Biggest Surprises of the Fantasy Football Season: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlooks

January 10, 2026

John reflects on the season's biggest fantasy football surprises, and the 2026 fantasy football outlooks for players like Brian Thomas, George Pickens, Michael Wilson, more.

The fantasy football season is over, and we're here to recap some of the biggest surprises. Even though how players performed this season isn't always a great indicator of how they'll do the next year, it's worth looking back on the surprises and trying to find out why we didn't expect them to happen.

If it helps us learn how to be better fantasy managers in 2026, it's absolutely worth doing. Maybe many of the surprise performances will turn out to be one-season flukes, but we shouldn't ignore them completely.

Being ahead of the curve in noticing trends that apply to certain players and using that to draft better next season is a good strategy to use.

Drake Maye Became An Elite Fantasy Quarterback

This may not have been a huge surprise to some -- or rather, the fact that he had a nice season didn't come out of nowhere. He showed flashes in 2024 and actually had a few good performances. But the horrible play of his offensive line, the lack of talent at pass-catcher, and the poor coaching job the previous staff did made it too tough for him to be consistent.

This year, he got upgrades along the offensive line, including the team spending the fourth overall pick on offensive tackle Will Campbell, who played extremely well. It also paid up for wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who's been very important to the offense.

Drake Maye's rolling throw to Efton Chism is the kind of route WRs earn by blocking.

▷physical release
▷absurd location on the move
▷single high & a loaded box
▷sprint naked flood pic.twitter.com/7va7MhYQJE

— ZeeBee (@BellinoZee) December 31, 2025

2026 Fantasy Football Outlook:

Maye is ridiculously talented. He's capable of making fantastic throws off-platform, is highly mobile, has rushing upside, and has a competent coaching staff that can design offensive plays that consistently succeed. When you look at it from that angle, it's not much of a surprise.

The big lesson here is to look for quarterbacks with improving situations to draft in the later rounds the next season. I'm not talking about the "well, they should be better" situations, like with the Las Vegas Raiders. But Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel proved his ability to overachieve with the Tennessee Titans as a head coach. That's a real upgrade. Young, hypermobile QBs are great picks to draft when they're not selected highly.

Brian Thomas Jr. Was A League Loser

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. finished the 2024 NFL season with an epic playoff run. From Week 15 to Week 17, the weeks of the fantasy playoffs for most leagues, Thomas scored 32.5, 28.2, and 23.9 PPR fantasy points, averaging 28.2 per game.

He was the WR1 in points per game and overall points in those three weeks, and was breaking out in a massive way to end his rookie season. His elite performances skyrocketed his eventual ADP for the 2025 season, and he ended up as a first- or second-round pick in the vast majority of leagues.

BRIAN THOMAS JR.!

📺: #JAXvsLV on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/Plt8MEmW32

— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024

From what we've seen this season, his 2024 performance was possibly a fluke. Though he's missed significant time due to injury, he's the WR47 in PPR fantasy points per game this year, which wouldn't even have him as a WR3. He's not been worth starting.

Worse yet, he killed most fantasy teams he was drafted to with his minimalist performances. He struggled with ailments in his wrist, which contributed to his inability to catch the ball and likely subsequent lack of targets. And target competition in WR Jakobi Meyers was brought in later in the season, with slot receiver Parker Washington getting work, too.

Brian Thomas Jr. on a HUGE 3rd down, had a BAD drop, he can’t have this happen 💔 pic.twitter.com/iT3neJYXYD

— SM Highlights (@SMHighlights1) October 12, 2025

Last season, every other starting pass-catcher for the Jaguars suffered season-ending injuries. This led to Thomas getting 12 targets per game over the last six weeks of the regular season, which was abnormally high. That obviously didn't repeat this year, and probably won't next year.

But the passing offense has been thriving, with quarterback Trevor Lawrence putting up an MVP-caliber run to end the year.

2026 Fantasy Football Outlook:

Thomas will probably bounce back next season, though it's likely we don't see him return to 2024 fantasy playoff form, as that was largely driven by a ton of volume.

Thomas could be a fine pick in the middle rounds of next year's draft. If he's fully healthy all season, he could be a nice flex player with WR2 upside. But the play of his team's other pass-catchers could also force him into a more complementary role than would be ideal for consistent startable upside.

Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and George Pickens All Smashed

The offseason narratives around Los Angeles Rams wide receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams (hamstring) and Dallas Cowboys WR George Pickens were a bit off-target. Both Adams and Pickens were expected to have solid seasons.

But it was believed that Nacua and Adams would have lower ceilings due to the target competition between them, and that Pickens would be hampered by fellow Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb. That wasn't the case. Pickens absolutely crushed Lamb production-wise, and Adams and Nacua were two of the best receivers in fantasy.

Another week. Another insane catch by Puka.

📺 @NFLonFOX | #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/XBeOC0Nq5G

— x - Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) January 4, 2026

While Adams' arrival in L.A. was great for Nacua's fantasy value, though, the same can't be said for Lamb. He thrived in the dominant WR1 role in previous seasons with the Cowboys, when the team often fielded far inferior WR2s. But Pickens siphoned quite a few targets away from him.

Going from over 10.0 targets per game in 2023, the season in which Lamb finished as the WR1, to less than nine per game this year has sunk his fantasy value. Pickens outscored Lamb in five of the healthy games they played together in 2025 and had four outings with over 29 PPR fantasy points, while Lamb never managed more than 25 points in a single contest.

Take a moment to be in awe of George Pickens. Not a single circus catch last night. Just pure effort, hustle, and fight. The guy absolutely refused to go down. pic.twitter.com/3ilOlj83oz

— Dan Rogers (@DannyPhantom24) November 18, 2025

2026 Fantasy Football Outlook:

The lesson here is pretty obvious. Highly talented players who get huge upgrades in their situations can dominate, even if they've had one or more previous seasons in which their play was lackluster at times on worse teams. Adams previously played for the New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders, and Pickens for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

All three of those teams have had dismal passing attacks for years. The outlook for the WR1 of the team that gets an elite WR2 joining the fray is a bit murkier. That said, sometimes you just have to trust the offensive minds running the show. Rams head coach Sean McVay is absolutely elite. Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer has a long history of experience and success.

We couldn't really predict how much Lamb would start dropping the ball, though. That said, he's probably not an amazing draft pick in 2026.

Elite Running Backs Crushed Receivers In Value

It stands to reason to believe that picking elite receivers in fantasy football is a good way to get to the playoffs and win championships. However, this year, receivers just weren't that great. This shouldn't have been a huge surprise, as it was the case last year. But it seems odd.

The vast majority of fantasy leagues award a full or half-point per reception. You'd think that receivers, often getting a full point per catch, would be fantasy's best players. But instead, by far, the most important player to have is a workhorse running back.

Last year, it took a massive Triple Crown effort from Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase to be the highest-scoring non-RB in fantasy football. This year, it was San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey who took the top spot.

Bijan Robinson 93 YARDS!

LARvsATL on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN App pic.twitter.com/OTqGarUX9F

— NFL (@NFL) December 30, 2025

There were only seven receivers in the top-30 scorers in fantasy points per game. Four of the top six were running backs. If you had Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, or Christian McCaffrey, you had a far higher chance of making the playoffs than if you didn't.

Finding those select few elite RBs is crucial because not having a good starting running back makes it nearly impossible to compete with RBs who consistently put up good totals and have massive ceilings of 30 or more points.

Michael Wilson secures his 2nd TD of the day

LARvsAZ on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/fWtoUcUR4b

— NFL (@NFL) December 7, 2025

2026 Fantasy Football Outlook:

If Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson can become an elite must-start fantasy receiver midseason, it's worth considering drafting as many good starting RBs as possible early, hammering mid-round receivers, taking some starting RBs late in the draft, and saving your waiver picks for the next WR waiver wire hero.

It's hard to see the Zero RB draft strategy continuing to be so popular moving forward. Next season, in redraft leagues, it seems more likely that we will see all the good starting RBs get taken in the first two to three rounds. So, if you plan on going WR-heavy early, you might want to reconsider.

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