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Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/9/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Matt Olson, Corbin Carroll, Zach Neto, Willson Contreras, Trevor Story.
We've a smaller slate of MLB action on Monday, which means we've got fewer spots to choose from for home run player prop bets today, but there are still some intriguing matchups. Today's hitters include Matt Olson, Corbin Carroll, Zach Neto, Willson Contreras, and Trevor Story. Each of these players is either swinging a hot bat or in an exploitable matchup.
The strategy behind choosing home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to make sure we're getting a favorable price in terms of betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll quickly.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, June 9, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/9/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Monday, June 9:
- Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
- Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Zach Neto, Los Angeles Angels
- Willson Contreras, St. Louis Cardinals
- Trevor Story, Boston Red Sox
Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+235 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Matt Olson
Brand New Ballgame pic.twitter.com/9c3pwdtZtv
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 7, 2025
Olson is currently slashing .236/.342/.460 with 13 home runs in 278 plate appearances. This is far from what we're used to seeing from Olson, but the batted ball metrics indicate that he deserves better results. The veteran first baseman has a 19% barrel rate (97th percentile) and a .559 expected slugging percentage, per Baseball Savant.
It's been a slow start to June in terms of home runs, with only one so far, but that includes a 143 wRC+. It's also worth noting that if we look at Olson's Baseball Savant player page, we see that he's performing well above league average in xwOBA over the last 100 plate appearances. This means that he continues to generate hard contact.
This is a left-handed hitter who performs better against righties, featuring an .808 OPS (.782 against lefties). That's good news for tonight's matchup against Aaron Civale. The Brewers' righty has struggled with the long ball this season -- especially against lefties -- allowing a .398 wOBA and 3.00 HR/9 against them this year.
It's also worth noting that American Family Field ranks 11th for left-handed power over the last three years. While the price is a bit expensive at (+235) odds, I'm willing to take a shot on Olson given the hard contact and exploitable matchup.
Corbin Carroll OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Corbin Carroll sends his 17th HR of the season 438 feet 💪 pic.twitter.com/OlUOVptJk1
— MLB (@MLB) June 4, 2025
Carroll currently has a .259/.339/.565 slash with 18 home runs in 286 plate appearances. This includes an impressive 16.6% barrel rate, which is a 9.4% increase from last year. The D-Backs' superstar has two home runs in his last five games, set for a good matchup at home against Mariners' righty Emerson Hancock.
This is a pitcher who has given up a 2.03 HR/9 against left-handers this season. When you add in the fact that Carroll performs better at home with a .920 OPS (.888 OPS on the road), you can see why this bet looks appealing.
What we're witnessing from Carroll this year is a young star growing into his power following a disappointing 2024 season. Carroll is well on his way to setting a new career-high in home runs.
Like with Olson, the price is a bit expensive, but when you factor in Carroll's skills with Hancock's struggles, you come away feeling confident with this pick.
Zach Neto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+360 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Neto is building off what he showed in last year's breakout season, slashing .267/.303/.497 with 10 home runs in 198 plate appearances. This includes a 15.3% barrel rate, which is a big jump from last season's 8.4%.
Zach Neto crushes his 4th leadoff home run of the season 440 feet 🤯 pic.twitter.com/ocUOvkwerJ
— MLB (@MLB) May 27, 2025
The Angels' shortstop has only one homer in his last 11 games, but this looks like a good opportunity for him to hit his 11th. That's because it's against a lefty in Jeffrey Springs.
For one, Neto has performed well against left-handers this season, as highlighted by a .640 slugging percentage (.475 against righties). Secondly, Springs has had a tough time against righties, featuring a 1.66 HR/9 (0.68 HR/9 against lefties).
With how hard Neto has hit the ball this year, we'll take a shot that he can get to 11 home runs tonight in an exploitable matchup against Springs. The price looks appealing at (+360) odds, so we'll take the plunge on this one.
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Willson Contreras adds some insurance in the 8th 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/tjVGjWUD79
— MLB (@MLB) June 7, 2025
After a slow start to the season, Contreras now has a .250/.324/.401 slash with seven home runs in 260 plate appearances. The veteran's wRC+ has steadily increased, from 83 wRC+ in March/April to 125 wRC+ in May and now 147 wRC+ in June so far.
We've seen Contreras hit a home run as recently as June 6th, so why not take a shot on him to do so again in a good spot against Blue Jays' righty Jose Berrios? Berrios has allowed a 1.3 HR/9 this season, but it gets worse against righties with a 1.73 HR/9 (0.91 HR/9 vs. lefties).
Contreras has six of his seven homers against right-handers this year, so we'll take a shot in this favorable spot against Berrios. It also helps that Contreras is currently well above league average in xwOBA in his last 100 plate appearances, according to Baseball Savant.
Considering each of these factors, you have to like the price we're getting at (+475) odds at DraftKings. There's some value in taking Contreras at this cost. This is a hitter with 20-25 HR power who has a reasonable chance to go yard in this spot.
Trevor Story OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Trevor Story makes it back-to-back homers for Boston! pic.twitter.com/8DIZk2ICGd
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 9, 2025
Story is one of the streakiest hitters in baseball, currently slashing .226/.274/.346 with eight home runs in 260 plate appearances. After an abysmal May that featured a .240 slugging percentage, Story has gotten back on track in June so far, including a .520 slugging percentage.
The veteran shortstop has homered twice in his last nine games, including one against the Yankees last night on Sunday Night Baseball. With how streaky Story can be, we're going to take a shot that this is the start of a power binge. It's worth noting that this is supported by the batted-ball data on Baseball Savant, as Story is trending upwards in xwOBA in his last 100 plate appearances.
This is a good spot against Rays' righty Shane Baz. One of the areas where Baz has struggled is against right-handers, as he's allowed a .366 wOBA and 2.08 HR/9. That's bad news in a hitter-friendly environment like Fenway Park.
When you consider Story's recent performance along with the appealing price and favorable matchup, it's worth taking a look at this home run prop. You have to like the longshot payout of (+600) odds here.
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