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The top daily fantasy football lineup picks for DraftKings and the Divisional Round. Ben Rolfe's NFL DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
The Divisional Round is upon us and it brings a fascinating week of matches with it. Last week was headlined by defense and offenses with major question marks. This week we have the return of four of the better offenses in the league, and we have lost three of the better defenses as well. Therefore, this week we have lots of juicy offensive options from which to make our selections.
However, one game absolutely stands out from the others, as the high flying Colts head to Kansas City to take on the offensive juggernaut that are the Chiefs. That game has the potential to be wild and should provide plenty of options in this weeks slate. Below are my DraftKings DFS Lineup Picks for the Divisional Round.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, season performances, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great value plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best DFS picks for the Divisional Round. Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups!
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DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Divisional Round Picks
Andrew Luck - IND @ KC (DK $6,200)
He may be on the road once again but I am sticking with Andrew Luck this week. The Chiefs pass defense has been poor this season and Luck has the perfect set up to take advantage. The only way the Chiefs defense has caused issues is if the pass rush has disrupted opposing quarterbacks. Well the Colts offensive line may be the best in the league right now and they have a good chance of keeping Chris Jones and company at bay long enough for Luck to pick apart that defense.
Luck also has a wonderful mix of receiving talent. He has the deep threats, the big body tight end, the chain movers and the underneath guys who can make things happen if you get them the ball. In addition, this is a game that everyone expects to be high scoring, the over/under is set at 56 and generaly thoughts are that that may even be a little low. There is some chance of snow in this game, but it is generally expected to be just snow showers, so I expect we see plenty of offense in this game. Luck could easily be the number one quarterback on the slate this week and he is currently the third highest priced, which is a gamble I like taking.
DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Divisional Round Picks
Melvin Gordon - LAC @ NE (DK $6,200)
This is obviously dependent on injury news but my feeling right now is that Gordon will be a go and should receive 15-20 touches at least, unless he aggravates the injury. The Patriots have had their trouble against the run game and Gordon has the skills to exploit them. This offense can spread the Patriots out and leave them short of numbers in the middle of the field. That should allow Gordon to make big gains and possibly even find his way into the end zone this week. It looks like being cold weather in New England which means we could see a ground controlled game from both sides. For the Chargers that feels like their best way to win and I expect we see a heavy dose of the run game from them in this matchup.
Marlon Mack - IND @ KC (DK $5,800)
Mack was superb last week against one of the better run defenses in the league. This week he is facing a defense which ranks in the bottom three in terms of rushing touchdowns allowed (29th) and yards allowed per run (31st). My feeling is that early on the Colts will look to try and control the clock and keep the ball out of the hands of Patrick Mahomes. My only concern here is that if the Colts are chasing the game then Mack's contribution could be marginalised. However, I think the Colts are going to go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs and Mack will be a big reason why.
James White - NE vs. LAC (DK $4,900)
I don't know why you wouldn't select "Playoff James" in this matchup. Not only has his post season contributions become a thing of legend amongst New England fans but he is facing a team who have struggled when facing receiving running backs this season. In the playoffs the last two seasons White has seven touchdowns and 300 combined yards in six games. Last post season alone he had four touchdowns and 134 total yards in his three games. In addition, this season when playing at home, White has 681 total yards and eight touchdowns on 97 touches. If that is not enough the Chargers ranks 23rd in DVOA when they face off against receiving backs this season. White could be an big money winner and at a very favorable price.
DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Divisional Round Picks
Michael Thomas - NO vs. PHI (DK $7,900)
Despite him being the best pure receiver I can see people pivoting away from Thomas on this slate. The Eagles limited the Bears offensive output last week with a good pass rush, and the way the Saints offense limped home will have frightened people. However, I think there are two key elements that mean the Saints offense can still be effective this week. Firstly, their offensive line is better than the Bear when it comes to pass protection and that will be key. Secondly, Drew Brees is better than Mitchell Trubisky under pressure and he will still be able to push the ball down the field, even with pass rushers in his face. The Eagles secondary is a complete mess and if their pass rush cannot disturb Brees regularly then Thomas could have an absolute monster game.
Chester Rogers - IND @ KC (DK $3,700)
For me this is the position to try and go for budget saving options and Rogers is a guy I really like to fill that role. Rogers was a big part of the offense early in the game against the Texans last week. He seemed to fade out of the game a little as the Colts went run heavy and quite vanilla in the second half. However, the fact he was so heavily used early on, with five targets and four receptions is something that makes me optimistic about his usage this week. At a bargain basement price, I like leaning on a receiver that Luck seems to trust in a game I expect to be high scoring.
Keith Kirkwood - NO vs. PHI (DK $3,300)
Kirkwood has been a sneaky part of this offense in the second half of the season. He appears to have somewhat supplanted Tre'Quan Smith as a wide receiver option in the Saints offense and has been targeted two or more times in each of the game between Weeks 10 and 16. In addition, he did not see a single snap in the season finale, while Smith remained on the field and saw targets. For me that is a good sign that Kirkwood will feature heavily in this game. As I mentioned above with Thomas, I think this is a game where the Saints offence can still have success, even against the Eagles defensive line. I am not expecting a huge output from Kirkwood but I can envisage a potential double-digit return for a small investment
DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Divisional Round Picks
Travis Kelce - KC vs. IND (DK $7,000)
This is a matchup between the two teams who allow the most points to tight ends that are playing this week. The Colts allow an average of 17.7 fantasy points to opposing tight ends on the road and cannot see that number going down this week. There is no obvious candidate on the Colts defense to cover Kelce and he is Mahomes most consistent target this season. Kelce has seen 10 or more targets 10 times this season and only once has he seen five or fewer. He had a career high in receptions (103), yards (1336), and touchdowns (10) and has shown up for the Chiefs in the playoffs in previous years.
Eric Ebron - IND @ KC (DK $5,500)
If you need to save a little then Ebron is also a nice way to look. The Chiefs are slightly better against the tight end position at home, but they rank second among the home teams this weekend. Ebron should have had two touchdowns last week, but dropped one in the end zone after a good hit from a defender. Ebron feels a dead certainty to see targets in the red zone and could even have a multi-touchdown game in this one.
Hunter Henry - LAC @ NE (DK $2,800)
This is the only home team who allow more points to the tight end position than the Chiefs. This pick is not for the faint of heart as I expect Henry to be on a fairly strict snap count in this game. Coming back from a major injury Henry will be fresh, but his mobility might be limited. The Patriots have struggled covering tight ends at times this season, and Henry is not someone they are likely to focus a huge amount of attention on, given they are facing Gordon and Keenan Allen.
DraftKings DFS Defenses - Divisional Round Picks
New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles (DK $3,300)
A tough week for defense. Some really good offenses and some pretty meh defense likely to be on show in this round. Where you do have good defenses, they are facing good offenses and that is kind of the case here. However, with their home crowd behind them I think the Saints can at least limit what the Eagles will do on offense. I am not expecting another 48-7 type game but I struggle to see the Eagles offense running wild in this game. I do not feel great about it, but of all the defenses on offer this week they are who I feel best about.
