MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/22/2025)

Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/22/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Rafael Devers, Matt Olson, Fernando Tatis Jr. and more!

Welcome Back, RotoBallers! We have only six teams on the slate for us tonight! With only a few places to choose from, we are going to get creative on this slate. With six teams, let's explore six home run possibilities, taking one from each team. I obviously don't recommend betting them all together, but each of these is great to play on its own or in smaller parlays.

As you consider the home run props on the board this Monday, be sure to consider several key factors, including batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. 

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, September 22, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/22/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Monday, September 22:

• Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
• Andres Chaparro, Washington Nationals
• Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
• William Contreras, Milwaukee Brewers
• Rafael Devers, San Francisco Giants
• Ivan Herrera, St. Louis Cardinals

Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+328 DraftKings)

The first game on set for us is the Atlanta Braves taking on the Washington Nationals. The Braves will be seeing MacKenzie Gore take the mound today. Gore, although he started really well, has started to fade towards the end of the season. His power numbers have become more and more concerning as the season has gone on. He has a 12.4% Barrel% against all hitters this season with a 1.1 HR/9, which is second-highest on the slate.

Matt Olson in September:

1.4 fWAR (1st)
238 wRC+ (1st)
.517 wOBA (1st)
.828 SLG (1st)
1.266 OPS (1st)
.453 ISO (1st)
7 HR (T-1st)#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/d3B7ICRaSk

— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) September 20, 2025

Gore has traditionally been worse against RHP this season, but the lefties have also had their way with him. He has a .377 SLG, a .145 ISO, 13% Barrel%, and a 40.7% HardHit% all against lefties. Matt Olson has, oddly enough, been the best lefty hitter for the Braves this season. He has a team-high Barrel% of 19.4% with an SLG of .478 and an ISO of .185. Drake Baldwin also has looked solid against lefties and could be a good pivot if you want someone with a little more juice to the odds.

Andres Chaparro OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+790 DraftKings)

On the other side of this game, we have a bit tougher matchup, and probably the least likely option to happen on this slate. The Nationals are going against Chris Sale in this one, and had he not been injured, might have made it a race for the NL CY Young. He was able to hold the Nationals to only three hits in eight innings in their meeting just last week.

Andres Chaparro has had some interesting ABs against Chris Sale. He is still looking for his first home run against a lefty this season, and he has had the hard contact to make it happen. In six ABs, he has had a Hard Hit in four of them. Chris Sale has had the majority of hard contact come off his four-seamer and Changeup, which he has a .450 SLG and .514 SLG on them.

This one is more of a shot in the dark, but I do like what I have seen from Andres Chaparro. In 40 ABs last year, he had two home runs off LHP, with a 16.1% Barrel%. This season, he is up to an 18.2% Barrel%...

Fernando Tatis Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+384 DraftKings)

I debated a while on this one between Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ramon Laureano, as both guys have crushed RHP this season. In the end, I gave the edge to the guy who is hitting the four-seamer better. Freddy Peralta's hardest hit pitch this season had been his four-seamer, which he throws 52% of the time. Nine home runs have been hit off of it by RHB with a .372 SLG and .189 ISO.

Tatis is hitting the four-seamer to the tune of a .534 SLG and a .214 ISO. Against RHP this season, Tatis is sporting a .465 SLG, .185 ISO, 15% Barrel%, and a 53.1% HardHit%. He is likely to lead off in this one, which should give him at least three looks to get a home run against Freddy Peralta.

William Contreras OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+541 DraftKings)

Let's look at the other side of this game, where we have Nick Pivetta on the mound. Pivetta sports our highest HR/9 at 1.13 and a 12.3% Barrel% against both sides of the plate. RHB have hit him hard this season with 15 home runs on the season and are hitting him for a .370 SLG, .167 ISO, 11.5% Barrel%, and 44% HardHit%. Pivetta has given up a home run in four of his last five games. We could see another one here against the Brewers.

William Contreras lines up against Pivetta and his lengthy pitch mix. It's the four-seamer and cutter that we are going to keep an eye on the most, however. Pivetta throws those two pitches 54% of the time. RHB hit the four-seamer for a SLG of .478 SLG and ISO of .239 with 10 home runs, and the cutter for a .450 SLG, and .250 ISO and three home runs. Contreras has combined for five home runs on those two pitches, and the cutter he is hitting extremely well with a SLG of .588!

Rafael Devers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+392 DraftKings)

For the last game of the night, we have a banger matchup, and what is probably my favorite play on the whole day. Rafael Devers is loading up against Michael McGreevy. Lefties have been crushing the ball against McGreevy this season. He has a 1.47 HR/9 against LHB compared to the just .36 HR/9 against RHB. He is posting a .500 SLG, .186 ISO, with an 11.3% Barrel%, and a 43% HardHit%.

Rafael Devers has been elite against the RHP this season. He has 23 home runs on the season and is pushing a .495 SLG, a .239 ISO, a 19% Barrel%, and a 55.4% HardHit%. He has crushed the righties this season and gets another opportunity to go yard again and hit his 33rd home run of the season. Devers already has a home run earlier this month against him, as well as a single, both of which went for over 100 mph exit velocity. There's a good chance we might see him hit another one here tonight!

Ivan Herrera OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+710 DraftKings)

Last but not least, we have the Cardinals taking on Justin Verlander. Verlander has been solid this year in not allowing a lot of hard contact. He has a sub 40% HardHit% against both sides of the plate. He has only given up 13 home runs on the season, but let's see if we can make it one more here. The righties in the lineup likely have the best opportunity here, as they have barreled him much harder to the tune of an 11.7% Barrel% compared to just 6.7% against the lefties.

That being said, I think Ivan Herrera lines up the best against him from this Cardinals lineup. The righty is hitting RHP pretty well this season, sporting a .396 SLG, a 13.2% Barrel%, and a 46.7% HardHit%. For Verlander, the four-seamer and the slider have been his primary pitches. It's the four-seamer, however, that has been crushed for five home runs and a .435 SLG and .191 ISO. Herrera has three home runs off the four-seamer and an SLG of .351. It's not the best, but it will due here for what we need.

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