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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on June 25, 2023. Kevin Hickey's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
Today's main slate features an enticing nine-game matinee mix on DraftKings and a 10-game grouping on FanDuel, which includes the Twins-Tigers game. The weather looks like it could get tricky today, so it's essential to check in with your preferred meteorologist ahead of lock. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your builds on this slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 6/25/2023 and the slate locking at 1:35 pm ET for DraftKings and 12:10 pm ET on FanDuel. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Zack Wheeler, PHI vs. NYM ($9,500 DK, $10,500 FD)
Even among names like Nathan Eovaldi and Gerrit Cole, there's a case to be made that Wheeler is the best pitcher on this slate. Through 15 starts, he carries a 3.17 xERA and 3.68 xFIP. That includes a .336 xSLG, 4.5% barrel rate, .281 xwOBA, 5.4% walk rate, and 86.6 mph average exit velocity.
Wheeler additionally sports a strong 26.6% strikeout rate. He's surrendered one earned run or less in four of his past five outings, including matchups against juggernauts like the Braves and Diamondbacks. Wheeler draws an easier opponent today and figures to be in a good position to succeed.
The Mets score a middling 4.5 runs per game on the season. They carry an underwhelming .717 OPS against right-handed pitching, alongside a 103 wRC+. Pete Alonso ranks second in the National League with 23 home runs, but New York offers an otherwise unintimidating lineup. The only downside for Wheeler here is that the Mets only strike out at a 20.9% rate against right-handed pitching.
Eury Perez, MIA vs. PIT ($8,500 DK, $10,100 FD)
Perez's workload has been managed carefully during his rookie campaign, so we can't expect him to suddenly hurl a complete-game shutout. That said, he's worked up to 93 pitches and has completed six innings in consecutive outings. Perez entered the season as baseball's top pitching prospect, and the early returns since his debut have been phenomenal.
Through his first eight starts, Perez carries a 1.54 ERA and has surrendered one total run over his past five appearances combined. That includes a .209 xBA, .294 xwOBA, 30.8% whiff rate, and 27.8% strikeout rate.
The Pirates present a particularly weak opponent for Perez. They score just 4.1 runs per game, which includes a .693 OPS and 89 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Pittsburgh has lost 11 of their last 12 games, and they are scoring only 3.4 runs per game in June. To make matters worse, the Pirates recently lost their best hitter, Bryan Reynolds, to the injured list. Perez is well-positioned for another clean outing.
Also consider: Nathan Eovaldi, Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Matt Olson – 1B, ATL vs. Levi Stoudt ($6,300 DK, $4,000 FD)
You're going to pick up on a lot of pro-Braves sentiments as you read on. We'll start with a Matt Olson highlight. He's homered six times over his last eight games and now leads the National League with 24 home runs. Overall, Olson sports a phenomenal .538 xSLG, .376 xwOBA, 19.4% barrel rate, 55% hard-hit rate, and 94.2 mph average exit velocity.
Levi Stoudt expects to get the nod for the Reds. He only has seven innings pitched in his major-league career, resulting in an uninspiring 10.29 ERA. His minor-league numbers aren't terribly impressive, either. Stoudt posted a 5.00 ERA across 10 starts in Triple-A this season and a 4.70 ERA in 25 outings between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022. He seems ill-equipped to take on this potent Braves lineup.
Gunnar Henderson – 3B/SS, BAL vs. George Kirby ($4,800 DK, $3,300 FD)
Henderson is looking fantastic at the plate. He boasts a .457 xSLG, 13.2% barrel rate, 50.7% hard-hit rate, 91.9 mph average exit velocity, and .349 xwOBA. That amounts to a .806 OPS with 11 home runs and a 124 wRC+. Henderson has been particularly hot of late, batting .356 with six home runs in June.
George Kirby isn't the most vulnerable pitcher to attack, but he's capable of getting hit hard. Kirby surrenders a .423 xSLG and .264 xBA. He's one of the league's most consistent strike-throwers, and that sometimes gets him in trouble. In particular, left-handed batters have found success versus Kirby, slugging .464 against him.
Brandon Belt – 1B/OF, TOR vs. Luis Medina ($2,800 DK, $2,700 FD)
At age 35, Belt's power isn't what it used to be, but he remains a valuable offensive contributor. Belt carries a respectable .264/.373/.423 slash line with four home runs. That includes a 46.1% hard-hit rate, 90.8 mph average exit velocity, and an 11.2% barrel rate. He's far from the scariest bat in the Blue Jays lineup, but he hits in the top part of the order and is available to play at punt pricing.
Luis Medina has not been able to figure out major-league hitting. Since getting called up, he carries a 7.01 ERA through nine outings. That consists of a .483 xSLG, 45.5% hard-hit rate, .270 xBA, and .359 xwOBA. The Athletics employed an opener approach in front of Medina his last time out, but he expects to take on the lion's share of the workload today. Regardless, Oakland's bullpen is the worst in baseball, so Belt will look good in any event given his price.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Ronald Acuna Jr. – OF, ATL vs. Levi Stoudt ($6,500 DK, $4,600 FD)
This suggestion should come as no surprise. Acuna is a frontrunner for National League MVP, slashing .328/.403/.563 with 18 home runs and 34 stolen bases. Looking under the hood, his underlying numbers support the elite player he is. Acuna carries an insane .652 xSLG, .349 xBA, .455 xwOBA, 56.2% hard-hit rate, 95.1 mph average exit velocity, and 15.3% barrel rate. We could go on about how spectacular Acuna is, but we're just restating the obvious.
Nick Castellanos – OF, PHI vs. Carlos Carrasco ($4,200 DK, $3,400 FD)
Somewhat surprisingly, Castellanos has been the Phillies' most consistent hitter this season. He's slashing .317/.362/.497 with nine home runs and a 124 wRC+. That includes a .276 xBA, .450 xSLG, 45.5% hard-hit rate, and 10.9% barrel rate. He's not quite as likely to go yard as Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper, but Castellanos is significantly cheaper to roster. He's an excellent value.
It's been a brutal campaign for Carlos Carrasco. He boasts a 6.30 xERA and a 5.47 xFIP. That consists of a .508 xSLG, .283 xBA, .382 xwOBA, 90.6 mph average exit velocity, and a 9.6% barrel rate. Right-handed hitters are slugging .546 against him with a .390 wOBA.
Harold Ramirez – OF, TB vs. Daniel Lynch ($3,700 DK, $2,900 FD)
Like many other Tampa Bay batters, Ramirez is having an outstanding season at the plate. He's slashing .300/.342/.488 with nine home runs and a 135 wRC+. He's been particularly effective against left-handed pitchers, slugging .667 with a .278 ISO and .454 wOBA against southpaws.
Daniel Lynch doesn't present an especially difficult matchup for the Rays. He carries a 4.48 xERA and a 5.11 xFIP. That includes a .446 xSLG, and both right-handed and left-handed hitters are slugging north of .420 against him. Righties are slugging .464 against Lynch for his entire career. Ramirez, along with several other Rays bats, should be able to capitalize.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Atlanta Braves vs. Levi Stoudt
I've already asserted that I'm keyed on Braves bats today, and they're my pick for the slate's top stack. I expect them to be chalky, though the expensive price of their bats may help curtail the ownership. They carry a .795 OPS against right-handed pitching, the second-highest mark in baseball, alongside a .202 ISO and 113 wRC+.
Finding the extra salary to fit in Ronald Acuna Jr. or Matt Olson into your lineup is never a bad idea, while more accessible options like Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario are viable for one-offs or to complete stacks.
I highlighted Levi Stoudt's chances of failure above, but we can recap it again. He only has seven innings pitched in his major-league career, resulting in an uninspiring 10.29 ERA. His minor-league numbers aren't terribly impressive, either. Stoudt posted a 5.00 ERA across 10 starts in Triple-A this season and a 4.70 ERA in 25 outings between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022. It seems unlikely Stoudt will suddenly figure it out against debatably the best offense in baseball.
Favorite Plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Luis Medina
The Blue Jays score a middling 4.5 runs per game, but there's plenty of upside in this lineup. They carry a strong .752 OPS and 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. They offer cheaper bats like Brandon Belt alongside premium plays like Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and George Springer. They've fallen short of expectations this season, but this is a great matchup to unlock the Blue Jays' offense.
Luis Medina is not cutting it at the major-league level. Through nine outings, he boasts a 7.01 ERA, which includes a 5.44 xERA, .483 xSLG, 45.5% hard-hit rate, .270 xBA, and .359 xwOBA. Medina is much worse against right-handed hitting, which plays directly into the Blue Jays' strength. The Athletics may employ an opener approach preceding Medina again, but he should receive the largest workload. In any event, the Oakland bullpen carries a 5.47 ERA, by far the worst in the majors.
Favorite Plays: Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Matt Chapman, George Springer, Whit Merrifield
Also Consider: Philadelphia Phillies, Tampa Bay Rays
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