championship Golf Advice (2023)

May 17, 2023

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The PGA Championship. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The PGA Championship

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The PGA Championship Link

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

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TeeOffSports membership

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• You can also try things out for $9.99 per week.

Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 19

Last Five Winners Of The PGA Championship

Expected Cut-Line

Oak Hill Country Club

7,394 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bentgrass

If you think you know this course from past iterations of PGA Championship contests held at this venue over the last 20 years, think again! Andrew Green masterfully restored the setup back to the vision that Donald Ross initially set for it in 1922, sanding out the greens during his renovation and flattening the edges of the surface to allow a more extensive collection zone because of the shaved runoff areas on the course.

That factor, combined with the removal of trees, opened this facility back up by accentuating the difficulty the field will experience over its four days here in 2023. Still, the more prominent answer comes down to a few main factors everyone should be considering when running a model.

For starters, when Oak Hill initially got clearance to host the PGA Championship years ago, it was slated to be played in the middle of August and not in May. While that might not sound overly impactful one way or another to the effects it takes on the field during this time of the year, colder weather presents a reduction off-the-tee that will lengthen the yardage on the scorecard because of the lack of rollout players will experience when hitting a driver. That doesn't mean distance is the only pre-requisite if you want to succeed on the track, but it appears as if you aren't adequately running a model if you ignore that factor completely.

Thick rough should add to that notion of presenting a more challenging time advancing your ball when you don't locate the shortgrass off the tee. However, the trick to this layout might be your ability to scramble in precarious situations since you will be forced with tons of tricky lies throughout the property.

The bunkers around the green are diabolical, often pushing players to play sideways and away from the hole. We see a similar mentality when we look at these fairway bunkers, which can cause issues if you land too close to the lip. And all of that presents this ruse of a false safety measure that generally means if you bail out, you are in more trouble than if you directly attacked these pins or fairways with aggression.

To me, that is the sort of major championship golf I love to see since it rewards the golfer playing the best and not who is making the most putts.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Tee To Green (25%)

Weighted Putting (7.5%)

Ross + Bentgrass + Mid-To-Long Par 70s - (10%)

SG: Total Hard Scoring (10%)

Weighted Bogey Avoidance (10%)

Weighted Scrambling (10%)

Weighted Sand Save (10%)

Weighted Distance (7.5%)

Total Driving + Weighted Proximity (10%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Nine Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

• Safest Play: Scottie Scheffler ($11,200) - Scottie Scheffler has produced 16 consecutive made cuts worldwide and features a robust output of 10 straight rounds of shooting par or better. The latter of that previous answer will likely be lost here at a grueling Oak Hill Country Club layout, but his first-place grade for weighted tee-to-green performance, bogey avoidance and scoring on challenging courses will go a long way in helping to tackle this track.
• Most Upside: Jon Rahm ($11,400) - With a tournament-leading seven top 10s out of the nine statistical qualifying metrics I ran this week, Jon Rahm looks to be the man to beat at Oak Hill Country Club. The Spaniard's first-place grade for total driving + weighted proximity possesses that ceiling output that we are attempting to find this week, and it shouldn't hurt matters that Rahm is one of the best in this field in avoiding making bogey.
• Favorite GPP Play: Rory McIlroy ($10,700) - It remains to be seen if I will use Rory McIlroy at Oak Hill Country Club for the 105th iteration of the PGA Championship. I am basing my current answer on a projected ownership mark barely exceeding 10 percent, although a lot of that has the potential to change between now and Thursday morning. From purely a metric standpoint, I prefer Rahm and Scheffler to McIlroy because of their better win equity returns, but game theory is always the ultimate decider. Let's see if Rory's ownership stays condensed throughout the week.
• Fade: Brooks Koepka ($10,100) - You could argue that I never will learn my lesson regarding Brooks Koepka. A $7,600 price-tag at the Masters has ballooned to $10,100, but my typical sentiment of Koepka being a massively overinflated commodity at a major championship remains steady. I get the intriguing around three top-two finishes, including two wins at the PGA over the past five years, but for as much as I thought the LIV golfers were undervalued at the Masters, the opposite feels true here in New York.
• Most Likely Winner: Jon Rahm ($11,400)

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Xander Schauffele ($9,900) - Schauffele leads the tournament with 24 consecutive made cuts and hasn't come lower than 10th in his past four starts. That is strong trending form for a golfer that is still seeking his first major championship, but it might finally be time for the American to etch his name into history by capturing one of these events. My overall infatuation with this $9,000 range does put us in an interesting spot of how we want to handle the $10,000+ section. Essentially, there are a ton of options to consider here.
• Most Upside: Xander Schauffele ($9,900), Tony Finau ($9,500) and Sungjae Im ($9,000) - You can get the entire betting card I release inside my Vegas Report weekly, but I will let everyone know that Finau, Schauffele and Im made my outright wagers for the PGA Championship. The same sentiment that I gave for Schauffele a second ago resounds loudly for Finau and Im, and I do believe we see someone around this skill level capture the second major of the year.
• Favorite GPP Play: Jordan Spieth ($9,600) - A wrist injury forced Jordan Spieth out of last week's Byron Nelson and has plummeted his ownership projection during his quest for the career grand slam. Honestly, conversations about things other than him winning this event might be good for his preparation, which I believe has always been one of the things to stunt McIlroy at the Masters. With expectations down and ownership greatly reduced, I will take my fair share of shots on Spieth and his upside if we don't receive debilitating news that says to view this otherwise.
• Fade: Cameron Smith ($9,300) - This isn't your wide-open Masters that allows Cameron Smith to get away with being wayward with his driver. I stand by my sentiment that the LIV golfers are getting overvalued this week after what we saw them do as a unit at Augusta, suggesting most of these higher-end names will not be in my player pool.
• Most Likely Winner: Xander Schauffele ($9,900)

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

• Safest Play: Jason Day ($8,900) - WE ARE SOOOOO BACK! I think there is a strong case to be made that Day could be listed for multiple categories in this section, but let's use that overall appeal to our benefit and call him the "safest" of the group. The Aussie continues to surge metrically in 2023, and the Donald Ross + mid-to-long Par 70 course findings place him in the top five this week.
• Most Upside: Tyrrell Hatton ($8,500) - Do I think Hatton has better "upside" than Day? Probably not. But I do believe he is more "bettable" than other names in the $8,000s? Yes. The volatile nature of his demeanor will be the ultimate decider, but I think we are looking at a legitimate top 12-15 golfer in the world. His major championship aspirations have a shot to be realized at Oak Hill.
• Favorite GPP Play: Let's allow ownership to normalize some before giving an answer. As of right now, I would be considering Day, Homa, Hideki, Hatton, Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood and Kim as options for my pool. I am likely out on everyone else.
• Fade: Dustin Johnson ($8,800) - The LIV fade continues. I would anticipate my projected ownership climbing over the next few days on a golfer that enters the week with good form after winning in Tulsa on the eve of the PGA Championship. I realize that is worth something, but I won't value it the same way as others.
• Most Likely Winner: Jason Day ($8,900)

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for all the answers, but I will do something I normally don't, which is show where I have every player ranked this week. If you want to see how a golfer got there or would like to weigh the data yourself, I hope you consider signing up to get these answers every week!

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Some of the Euro/LIV golfers graded lower because of the lack of data. I am willing to consider a handful of them when I did some backtesting in other areas.

Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

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